FlyBe - 6
Join Date: Oct 2008
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Well i so post on iii aswell, but i still feel those two post show what a state flybe is in. If you look at the first post it did say that walker trust may step and buy the rest.
fr-
fr-
I just happened to turn on BBC Radio 4 (the UK mainstream news station) about 0830 this morning, halfway through an extended financial team discussion about FlyBe, and really thought for a while that they were discussing some sudden negative event that had happened this morning.
To me the best thing that could happen would be for IAG to up their shareholding and rebadge them as a BA commuter carrier. BA regularly blow hot and cold over whether associated carriers are in or out of fashion with them, now is about the time for the pendulum to swing back again. There's been a huge loss of visibility for BA outside London, that this could go some way to address. Just as long as Waterside don't then see it as a huge opportunity to dump central overheads away from their own operation and onto the smaller operations, in the way they have done in the past, turning marginally proftable operations into huge loss-makers on paper.
To me the best thing that could happen would be for IAG to up their shareholding and rebadge them as a BA commuter carrier. BA regularly blow hot and cold over whether associated carriers are in or out of fashion with them, now is about the time for the pendulum to swing back again. There's been a huge loss of visibility for BA outside London, that this could go some way to address. Just as long as Waterside don't then see it as a huge opportunity to dump central overheads away from their own operation and onto the smaller operations, in the way they have done in the past, turning marginally proftable operations into huge loss-makers on paper.
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here come the cuts
well Mr French is not wasting time reducing UK capacity in line with demand as he promised the city yesterday. Today its BHD cuts on 3 routes including axing the 3x a day BHD LPL.
Unless BA intended to change alot of routes, I can't see BE. being that good a fit for IAG anymore. The UK domestics, by and large, don't feed into BA and the number of key European Cities isn't that huge but instead a lot of French regional routes.
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I don't think there's a chance of IAG buying FlyBe. I think they have bigger long haul players in their sights.
Even if it did and it operated under the BA name, transfer pricing legislation would require BA to licence the brand at an arm's length price, thus denting profitability on paper.
Even if it did and it operated under the BA name, transfer pricing legislation would require BA to licence the brand at an arm's length price, thus denting profitability on paper.
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Even if it did and it operated under the BA name, transfer pricing legislation would require BA to licence the brand at an arm's length price, thus denting profitability on paper.
Join Date: May 2007
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no one's gonna buy FlyBe cos its not for sale at these prices and the Walkers who control it wont sell below 300p and its now 65p. Stop dreaming. Maybe once Mr French and Rutter have chopped some of the unprofitable routes back the price will go up again.
No one in there right mind thinks the BHD cuts are the end of it and LPL always was a low yield dog.
No one in there right mind thinks the BHD cuts are the end of it and LPL always was a low yield dog.
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Jetscream
Have to agree, i think that with bmibaby starting an early rotation from BHD to EMA from November (7am?) that any advantage that Flybe had on the Route will be gone, so it will come down to a bun fight on fares and Jet v Prop there should only be one winner, if Flybe's number drop as a result it will be chopped after Xmas.
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Flybe has been on a strong upward pattern for the last number of years since to my mind the aquisition of BA Connect business. This is really the 1st negative commentary that has been bandied about on the subject of Flybe. This year they made an aquisition in Finland and this is likely going to put some strain on the system for a while, I would imagine, sounds like management are acting quick in light of a slow up in bookings.
Flybe is quite niche in terms of its business and has some very strong bases. I think we will see Flybe return to a strong performance and the share price grow again. Cant see it being sold at this stage.
I dont work for Flybe so only know what info the media gives and what is discussed on this thread.
As regards BHD EMA, the WW brand is very strong in EMA and BE brand is strong in Belfast. So to my mind depending on where the majority of the demand is coming from will determine to some extent the success of either carrier, but given that WW has been in the market for a long time, they are well established. I think EMA would be the last route that WW would give up ex BHD, though given the woes at bmi group, I wouldnt be throwing in the towel if I were BE at this stage.
EI-BUD
Flybe is quite niche in terms of its business and has some very strong bases. I think we will see Flybe return to a strong performance and the share price grow again. Cant see it being sold at this stage.
I dont work for Flybe so only know what info the media gives and what is discussed on this thread.
As regards BHD EMA, the WW brand is very strong in EMA and BE brand is strong in Belfast. So to my mind depending on where the majority of the demand is coming from will determine to some extent the success of either carrier, but given that WW has been in the market for a long time, they are well established. I think EMA would be the last route that WW would give up ex BHD, though given the woes at bmi group, I wouldnt be throwing in the towel if I were BE at this stage.
EI-BUD
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Noticed on the website a banner stating the last BHDLPL is 06th November. This is the first time BE have ever publicly referred to a suspended route online and usually, such banners are only put in place if their Call Centre receive a large number of the same questions.
My point therefore is, is this route chop affecting many more people than first thought to the point they have to put some form of advice on the web? If so, is this the best route to be chopping??
BHDDSA is no surprise as, apart from the odd JER, BE have never committed to DSA and never added to their network.
BHDMSE was only summer anyway so surprise again.
My point therefore is, is this route chop affecting many more people than first thought to the point they have to put some form of advice on the web? If so, is this the best route to be chopping??
BHDDSA is no surprise as, apart from the odd JER, BE have never committed to DSA and never added to their network.
BHDMSE was only summer anyway so surprise again.
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Maybe once Mr French and Rutter have chopped some of the unprofitable routes back the price will go up again.
No they wont, boywonder is in charge now and therein lies the problem
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Only 25% of the company had been floated, so a takeover is very unlikely.
The city/traders may understand the business models of companies such as BA (full service, most money made in biz/1st class) and Easy/Ryan (true lo-co) but the flybe model is neither, so is fairly new to the city and it will take time for them to fully understand it.
Flybe always drop routes over winter and always will, it saves money and frees aircraft (short on spare aircraft to cover tech issues etc at the moment - no 175's yet!) and frees crews to operate any other work (charters etc) they may get.
The share price will recover - eventually!!
Just my opinion!
The city/traders may understand the business models of companies such as BA (full service, most money made in biz/1st class) and Easy/Ryan (true lo-co) but the flybe model is neither, so is fairly new to the city and it will take time for them to fully understand it.
Flybe always drop routes over winter and always will, it saves money and frees aircraft (short on spare aircraft to cover tech issues etc at the moment - no 175's yet!) and frees crews to operate any other work (charters etc) they may get.
The share price will recover - eventually!!
Just my opinion!
Flybe is a considerably smaller company than either Easyjet or Ryanair. The City is not very good at understanding small companies and how they work - it's all about earnings, costs, revenues, and comparing a company to its peers.
Flybe management can talk as much as they like, but the average equity analyst covering the transport sector is unlikely to devote a lot of time covering a company with a market cap similiar to that of Flybe, unless there's a few consistent quarters of good profits. Warnings about a slump in bookings go down badly !
Not particularly fair, but that's the way the large banks work.
Flybe management can talk as much as they like, but the average equity analyst covering the transport sector is unlikely to devote a lot of time covering a company with a market cap similiar to that of Flybe, unless there's a few consistent quarters of good profits. Warnings about a slump in bookings go down badly !
Not particularly fair, but that's the way the large banks work.
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175's
Had to smile with the delay to the 175 arriving when checking one Global Distribution System as it would get to about ten days before they were due and the aircraft type would change back to the original.
However they have obviously given up now, as the INV - LGW and MAN - BRU were still showing last night as the 175 for today and again it is the same tonight for tomorrow.
This of course is what Joe Public can see and I assume it is different for the agents?
Lineup N Wait
I checked a week in November and they wouldn't have to worry about the 175's if the Q400's were all "available", as they only require 60-61 aircraft and that was before BHD-LPL was pulled.
However it is very noticeable that the spare 195 at BHX is now being used most days. It operated for the Q400 on BHX-DUS-BHX this morning, BHX-GLA-BHX this afternoon and the same route again this evening.
I assume the Q400's were naughty again yesterday at BHX going by the delays although they all got back before midnight.
Pete
However they have obviously given up now, as the INV - LGW and MAN - BRU were still showing last night as the 175 for today and again it is the same tonight for tomorrow.
This of course is what Joe Public can see and I assume it is different for the agents?
Lineup N Wait
I checked a week in November and they wouldn't have to worry about the 175's if the Q400's were all "available", as they only require 60-61 aircraft and that was before BHD-LPL was pulled.
However it is very noticeable that the spare 195 at BHX is now being used most days. It operated for the Q400 on BHX-DUS-BHX this morning, BHX-GLA-BHX this afternoon and the same route again this evening.
I assume the Q400's were naughty again yesterday at BHX going by the delays although they all got back before midnight.
Pete