NEWCASTLE - 8

[LAX_LHR]

Also overheard him say something about one base going all Airbus next year..could have been any from EMA/BHX/MAN (he was talking about all 3 in the same conversation to the FA and I was half asleep ha!)

Its BHX. EMA is already all Airbus and MAN has the B767 fleet as well as the Condor B757's.

[pallan]

Ah I see, thanks for clearing that one up... I did wonder which one it was, didn't think it was MAN but wasn't sure on the other two!

[HH6702]

Tcx varna

Hi

Nice to see a new route being added.

So what's been dropped then I'm guessing a turkish flight dalaman back to 6 x weekly??

[GrahamK]

Dalaman still daily. At a guess I'd say the 320 isn't doing any "w" patterns to DSA next summer which frees space up

[EK77WNCL]

Are we definitely a leased A320 again? Quietly hoping for 3 A321's to try and help cover the drop in seats we are accruing on a yearly basis (although it should be better from 2015 onwards)

[pallan]

As much as I personally would like to see 3 A321's next year, I'm not sure if this will be the case.
On the outbound to Dalaman on 19/08 there were several empty seats (this despite it being peak season). Granted, TCX (and NCL in general) has a lot of seats to Dalaman and the return on 28/08, also the A320, was jam packed however I think the current set up is working well for TCX and other bases (BHX) are going Airbus next year too so these will probably need the A321's.

Also, the leased A320 has been a pretty good performer this year compared to last with very few delays so I personally can see it sticking around for a while

[LiamNCL]

Think in the long run TCX will probably have 3 A321s here but lets not get too greedy mind you they could decorate the A320 a little bit more than just the heart on the tail , Even just putting Thomas cook down the sides ?

Not suprised theres a few spare seats on DLM , Theres surely only so many people you can take to Dalaman and with TOM & LS theres an awful lot of seats to fill

[EK77WNCL]

Had a look through the stats for July today, more drops on quite a lot of leisure routes, but then some had very large increases, Kefalonia and Rhodes surprised me a lot! Overall though NCL pax numbers were up again, have to see how August looks, I think someone said before that the commonwealth games/world cup kept people at home in June/July (similar drops on routes in June) along with smaller A/C from TCX/TOM, but hopefully there were a few people going away August, I know a lot of family and friends who have. May already have been posted, but here are a few that surprised me, and the link to look for yourself.

*I also tend to compare NCL with LBA/EMA/LPL as they are all airports within a similar location of a similar size with a similar reliance on leisure traffic. I'm also only noting double/triple digit changes, please take a look for yourself if you are interested though.

Decreases:
- Paphos.................. 2014..................................... 2013
Total:........................7065.......................... ........... 8882
Charter (TOM/TCX)... 3236.................................... 4603
Scheduled (LS):........ 3829..................................... 4279... (-20%)
EMA -3%, LBA -4%
- Corfu..................... 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 7913..................................... 9542
Charter (TOM/TCX)... 6234..................................... 7324
Scheduled (LS).......... 1679..................................... 2218... (-17%)
EMA +1%, LBA +20%

- Skiathos................. 2014.................................... 2013
Total:....................... 1035.....................................1812... (-43%)
(Interesting to see Kavala on the list with 634 passengers... Not bookable)
-Alicante.................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total:...................... 27800.................................... 31331... (-11%)
- Las Palmas............ 2014...................................... 2013
Total........................ 4686...................................... 5458... (-14%)
- Bodrum................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total....................... 5237....................................... 5789... (-10%)
- Krakow................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total....................... 2271...................................... 3706... (-39%)


Increases:
- Kefalonia................ 2014..................................... 2013
Total (TOM/TCX):..... 2927..................................... 1345... (+118%)
- Kos........................ 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 3297..................................... 1627... (+103%)
- Rhodes.................. 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 7264..................................... 5074... (+43%)
- Zakynthos.............. 2014..................................... 2013
Total:....................... 6631..................................... 5020
- Funchal.................. 2014...................................... 2013
Total:....................... 2284...................................... 1730... (+32%)
- Reus...................... 2014...................................... 2013
Total........................ 8168....................................... 7148... (+14%)
- Lanzarote.............. 2014....................................... 2013
Total:...................... 8420........................................ 7046... (+20%)
- Fuerteventura........ 2014....................................... 2013
Total:....................... 4470....................................... 3816... (+17%)

Apologies for not keeping up the more in depth analysis, I thought it was a little complicated... Another thought I've had is, are we simply at a crossroads of which holiday destinations are most popular? Or does popularity always vary seasonally? One year Spain sees growth, another year Greece, another year Turkey etc... Quite fascinating.

[VentureGo]

Be interesting to see breakdown of flights for 2005 - 2008 where numbers were higher despite lack of volume through LCCs and Emirates.

Year Passengers Movements
1997 2,642,591 81,279

2004 4,724,263 77,721
2005 5,200,806 77,882
2006 5,431,976 81,655
2007 5,650,716 79,200
2008 5,039,993 72,904
2009 4,587,883 69,254
2010 4,356,130 66,677
2011 4,346,270 64,521
2012 4,366,196 61,006
2013 4,420,839 59,962
(from Wikidedia - Newcastle Airport)

[apaul]

Not sure what you mean by lack of LCC volume in 2005-2008. EasyJet based more aircraft at Newcastle in 2005-2008 than it does now and used to fly to Stansted and Bristol four or more times a day. That would rack up more passenger numbers than a daily longhaul flight to Dubai.

[skyman771]

Venturetogo
A graph of these total annual NCL movements & a bit like House prices in the N.E.

[EK77WNCL]

On top of that they used to carry something like 7,000 pax a month to Berlin and over double how many LS currently carry to Krakow, and more. Real shame they didn't have more faith in NCL, what was it 7 based aircraft at the peak? That's more than Jet2 today, and probably operating 3/4 flights per aircraft per day vs about 2 with Jet2.

Potential for a comeback?

There were also other airlines with sizeable operations at Newcastle, such as XL Airways, I'm sure TCX used to be a larger player too. Then there was HLX flying to about 4 (I think) German destinations at their peak. Shame really.

[INeedTheFull90]

EZY will never grow from NCL in terms of based units. All spare frames go to Gatwick, Luton or Bristol. The five new frames coming next year are account for with the new bases in OPO and AMS. With LGW getting the go ahead to increase in based units, then there will always be much more of a likelihood of putting them into LGW. If they can't put them there then it'll go to LTN or BRS. Competition for new aircraft is fierce between bases. If I wanted to get the best return on investment then I too would out them into LGW.

More units would also add to the seasonality issues of NCL. You want the jets so, where where they'll make money year round and that is not NCL. With the current based three jets, increasing yields and load factors whilst reducing winter losses is the more conservative way of growing the base without it ending in tears. Additional growth could happen with switching an A319 for an A320. Eventually that will need to happen as ezy will be a A320 only airline as the A319s are replaced with A320.

Does anyone have figures per airline over the year? I'd be interested to see what the numbers per airlines over the last decade.

[Jamesair]

EZY are also using a/c based at other airports to provide additional flights from NCL, e.g..... a GTW based a/c for the NCL route and other services using a BRS based a/c. I think this will be the EZY way forward for any expansion out of NCL.

The ever decreasing number of movements is interesting although I have detected a slight rise in 2014, maybe someone could confirm (or deny) this.

[Jamesair]

It looks like GermanWings start operating the DUSSELDORF route w.e.f. 18th Sept 14.

[pallan]

Wow, I never realised numbers were that far down on 2007 still.

In terms of pax per airline, you can find out some from Wiki for 2013, but only the ones with sole operators.

So...

BA - 481,307 (-1% on 2012)
EK - 199,025 (+23%)

But not sure on the rest, or compared to previous years. And it is Wiki so not entirely sure how reliable they are!

[Hipennine]

Correlation does not necessarily equate to causation, but the EZY change from a high growth base with 7 a/craft to decline and low level stability began with the arrival of Jet2 on the scene at NCL.

Would total service at NCL have been better had EZY been left to develop without competition ? Prices might have been higher, but there might have been more destinations and more stability.

[INeedTheFull90]

I personally think so. The spotters may be happier with LS being at NCL but in reality they operate many routes and only operate them in summer and usually very infrequently and as others have said they shut down in winter pretty much. Just look at MJV. EZY were twice weekly, LS thrice, now down to one a week and no EZY. Let's hope other routes don't go that way.

[pallan]

This is one reason why I'm always cautious when people say another carrier should be on a route to lower prices or provide competition

It may lower prices, but in the case of LS and EZY, it drove EZY off many of the routes...

Competition isn't always good

[fa2fi]

Yes agree totally. It's profit that's important, not pretty tails lined up at the pier or fancy places on the departure boards.