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Old 13th May 2017, 19:31
  #2021 (permalink)  
 
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The 20 year forcast for freight is greater than the current amount through East Midlands, the main UK hub for DHL, UPS and the Post Office.
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Old 13th May 2017, 19:55
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Originally Posted by Council Van
The 20 year forcast for freight is greater than the current amount through East Midlands, the main UK hub for DHL, UPS and the Post Office.
But how many "Cargo Airlines", with dedicated freighters, are currently operating thru UK and with what frequency of service?
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Old 13th May 2017, 23:32
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can you explain which UK airport(s) these cargo airlines are utilising at the moment
When one reads the 3 reports it is clear that the whole point is that this cargo is currently NOT going through UK airports, due to lack of capacity in the South East, but is going via Continental airports, and is being trucked across the channel.

Last edited by DrBeauWebber; 14th May 2017 at 00:03.
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Old 14th May 2017, 01:49
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Originally Posted by DrBeauWebber
When one reads the 3 reports it is clear that the whole point is that this cargo is currently NOT going through UK airports, due to lack of capacity in the South East, but is going via Continental airports, and is being trucked across the channel.
Airports such as Stansted, Bournemouth, Exeter, Birmingham, Coventry, East Midlands, Norwich, Tees-Side, Leeds, Doncaster etc. etc. etc. have plenty of capacity.

The truth is that quite literally every British cargo airline that has tried to make money has gone bankrupt, go on Doc, take a wild guess how many freighters 'British Airways World Cargo' own and operate?
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Old 14th May 2017, 06:36
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They all overlook, or probably not aware, that much of the freight from Manchester airport cargo terminal is trucked to, amongst other places, the south east airport of Stansted. Its also probably cheaper to truck it from the near continent than fly it direct. Logistics is a complex business and freight doesnt care where it goes from and to..
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Old 14th May 2017, 12:43
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These forecasts should be considered on the context of other forecasts that Mr Freudmann has paid people to provide since 1999 when he was CEO of Wiggins/Planestation. They were similarly optimistic and unrealistic and remained unrealised. These were provided at various meetings and through press releases. I think I may still have records of some of these forecasts in the attic. Worth a look.
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Old 14th May 2017, 12:48
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Question- I recently attended a briefing at which it was explained that one of the reasons for Manston's lack of potential as a freight operation is that bellyhold cargo via the established UK airports is considerably cheaper than dedicated freight carriage- which is all Manston can offer. Does anyone have specific information regarding this?
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Old 14th May 2017, 15:59
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How much money will Dr Dixon put on the table to back her forecast?
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Old 14th May 2017, 17:05
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By Year 5 some 1,880 passengers per day, that would be the equivalent of some 19 Fokker 100's full every day.

Has Doc Dixon ever heard of an outfit called EUJet who went bankrupt trying to fill significantly less than 19 Fokker's a day?

But Doc Dixon bases her stats upon an average of 135.59873 passengers per movement, that by year 10 have increased to 144.4464 and by year 20 151.40385 passengers per movement, so her sights are set upon larger aircraft than the Fokker ... Best let KLM know so they may get their act together
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Old 14th May 2017, 17:39
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From Volume 1:

"The airport would provide almost immediate relief to the pressing situation that is causing £2bn in potential trade to be lost to the South East each year we remain without additional runway capacity"

This implies that airlines that can't get into Heathrow, Gatwick or other London airports due to lack of runway capacity would switch to Manston in a heartbeat if it were re-opened.

The reality is that Manston was available previously, and airlines simply ignored it. It's been proven to be an entirely false assumption that airlines will happily use any airport as long as it's in the South East. If they can't get into LHR, LGW or to a lesser extent STN or LTN then they probably won't bother.
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Old 15th May 2017, 05:04
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"Banging Head" & "Brick Wall" spring to mind.

How much did these clowns pay Azimuth Associates for such a load of spiel because I'll provide them with even better spiel than that if they pay me for it!

lack of capacity at south east airports
STN has capacity available, they're developing additional capacity at LTN to be available next year, SEN is crying out for business, LHR's additional runway whilst they're talking of additional runways at STN & LGW such airports as BHX & BOH are well placed to assist the south east, whilst the Doc believes that cargo travels in bellies because of no capacity.

If the south east was/is so strangled, as these muppets try to have us believe, then why have such airfields as Hatfield, Greenham Common, Upper Heyford, Wethersfield and, indeed, Manston closed whilst other airports such as Cambridge, Oxford and Shoreham tried for passenger services and failed miserably?
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Old 15th May 2017, 07:15
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Manston could be a successful regional airport with a modest freight operation as they've handled in the recent past, something along the lines of 2/3 x daily to AMS with KLM on a small jet, 1x daily to DUB with EIR and Thomson doing a couple of flights a week to Palma/Ibiza/Tenerife plus training, maintenance and GA. The problem is the returns from that sort of activity wouldn't justify the costs associated with purchasing the site and getting it up and running again.
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Old 17th May 2017, 15:53
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RiverOak Strategic Partners’ plans for Manston set to create almost 30,000 jobs in Thanet and the surrounding area.
Even in first year of operation almost 6,000 people will find employment as a result of Manston’s revival.


Under RiverOak Strategic Partners’ plans to reopen Manston Airport, as an air freight hub with passenger services and business aviation, more than 4,200 people would be employed directly at the airport site by its twentieth year of operation, with a further 26,000 jobs created in the wider economy.
The figures have been revealed as the final report in a four volume set, entitled Manston Airport: a regional and national asset, is published, considering the socio-economic impact of reopening the airport.
The four reports were commissioned by RiverOak Strategic Partners, from respected aviation academic Dr Sally Dixon of Azimuth Associates and include detailed business modelling, interviews with airlines, freight forwarders and integrators, together with analysis of the pent-up demand for air freight, which is currently costing the UK economy more than £2 Billion in lost income.
Dr Dixon’s reports show that air freight is increasingly being bumped from busy passenger aircraft, causing delays as goods bound to or from UK businesses and consumers have to be flown into and out of northern European airports and trucked across the Channel. In comparison to its congested neighbours in the South-East, Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, Manston Airport represents an ideal opportunity to deliver runway capacity to meet this pent-up demand – and, in doing so, thousands of jobs will be created for Thanet and the wider Kent region.
George Yerrall, director of RiverOak Strategic Partners, said: “From the date that the airport reopens, almost 6,000 jobs would be created - around 850 jobs on the airport site itself and a further 5,000 indirect and catalytic jobs in the wider economy, in associated industries or businesses.
“The positive economic impact grows each year along with the airport. We have forecast up until the twentieth year of operation, by which time 30,000 people in Thanet and East Kent would be able to trace their job to the revival of the airport.
“We have a real opportunity to tap into a proven demand for air freight that other South-East airports simply can’t meet. The £2 billion lost to the UK economy each year is set to almost double by 2050, even with an additional runway at Heathrow. Manston Airport is ideally placed to help recapture this traffic, which is being displaced to northern Europe. In meeting this demand, we create huge employment potential for Thanet and provide a powerful economic boost for the nation.
“We are in the process of discussing with local colleges and businesses how best to maximize career and supply chain opportunities in Manston.”
Employment at the airport would be a mix of role types, including:
• Freight services
• Passenger services
• Rescue and Fire Fighting Services
• Airport operations
• Maintenance
• Site and freight security
• Administration
• Air Traffic Services
Dr Dixon is an academic attached to Cranfield University. She is a specialist in stakeholder involvement with major airport infrastructure, lecturing on stakeholder influences on airport master planning to Cranfield MSc students. Dr Dixon holds a PhD from Cranfield and an MBA from Kent University and is a member of the Royal Aeronautical Society.
She adds: “Thanet District Council’s economic development plan is ambitious. The council is starting from a challenging situation, given that local employment, productivity and wages are generally lower than in other parts of Kent. My research evidences that a vibrant air freight hub at Manston will be vitally important in stimulating thousands of high quality jobs at the airport and in the local area, helping the council to deliver an economic output that puts Thanet on a par with rest of Kent.”
RiverOak Strategic Partners is preparing for the next stage of consultation on proposals to reopen Manston Airport. The consultation is now expected to start in June, after the General Election. Full details of how local people across East Kent can participate in the consultation will be published shortly.
The Report IV :
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...operations.pdf
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Old 17th May 2017, 16:22
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Pent up demand? Seriously?
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Old 17th May 2017, 16:35
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Originally Posted by 01475
Pent up demand?
These were exactly the words used by Wiggins when they ran the place.

It turned out to be untrue then, and it's untrue now.
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Old 17th May 2017, 17:28
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This is a joke. Even the Manston faithful on their social media sites aren't gullible enough to believe it. Sorry Dr Webber but you've got no chance of convincing the professionals who frequent PPRune.
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Old 17th May 2017, 17:40
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Surely it is time to accept that, sadly, Manston is an ex parrot.
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Old 17th May 2017, 18:21
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You have got to be kidding ! These sort of forecasts, provided by " eminent consultants" , are designed to tell the company that commissioned them exactly what they wish to hear , & display to the relevant authorities & the public ie to fool them. I well remember the BAA (who were commissioned by the States of Jersey to prepare a report which supported the incorporation of the airport) forecasting 6 million pax per year for Jersey Airport. This was in 1994, when the annual total was c2 million. Since then, the total annual pax have dropped to one & a half million.
Don't be fooled. This is total nonsense !
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Old 17th May 2017, 23:02
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As much as my heart would like to see Manston re-open, can some of us take a small dose of reality here please? I'm sure Dr Dixon is very good at what she does, but looking at her profile she's written a lot about aviation, but her profile doesn't show any actual operational knowledge or experience. In fact, Azimuth shows that her experience is 'airport related projects'. Whatever that means?

“We are in the process of discussing with local colleges and businesses how best to maximize career and supply chain opportunities in Manston.”

Really? Tell me, how many PSAs does it take to passengers on your supposed freight focused airport? Are there that many ATCOs, Fire Fighters and Operations personnel who are qualified in the Thanet area ready to fill those roles? Clearly a massive jobs creator there.

Even if you were successful, you actually need people with management experience and knowledge to run the damn place! The CAA would expect those appointed into safety critical roles e.g. Accountable Manager, Safety Manager, Compliance Manager, Manager ATS, Manager RFFS to be competent. And you don't go to a local college for that!

Can you honestly seen experienced professionals jumping at the chance to work at an airport which has a worse financial record than most third world nations? An airport that is going to be losing money hand over fist from the moment it opens, with the hope of an airline or two taking the risk of operating from there. Given that one of the worlds most respected airlines has already said it won't be back?

I know were my C.V. is going to be. In my desk.
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Old 18th May 2017, 01:01
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LOL ... 850 airport jobs if/when Manston re-opens.

How many personnel were employed at Manston when it closed?
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