FlyBe - 6

[Wycombe]

NQY-LGW

So it seems we may still see Flybe at LGW after the end of March 2014:

BBC News - Newquay-to-Gatwick Flybe route threat lifted

[getonittt]

If the route needs a subsidy of several million pounds each year what's the point in having it? What a waste of money.

[Set 1013]

It is a vital link between the deepest part of the West Country and London. The route would be self sufficient if it wasn't for the extortionate charges LGW apply to operate a Q400 in there. APD doesn't help too!
The demand is there for the route, it is the greed of these 3rd parties that make it not profitable. It is obviously an important enough route to receive such funding.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by Set 1013

It is a vital link between the deepest part of the West Country and London. The route would be self sufficient if it wasn't for the extortionate charges LGW apply to operate a Q400 in there. APD doesn't help too!
The demand is there for the route, it is the greed of these 3rd parties that make it not profitable. It is obviously an important enough route to receive such funding.

Stating "the demand is there for a route" is fairly meaningless unless it is demand at a price which corresponds to the cost of providing the service.

If the shortfall is indeed, as you say (and who am I to question this?) due to the charges at LGW, then surely the obvious solution is to serve an alternative cheaper London airport?

(I'm not even going to touch the "greed" comment.)

[davidjohnson6]

Seems to be similiar to Dr Beeching's cuts from the 1960s. At what point does it become socially desirable for Govt to intervene to spend money to sustain existing transport links to a region which are deemed necessary to sustain existing economic activity, compared to looking purely at the profitability of a transport provider ? And no, please don't change the topic of this thread to Dr Beeching - the topic is Flybe

The net effect of a potential PSO route between Gatwick and Newquay, would be
1 - Govt paying to GIP the difference in airport charges for 2x daily 78-seat Gatwick-Newquay flights versus 180-seat Gatwick-Malaga flights
PLUS
2 - Govt paying to the PSO carrier any difference in revenue on airfare between a purely supply/demand driven pricing scheme and a possibly Govt policy influenced pricing scheme

[anothertyke]

I should think Govt will be keen to avoid getting into Mr Johnson's 2 first time around. Put them back in the position they were in before LGW changed their tariff and let them get on with it. If the route numbers still don't add up, time for some serious thinking.

[Set 1013]

Cyrano,

With the greatest of respect I don't see your point. If Flybe changed from operating out of LGW to (as you say) a cheaper airport, I suspect that alternative airport would be less attractive to the traveling passengers. Would it not? The route demand is NQY - LGW! Simple! Half the people on this route connect around the world thought this airport. The route doesn't just support highly paid city workers traveling to their weekend home on the coast of Cornwall.

It is very simple really. If LGW didn't charge outrageous fees to put a dash in their, the route would be a good profitable one! Greed or politics on LGW's part is to blame for the down fall of this route.

[GAZMO]

Just reading an article that FLYBE are continuing the Newquay to LGW service
Did they purchase new slots for LGW, as I thought they had sold all to EZY

"Flybe, Europe’s largest independent regional airline, has agreed a commercial deal with Newquay Cornwall Airport that will enable the airline to continue operating flights between Newquay and London Gatwick from March 30th until October 25th, 2014 on a twice daily basis.

Read more: Cornwall-to-London Flybe route threat lifted | Exeter Express and Echo

[davidjohnson6]

Half the people on this route connect around the world thought this airport

So you're saying that half the passengers flying to/from and based in Newquay actually want a connection to some sort of a hub rather than to London ? On that basis, as Gatwick is non-connecting LCC-centric, would Flybe doing codeshares with other network carriers on a NQY-MAN route perhaps be more suitable for these pax instead ?

[cornishsimon]

FYI BA do offer codeshare on the flybe NQY route.

A BA codeshare on the NQY-MAN would allow onward connections on the AA routes but that would require different NQY flight times I think.



cs

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by Set 1013

Cyrano,

With the greatest of respect I don't see your point. If Flybe changed from operating out of LGW to (as you say) a cheaper airport, I suspect that alternative airport would be less attractive to the traveling passengers. Would it not? The route demand is NQY - LGW! Simple! Half the people on this route connect around the world thought this airport. The route doesn't just support highly paid city workers traveling to their weekend home on the coast of Cornwall.

It is very simple really. If LGW didn't charge outrageous fees to put a dash in their, the route would be a good profitable one! Greed or politics on LGW's part is to blame for the down fall of this route.

I don't like the effect that LGW's pricing has on regional links but GIP is a private company and I respect their right to manage their asset as they see fit in the absence of any regulation to the contrary. Should there be regulation of slots for regional links? I'd like to see that. But that's a national policy question, not one for GIP.

As davidjohnson6 points out, LGW could make more money by using those slots for an A320 going to (let's say) Malaga with 150+ passengers. The flybe LGW slots have been sold to easyjet. As a private company, why should GIP not maximise their revenues?

If half the demand is for connecting service, that may pose some problems for a future PSO. The purpose of a PSO is "territorial continuity", i.e. in this case improving mobility between Cornwall and London, for people who are starting their journey in one and ending it in the other. I'm open to being corrected, but I'm not aware of any European PSOs being defined in such a way as to subsidise international connectivity. In other words, I'd expect a Cornwall PSO to be for Cornwall-London service, not for Cornwall-Gatwick service, and to be open to carriers proposing services to Luton/Stansted/Southend, and who knows, even LCY

[Phileas Fogg]

The NQY/LON route is viable and profitable with the right size of aircraft ... Alas FlyBE don't operate such a size of aircraft ...

One does begin to speculate why a UK operator has DHC8-100's on order!!!

[getonittt]

Yes Phileas, that was the type of aircraft that had been operating route in the Brymon/Air Southwest days albeit from Plymouth.
If an abolition of wretched APD on this route (or any other route as far as i'm concerned) would help then that would be another answer , or if the route is being used for cennections then i'm sure Exeter has flights to the european hubs .
Apart from that my original comment still stands.

[virginblue]

ne does begin to speculate why a UK operator has DHC8-100's on order!!!

If you are referring to my thread about the two DAT DHC8-100s, you should revisit it. The aircoraft are not on order by an UK airline. A UK operator is one of the interested parties, among others. Nothing more.

[EI-BUD]

The NQY/LON route is viable and profitable with the right size of aircraft ...
Alas FlyBE don't operate such a size of aircraft ...

Phileas Fogg;
This is a broad statement! What is the right size of aircraft, I think we would all agree that as the size of the aircraft comes down (seating capacity), typically the unit costs go up. I.e. the cost of pilots, landing slots etc etc, remain roughly the same. So the seeing this logic through it would suggest that say a 319 is the right size of aircraft? What size aircraft would you say is right and why?

In October a total of 8231 people used the route. That is 4115 each way,
so on average a daily number each way of 132. Assuming (as we must as nobody can tell the exact number of connecting passengers 1. as few have access to the actual numbers, and 2. many passengers are connecting but have separate tickets, so a very limited factual info available.

I agree that APD is a challenge and LGW charges not helping matters, the challenge is for 132 passengers, there will be millions of £'s pumped into a non viable route, so it is largely the needs of the few over the needs of the many. Commercial reality needs to kick in. I fully support the suggestion of connection passengers via MAN. This would further dilute the number of LGW NQY pax daily.

Looking over to Ireland, Loganair and Aer Arann got subsidies over the years on domestic routes, examples were DUB to LDY, SXL, GWY, NOC.
There is little evidence to show where the airlines have stimulated traffic on these routes despite being subsidised. It 'feels' like it is in any case hard to stimualte traffic on these routes, and I suggest NQY LGW will be no different. BE will go to say 2 a day (reduced frequency) and prices will go up due to supply demand etc. and the overall numbers will dip further.

EI-BUD

[LGS6753]

In October a total of 8231 people used the route. That is 3756 each way,

er, 8231divided by 2 = 4115.5.

Unless there is a Cornish dimension

[EI-BUD]

Unless there is a Cornish dimension

LOL - well spotted, I looked up the CAA stats and read the Newcastle line of the report!

Yes you are correct . edited!

[davidjohnson6]

Phileas - you mention London-Newquay is profitable with the right size aircraft. If October had 4,115 pax in each direction over 31 days and we assume the route in future would be 2x daily (maybe only 1x daily at weekends) the route might see between 50 and 60 pax per flight.

If Flybe don't fly the right aircraft, what type of flying machine would work well without making the per unit passenger cost too high or forcing an airline to have a very small number of aircraft of a certain type ?

Genuine question as I'm puzzled as to how to make the route work year round at a business-friendly frequency without a Flybe Q400

[GusHoneybun]

With a loganair SAAB 2000. Would be full to the rafters so can charge a premium for the last seats. Welcome to FlyBe 2.0

[cornishsimon]

When did Logan get the S2000 ?


I have always wondered if a LoganAir base operating as BE using S340 or D328s at NQY would work!


cs