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NEWCASTLE - 8

Old 20th Jul 2016, 13:31
  #7961 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 4,945
Got to agree with HMB again - LS and TOM are very quiet during the winter, so to say they are 2 strongest is nonsense (in fact, is TCX not on a par with TOM?).

I've noticed no loyalty in terms of airlines - people pick and chose depending on what suits, and when booking themselves it's not unknown to be going out on one and back on another.

Getting back to the original point, the concern is not about sustainable expansion but about whether non-based additional capacity is going to lead to a reduction from the based operators, which would have an impact which would outweigh any benefits
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Old 20th Jul 2016, 13:54
  #7962 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posts: 242
Don't know why people think TCX would drop an airframe, most of the new routes are not served by TCX anyway and it actually increased ACE this year in place of Tunisia and Sharm and their holidays are selling really well. They have added a flight to Almeria for next year as well.

The airlines obviously know what they are doing and they know that ALC, PMI etc are a licence to print money and as long as the folk of the north east want it they will keep operating them.

Easyjet have said they are pleased with the base on more than one occassion so cannot see them pulling out anytime soon either.
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Old 20th Jul 2016, 16:33
  #7963 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 569
I have just heard Graham Mason from the airport on the news saying that Brexit will cause fewer passengers to use NCL airport. I think he was talking about 2017. He also seemed to be saying that pax numbers are falling this year.

I hope hes not using the figures published on the airport website for June which are questionable. ( see my earlier post No 7920)

Did anyone else hear this? Please confirm that I did not miss hear.

Seems to go against all the news re Ryanair and extra pax numbers.
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Old 20th Jul 2016, 16:44
  #7964 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 875
Thomas Cook have a very good number of loyal customers just like TOM and are a massive name on the high street when it comes to holidays. Cant see why they would drop a airframe when its LS who fly every single route FR have announced apart from the 3 Polish ones.
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 00:50
  #7965 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
Can we come back to this discussion in 6 months when Ryanair announce their winter schedule (and probably more routes) and then 12 months, with S18 and probably more routes) and then in 3 years to see where it's left NCL and it's incumbents?

I still can't get how this is a problem, it could lead to a Ryanair base if Brexit works out... It would definitely have led to one if we hadn't left and then it would be a much more secure base than now.

Easyjet are looking to expand at NCL... Guess how! By operating BRS and BFS from BRS and BFS, as well as PMI from PMI and maybe BCN from BCN. SXF is also operated from SXF... Now, how can you tell me that if this brings us 5-10 more Easyjet routes, without making the base any smaller, that that is a bad thing? EZY could probably increase their base size by 50% by doing that (if they do it - which I sincerely hope they do!) I know I'm being optimistic but what else is left?

Ryanair is not posing a risk to the airport - in the past, when they did, the airport said no to them to protect the airlines already at NCL. In the current climate, the airlines at NCL obviously see this as sustainable, and I agree, because we're way behind UK growth at the minute

I mean haway it's cheap seats to bucket and spade destinations, it's not as if American is going to fly to JFK daily... That would be overkill and trashing yields for them and UA.

Of course if we do lose out Ryanair will get the blame, they're growing at an acceptable pace in my opinion. If they were doing 2 daily ALC and PMI and dailies to AGP, FAO, TFS from the outset I'd get worried but they know the market and they're doing it very well I think

LS will not downsize, neither will Thomson. If Easyjet do it will be because of Brexit or Scottish APD. Ditto for Thomas Cook, and you can add their own company failings to that list as well although they aren't too bad for the moment.... Oh and the small matter of Turkey, Greece, Egypt and Tunisia being their bread and butter. Flybe, Bmir, Eastern... Nothing to do with Ryanair anyway.

Realistically there would only be a limited amount more jobs created... They already support jobs at the airport though, by having planes there, it's not as if Ryanair self handle or anything, they're keeping jobs safe. But I feel like I'm wasting my time and some people are just going to think we'd be better off without them anyway.

By the way, I think I am aiming high, because all I want to do is fly, I don't care who with, the job satisfaction would make up for it and I'll slum it wherever because it's the job I aspire to. The prestige of just being a pilot means more than the prestige of which airline I fly for in which country. I've worked 54 hours this week, I just finished at 00:30, one day off and then another 4 on, I'm not afraid to work for things I want... And to be able to sit up front in a commercial airliner is what I want

I do not see Ryanair as being the final nail in the coffin for Newcastle, I see them shaking things up a bit yes, because it feels like NCL has been a bit of a licence to print money at times for some airlines, and it's going to make them rethink and reshuffle and hopefully bring more variety. I see LPA and SXF from EZY as very good signs, as well as Almeria from TCX and LS (even if it is frustrating that they've both gone for the same place and LS didn't bother with Thessaloniki... But oh well!)
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 13:04
  #7966 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Howard, Silicon
Posts: 16
You're a very knowledgeable and intelligent young man EK77WNCL, indeed judging by his manner it is Hearty Meatballs who is acting like the child.

As repugnant as FR are, they are not quite the airline they once were, and hopefully in the coming months and years we see destinations added that we wouldn't see from NCL otherwise. Of course ops will start initially with some bucket and spade routes, however the fact that there's also 3 previously unserved destinations is promising.

Hearty Meatballs points are sound in principle. However, in reality there are not many airlines one could reasonably expect to open base in NCL. If he had his way I suspect we would gain new routes no faster than we'd lose existing ones. The whole industry is far from perfect, but I feel comfortable in saying that this is a positive move for both NCL and it's customers.

Good luck with your career EK77WNCL, and never let anybody make you feel bad for aiming high for the day you stop dreaming is the day that you die - and the power of determination should never be underestimated.

Last edited by Rain dog; 21st Jul 2016 at 13:07. Reason: syntax
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 13:18
  #7967 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Howard, Silicon
Posts: 16
Two final points before I disappear:

The comment about passengers struggling to adapt to foreign crews is quite possibly the most ridiculous thing that I've ever read on here (and on a personal note, I'd take a young Pole stewardess any day over some of the fishwives plucked from closer to home).

I will second Hearty Meatballs in regards to the ME carriers. Also, I'm VERY surprised that if you've educated yourself in world issues that you'd even consider working in countries with such despicable human rights records.
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 13:53
  #7968 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Soon to be out of the EU.
Posts: 0
I think we've all remained very adult and have all put across our points of view in a respectful way.

I don't understand the comment on me and routes however. If FR opened up a whole host of new exciting destinations then fair enough. However, they haven't brought anything new and are simply cherry picking the beach flights. The new Polish roues whilst new will likely finish the morning after whatever incentive they're being paid to fly them. I'm sure you all can guess that I am a cynic!

I for one am a huge supporter of the North East. We are hard working people and we deserve real jobs and real career prospects and that comes from flying jobs, maintaining or controlling the aircraft. No offence to anyone but being a sales assistant (which I was at one point) a 'barrista' or a Subway 'sandwich artist' are not careers and that's all our airport will become - a mini metro centre with a runway attached with low paid, low prospect employment and seasonal at that.

We the north deserve better. I make no apology for thinking that. If brexit is the catastrophe that people make out to be then we need to fight for every *real* job. People need prospects and sustainable employment in real viable jobs.
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 15:19
  #7969 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 875
lets give it time i for one think brexit will be what the country needs in the long run but lets leave politics out of it and see where we are in 12 months. The fact FR flights are after the based aircraft are away seems like a very good way of keeping all partys happy and keeping the airport busy in what would normally be a quiet period and lets not forget there is faster growing demand for bucket and spade routes with the ever growing problems that has shut down routes like SSH/NBE and likely further reductions in BJV/AYT/DLM with the decline in Turkey. Those people will be looking to holiday still.

I also think if FR really wanted to trash the place they would of came in heavy handed 3 or so years ago , Just my two cents.
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 18:01
  #7970 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: UK
Posts: 233
Looking at the routes that FR have launched from LBA, maybe FR's strategy is to specifically take LS head on. As I said before, FR do not go head to head with U2 on many route pairs.

I wonder if they think that LS are more vulnerable than other operators because of their package holiday business and that their focus on outbound traffic from the North of England & Scotland makes them less agile than U2 and FR - ie they they cant move aircraft to overseas bases?
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Old 21st Jul 2016, 21:42
  #7971 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 2,599
Tigertanaka,

To Jet2 's credit their model is significantly differentiated in that they drive Jet2 Holidays, which is a strong one stop shop for family package type holidays.

FR have traditionally picked its battles worth weaker rivals, they've put enormous competition easyJet's way, so much so easyJet no longer have bases in Rome or Madrid, clearly it is more than Ryanair who had added to easyJet's woes in those locations. Nonetheless, entry on STN GLA and EDI and more recently BFS, all make file quite a statement.

So I'd say the challenge especially currently by FR to easyJet is enormous.
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Old 22nd Jul 2016, 10:44
  #7972 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Hartlepool
Posts: 90
I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out over the coming years, I do feel like Ryanair are really going after LS with this move however - they seem to be doing similar at BHX. Although as others have mentioned they should be able to survive off the package holidays

On another note, anyone have info on the loads to Turkey recently? Flying with TCX to Antalya next Sunday (31st). Been on Thomas Cook website and it would let me buy 9 seats so wondering if there has been a big drop off with recent events? At 300 return also, they are relatively cheap which would suggest them trying to fill seats.

Obviously I'm aware airlines oversell particularly over the summer but 9 seats, at fairly low prices this late?

We're still fairly happy to go, the resort areas seem totally safe and our hotel has very good security - just hoping it isn't affecting the airlines drastically.
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Old 22nd Jul 2016, 13:22
  #7973 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Durham
Posts: 391
Are the passenger figures correct for June 16 v June 15. Seems low. and bucks trend of growth in other months.
Source: Airport stat tool:

Passenger Statistics
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Old 22nd Jul 2016, 14:08
  #7974 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 569
Statistics

Please see my earlier post no 7920. It may shine some light on the situation.
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Old 22nd Jul 2016, 14:31
  #7975 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 875
TCX have dropped AYT down to 1x Week from S17 & dropped BJV altogether so i would suggest demand to Turkey is at a new low
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Old 22nd Jul 2016, 20:10
  #7976 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
Will they be replacing the lost frequencies with anything interesting? Or even something not so interesting... Anything?

Thank you very much Rain Dog, I'll remember that and yeah I get what you mean about the middle east and working conditions... I've heard that the pilots are treated alright on the whole, although it would probably take a lot of getting used to

Heartymeatballs, I agree I think we've all been respectful, and I really hope we nee new destinations too, ones that actually offer something to the region. But I really do think that the way they're stepping into the market at the minute is the right way to do it, filling in where they knwo there's demand, and when that settles, they can expand further outward (like the Polish routes - a massive vote of confidence IMO)

Al we can do is wait, see and hope!
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Old 22nd Jul 2016, 23:17
  #7977 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 875
Only new TCX routes are Paphos & Almeria so far with rises in PMI & TFS Frequencies.
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Old 23rd Jul 2016, 10:46
  #7978 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Durham
Posts: 391
Paris -Orly Airport operated by Hop!

I see Wikipedia page for Orly destinations is showing Newcastle operated by Hop! (Not "Air France by Hop!") commencing June 1st 2017
Any substance to this? - seems odd for someone to have entered as a prank. Doesn't show as available on Hop! website but date is nearly 11 months away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orly_A...d_destinations


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Old 23rd Jul 2016, 11:15
  #7979 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
I very much doubt that... Unless they want to target leisure more and run it alongside CDG, but then why Hop!, surely Transavia would make more sense for leisure if that was the plan

I call cow pat on this one
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Old 23rd Jul 2016, 12:29
  #7980 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 875
HOP on CDG and not ORL?
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