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Old 14th Aug 2009, 19:21
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Montrel-Dubai - what a load of rubbish I suggest you check your dictionary for the word 'consoliodation'. What we have at NCL is a management team with the lack of vision to get the routes we need. Whilst Liverpool and Bristol have lost routes in the past couple of years like Newcastle these have been more than replaced by new ones a situation which has not happened at Newcastle. While Newcastle may have gained scheduled services to Split, Malta and Sharm-el-Sheik we have lost, totally, Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Valencia and seen massive reductions in frequencies to Cork, Dublin, Hanover, Pisa and Stansted

apaul - agree with you there are airports worse off than NCL but we are heading that way unless NCL management get their fingers out. We are to reliant on the bucket and spade routes. Just look at the number of routes we have to Spain a country like the UK deep in recesion, however we are served with bad links to France and Germany, the first of the European countries to emerge from recession. This is not only bad for the airport but also the wider regional economy.
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Old 14th Aug 2009, 20:53
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On a more positive note....FLYBE Winter Timetable

Southampton increases from 3 to 4 flights daily Tues to Fri till Feb then 4 x daily Wed - Fri with 3 daily Mon and latterly Tues.

Jersey NEW winter route at 3 x weekly. (W/F/Su)



Belfast City 2x daily M - F...1 x daily Sa/Su

Exeter 1 x Daily

Cardiff 3 x weekly (Th/F/Su)

Gatwick 4 x daily M - Fr 2x Sa 3x Su reducing to 3 xM/Tu in Jan/Feb increasing back to 4 in March..2 x Sa 2x Su back up to 3 in March
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Old 14th Aug 2009, 21:54
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nclflights

Dont forget loss of Oslo and Milan. Also reduced frequency on AMS, plus LHR reduced during May, Aug, Nov and Dec by one rotation per day. Not forgeting no Toronto from Summer 2010 and Orlando from two to once a week also in 2010. ( Will Split and Pisa still be here next year?)

I realise times are tough at the moment but I cannot see why the likes of Prague, Krakow, Milan etc could not have been kept going on a reduced frequency. I reckon there is still a significant demand out there.

Has the annual pax nos now dropped below 5 million.

It seems to be mainly downhill now and I dont want to say it but has the change in management co incided with the decline. In contrast look whats happened at LBA.

I really hope that the steady decline can be halted soon and growth resumed. Come on Fly Be, and others.
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Old 14th Aug 2009, 22:14
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Didn't the CEO move to Leeds/Bradford?
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Old 14th Aug 2009, 22:20
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Yes he did and I seem to remember a number of posters slagging him royally when he did.

Fl Dutchman - you hit the nail on the head, what you think is clearly not what the airlines do. The routes have been cut because they're not the most profitable and can't be sustained. Bucket and spades are what sells so get used to it.

Krakow is never going to be a full load daily, Milan was actually Bergamo and Prague is weekend trips and stag parties. None of them appeal to a core business community so they have a short shelf life.

It's like all aspects of business, when people have cash to splash the routes will be there, otherwise its going to suffer.
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Old 14th Aug 2009, 22:51
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Just been looking at the July pax stats...the ones that are available....LHR +10%
LGW +8% and ABZ +24% most down but a few not available yet. None of the International figures for NCL are out yet.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 10:31
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I agree that the likes of Prague and Krakow will not produce daily full loads like it used to, but I would have thought a frequency of 2 or 3 per week would be sustainable a bit like Rome and Malta. However as you say obviously the airlines dont seem to think so.

LHR 10% growth. Yet frequency cuts on the route? ?


Trying to be positive though, charters seem to be doing quite well this year.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 11:47
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I am personally not too worried that Ryanair didn't choose NCL as a base as I believe it would have a negative knock on effect on the other airlines based here; however I fail to understand how they seem totally unwilling to fly TO NCL from their current bases. There is a market there, perhaps not for daily flights but at least 3 or 4 rotations a week.

BGY was successful despite shocking timings, and I understand the route was cut as they wanted to send the plane to Manchester instead. NCL is still massively underserved when it comes to Germany and should Ryanair ever open a base in Eastern Europe then any route planner worth his or her salt could see that NCL could justify a few flights a week.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 12:11
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Ryanair ending the Girona at end of summer. So only Dublin left with poor timings etc.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 14:31
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Strange to understand the Ryanair logic for Newcastle with bergamo,Gerona, Dublin, Shannon etc.

With Hanover ending in October, Dusseldorf will be the only german route left, albeit with a good twice daily frequency, unless the management is talking to Air Berlin or better still Lufthansa to introduce more routes. At one stage Flybe said it was keen to serve german routes out of Newcastle.

I note the routes conference will be held in China in September, maybe something will come out of that. The airport usually has a stand.


Heathrow....the figure for July 09 is 44,296 as opposed to July 08 at 41,047
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 15:31
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Insofar as Germany is concerned Dusseldorf works because it serves business flyers. All the others bomb because they can't sustain long term traffic. Frankfurt is the only one which would be a success but slots aren't available.

Face facts, the other routes are either crap timings or leisure routes only. Shannon was only put on to drive Aer Arran off Galway and thats FR all over in Irish destinations. As soon as they were out of the picture it got canned.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 22:26
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andrewmcharlton

Are you saying that other than bucket and spade, leisure routes wont work?.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 22:35
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Not at all, but if nobody has any money to spend on the "non bucket and spade" leisure routes, national carriers reducing even previously profitable routes and the train, car, bus or stay at home alternatives being important to many its clear that the other routes struggle.

Typically they start either daily or 3/4 a week and shortly everyone in the limited catchment area who can use it has done so and then the revenue dries up. So the merry go round continues.
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 23:39
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Interesting comments regarding leisure routes that aren't bucket and spade and German routes.

I may be biased (having just returned from there) but I think Munich could work. Decent connectivity to the LH network, good "city break" leisure destination, and a gaping hole on the NCL route map. Anyone know if the UK has any military bases there also?

If SN can support a daily Brussels connection , with poor timing for connections, (When AMS isn't too far away with superior frequency and connections) surely someone could make a go of this.

ReadyToGo
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 23:45
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But hasn't Munich been tried and failed? HLX ran it off and on for a couple of years and the figures weren't great.

Unless it was operated by Lufthansa then connections are not easy and NCL will not even be on their radar given the other priority destinations for business use.

Frankfurt is the holy grail as its Lufthansa's main hub but as I said there is a scarcity of slots and same applies, can NCL justify it over other destinations?
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Old 15th Aug 2009, 23:53
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I'm not sure Andrewm, I have only been flying out of NCL over the last year or so.

Just when I was there, I thought it ticked a fair few of the boxes required to sustain decent loads. Especially compared to the seemingly successful BRU flights.

Problem is of course, who could operate it. The market for connections requires high-frequency with LH, whereas the leisure market requires low fares that I doubt LH could offer on a CRJ or similar...

Either way, its a huge hole in the network, there are only seasonal Innsbruck flights that go anywhere near southern Germany!

RTG!
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Old 16th Aug 2009, 08:52
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I think HLX only ran Cologne and Munich for less than a year in 2005. And despite less marketing than a British lo-cost would use it did get two or three times the numbers going to Dusseldorf for each route. Easyjet also got high numbers to Berlin until it messed around with the schedule and cancelled lots of flights. People do want to travel from NCL to Germany, and did so in much greater numbers when there were good services in 2005. Whether they are willing to pay high enough fares to make much money is another question.
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Old 16th Aug 2009, 12:04
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apaul is absolutely right, there is indeed room for development in Germany. In 2005 I flew to MUC, SXF and CGN and was impressed by the number of passengers flying. Admittedly it was the summer but they were midweek flights.

If HAJ-NCL had been a complete money loser for TUI wouldn't they have cut the route altogether? Let's face it Hannover is by no means one of Germany's big five cities. Additionally, didn't LH say earlier in the year that they were delighted with NCL and may eventually grow a bit more at the airport?

NCL does indeed rely a lot on the bucket and spade routes and there is nothing wrong with that. But NCL can also happily justify having scheduled routes to LHR, LGW, AMS, BRU, CDG, DXB and DUS and so it is much more than just a bucket and spade hub.

There is no doubt that daily flights would probably be unsustainable but I am sure 4 a week would be manageable. Let's hope that AB or LH realise that flights to NCL could be profitable or that EZ realise that fooling around with SXF was a big mistake.
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Old 16th Aug 2009, 23:22
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I'm sure I read somewhere that there was a sizeable inbound market from Germany to Newcastle.
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Old 17th Aug 2009, 13:56
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Yup totally agree with yourself and apaul. I flew on the HLX CGN route when it operated, and loads were always good, funnily enough most pax were Germans so there must be demand from both ends.

I now use LH to Dus now and the 2 x daily schedule is brilliant! Again really good loads. LH are defo pleased with this route, I know they have mentioned that it could be used as springboard for some new routes in the future, but it could be a long way off.

In the meantime I wish BE would look at expanding their base, as they too have earmarked potential German routes. Hopefully, Hanover will continue, its operated for years now, dont know whether Air Berlin are in the frame seeing as though they have absorbed TUI. If not it would be a very good starter for BE as they already have a presence there from SOU and BHX.

We shall see eh?
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