MANSTON -3
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I have no axe to grind regarding Manston, indeed I have a soft spot for the place, from my living in Kent to my days in the RAF to my days putting DC8F's in there for maintenance thru to my day trips to Ramsgate when I lived/worked in Ostend.
But I don't have "STUPID" written across my forehead, these people, with the doc as their spokesperson here on PPRuNe, knowing that everything else that has been tried has failed now claim Manston's future, lifeline, is as a dedicated freight airport and the most recent discussions, posts, here had been that Manston's runway simply isn't long enough for what they are proposing.
Now should you wish to take up this argument, that of course the runway is long enough "We've had A380's and B747F's in there previously", then before you start arguing go and grab yourself some B747 and B777 performance tables and go figure how much runway either of them need to depart at MTOW (maximum take off weight).
Then please get back to me with your findings.
Last edited by Harry Wayfarers; 12th May 2017 at 01:08.
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You're being very negative.
There's no reason to suppose Manston couldn't be very successful on the back of freight operators bringing in empty 747s. No other airport in the UK specialises in this untapped market.
And on top of that there would likely be a double daily Amsterdam service.
And the fire training. Never forget the fire training.
There's no reason to suppose Manston couldn't be very successful on the back of freight operators bringing in empty 747s. No other airport in the UK specialises in this untapped market.
And on top of that there would likely be a double daily Amsterdam service.
And the fire training. Never forget the fire training.
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Infratil had Manston up for sale as an operational airport for a very long time at a modest market price. Nobody wanted it. Riveroak didn't come forward. Edi Truell didn't come forward. The new "mystery investor" didn't come forward. In the end Ann Gloag took it off their hands for £1. Now we have these three investors sniffing around to try and get a compulsory purchase of the "airport". What has changed? Why simple- it's not an airport any more and therefore worth a great deal of money after business/residential development. Are any of these investors showing interest in acquiring any actual operational airports elsewhere? I think we all know what's going on!
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Well, that's flushed out the bully boys, seeing an opertunity to attempt ridicule, commenting without much recent local knowledge or having been at Manston recently, if ever, on the present situation. At least I am there every three months or so. davedee does at least say he is in Thanet, although he still has a personal fight and will not disclose his reason, despite many requests.
You don't have to have technical knowledge to have been involved in the aviation industry. There are other areas.
You are also entitled to have a second career, especially when your first was curtailed on medical grounds.
You don't have to have technical knowledge to have been involved in the aviation industry. There are other areas.
You are also entitled to have a second career, especially when your first was curtailed on medical grounds.
Last edited by IB4138; 12th May 2017 at 09:03.
Harry Wayfarers
Now should you wish to take up this argument, that of course the runway is long enough "We've had A380's and B747F's in there previously", then before you start arguing go and grab yourself some B747 and B777 performance tables and go figure how much runway either of them need to depart at MTOW (maximum take off weight).
(end of quote)
The inability to depart at MTOW is not of itself a bar to successful commercial operations. All over the world aircraft (passenger or cargo) operate from runways where MTOW cannot be achieved. In the case of a limiting runway the essential calculations are:
What is the performance limited RTOW ? With maximum payload what is the weight available for fuel, hence what is the maximum range achievable ?
OR
With fuel for the longest anticipated sector, what payload can be carried ?
In both cases is the need for a nonstop flight essential?. Is a tech stop feasible, even an attractive option ?
It then becomes a commercial decision for each company as to whether it can operate profitably within those constraints. Those posters who have pointed to the previous operation of 747 cargo flights through Manston are perfectly correct to do so. As I understand it these were regular flights not one-off charters and they only ceased using Manston when its closure became inevitable.
For the record I am not expressing a view as to likely success of a reopened MSE.
Now should you wish to take up this argument, that of course the runway is long enough "We've had A380's and B747F's in there previously", then before you start arguing go and grab yourself some B747 and B777 performance tables and go figure how much runway either of them need to depart at MTOW (maximum take off weight).
(end of quote)
The inability to depart at MTOW is not of itself a bar to successful commercial operations. All over the world aircraft (passenger or cargo) operate from runways where MTOW cannot be achieved. In the case of a limiting runway the essential calculations are:
What is the performance limited RTOW ? With maximum payload what is the weight available for fuel, hence what is the maximum range achievable ?
OR
With fuel for the longest anticipated sector, what payload can be carried ?
In both cases is the need for a nonstop flight essential?. Is a tech stop feasible, even an attractive option ?
It then becomes a commercial decision for each company as to whether it can operate profitably within those constraints. Those posters who have pointed to the previous operation of 747 cargo flights through Manston are perfectly correct to do so. As I understand it these were regular flights not one-off charters and they only ceased using Manston when its closure became inevitable.
For the record I am not expressing a view as to likely success of a reopened MSE.
Last edited by Tagron; 12th May 2017 at 14:29. Reason: Problem with quote box
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You're being very negative.
There's no reason to suppose Manston couldn't be very successful on the back of freight operators bringing in empty 747s. No other airport in the UK specialises in this untapped market.
And on top of that there would likely be a double daily Amsterdam service.
And the fire training. Never forget the fire training.
There's no reason to suppose Manston couldn't be very successful on the back of freight operators bringing in empty 747s. No other airport in the UK specialises in this untapped market.
And on top of that there would likely be a double daily Amsterdam service.
And the fire training. Never forget the fire training.
1. Just how are these operators supposed to make any money if they are flying empty B747's around without any revenue load, and:
2. Why is such a market for flying empty B747's around untapped?
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Harry Wayfarers
Now should you wish to take up this argument, that of course the runway is long enough "We've had A380's and B747F's in there previously", then before you start arguing go and grab yourself some B747 and B777 performance tables and go figure how much runway either of them need to depart at MTOW (maximum take off weight).
The inability to depart at MTOW is not of itself a bar to successful commercial operations. All over the world aircraft (passenger or cargo) operate from runways where MTOW cannot be achieved. In the case of a limiting runway the essential calculations are:
What is the performance limited RTOW ? With maximum payload what is the weight available for fuel, hence what is the maximum range achievable ?
OR
With fuel for the longest anticipated sector, what payload can be carried ?
In both cases is the need for a nonstop flight essential?. Is a tech stop feasible, even an attractive option ?
It then becomes a commercial decision for each company as to whether it can operate profitably within those constraints. Those posters who have pointed to the previous operation of 747 cargo flights through Manston are perfectly correct to do so. As I understand it these were regular flights not one-off charters and they only ceased using Manston when its closure became inevitable.
For the record I am not expressing a view as to likely success of a reopened MSE.
Now should you wish to take up this argument, that of course the runway is long enough "We've had A380's and B747F's in there previously", then before you start arguing go and grab yourself some B747 and B777 performance tables and go figure how much runway either of them need to depart at MTOW (maximum take off weight).
The inability to depart at MTOW is not of itself a bar to successful commercial operations. All over the world aircraft (passenger or cargo) operate from runways where MTOW cannot be achieved. In the case of a limiting runway the essential calculations are:
What is the performance limited RTOW ? With maximum payload what is the weight available for fuel, hence what is the maximum range achievable ?
OR
With fuel for the longest anticipated sector, what payload can be carried ?
In both cases is the need for a nonstop flight essential?. Is a tech stop feasible, even an attractive option ?
It then becomes a commercial decision for each company as to whether it can operate profitably within those constraints. Those posters who have pointed to the previous operation of 747 cargo flights through Manston are perfectly correct to do so. As I understand it these were regular flights not one-off charters and they only ceased using Manston when its closure became inevitable.
For the record I am not expressing a view as to likely success of a reopened MSE.
Are you aware of the minimal profit margins in the dog eat dog air freight business and how "Every kilo counts"?
Cast your mind back to the B747F crash in Bishkek a few months back, the aircraft was en-route HKG/IST, a walk in the park for a B747-400, except that being a freighter it was so damn heavy out of HKG they couldn't get enough fuel on to make it direct to IST thus it was tech stopping for fuel in Bishkek ... "Every kilo counts"!
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Harry. I can't speak for 01475 but I think you may have missed the point of their post. Manston has cornered the niche market of mostly empty aircraft over a number of years now. We are told the Amsterdam flights were a long way from being anything like full, and I can personally vouch for the large number of EUjet flights carrying fewer than 10 people. We are all familiar with nouvelle cuisine- a small amount of food on a big plate. Manston could tap into the market for "Nouvelle Aviation".
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Facts about Manston
Manston averaged circa 25,000 tonnes of cargo per annum, was 8th largest airport in the UK for total freight handled and was 5th largest for freighter dedicated cargo (i.e. not under floor cargo).
CargoLux served the airport with their fleet of 747's as did others and they weren't put off by the runway length.
Inbound freight was the biggest business, especially fresh produce.
3 large warehouses, one dedicated exclusively to refrigerated produce (100 tonnes could be kept refrigerated at anyone time). Equine Border Post was state of the art.
No night time flying then. However just before the airport sold night time flying was about to be approved. With night time flying and the London markets crying out for fresh produce early in the morning, coupled with a 10 minute "landing to first truck on the road" time, there can be a future for Manston in freight operations.
Sometimes people overlook the facts.
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Manston may have been 5th/8th largest airport for freight, but if memory serves the last time I checked CAA stats this translated to approx 1% of UK freight yield. Not much. The Equine border post was widely publicised some years ago but remained virtually unused according to recent reports.
I think the most fundamental fact is that no one has ever made any money out of running the place as an airport……..
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Harry. I can't speak for 01475 but I think you may have missed the point of their post. Manston has cornered the niche market of mostly empty aircraft over a number of years now. We are told the Amsterdam flights were a long way from being anything like full, and I can personally vouch for the large number of EUjet flights carrying fewer than 10 people. We are all familiar with nouvelle cuisine- a small amount of food on a big plate. Manston could tap into the market for "Nouvelle Aviation".
Regarding AMS I'll speak in Manston's favour regarding that one ... In this day and age and particularly on this forum people only think LCC type point to point traffic whereas the mentality is often that those Manston passengers were only travelling to/from AMS at perhaps something like GBP100 round trip.
But the truth is that those passengers were travelling to/from much further afield than AMS and paying perhaps an average several hundreds of GBP's per round trip so whilst people may mock the loads of whatever, 30 or 40%, but a 30 or 40% KLM load probably generates more revenue than a 90% LCC load.
Previously I put empty freighters in to Manston, they went there for maintenance with Jet Support but as I understand it at the time Manston closed there was no heavy jet maintenance provider whilst the future proposal is freight, not maintenance.
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Apologies; I was confusingly obtuse and sarcastic at the same time!
I'd love all the airports to succeed. But fate stepped on Manston's toe and walked off.
I wasn't of course suggesting that maintenance, part loaded freighters, AMS flights or Very Important And Significant Fire Training make an airport.
Re the AMS flights, the loadings clearly weren't a problem to KLM as KLM were upset they had to stop. But then just about any airport with a non-grass runway can support flights to AMS... But they are a problem to the airport, as they indicate that this is how many people a day want to fly from Manston to far more than just AMS.
If I were to try to be positive and see a future then clearly it would not be to try to recreate a part of what the airport was before, which already hasn't worked. And I can't see an alternative when the SE already has so many other airports.
Sadly this airport is probably less needed than Ciudad Real's.
I'd love all the airports to succeed. But fate stepped on Manston's toe and walked off.
I wasn't of course suggesting that maintenance, part loaded freighters, AMS flights or Very Important And Significant Fire Training make an airport.
Re the AMS flights, the loadings clearly weren't a problem to KLM as KLM were upset they had to stop. But then just about any airport with a non-grass runway can support flights to AMS... But they are a problem to the airport, as they indicate that this is how many people a day want to fly from Manston to far more than just AMS.
If I were to try to be positive and see a future then clearly it would not be to try to recreate a part of what the airport was before, which already hasn't worked. And I can't see an alternative when the SE already has so many other airports.
Sadly this airport is probably less needed than Ciudad Real's.
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For you who are not aware, some aviation is still taking place at Manston with Polar Helicopters still operating.
Ask youselves this, as many local people are:
Where are these businesses going to come from for the industrial units if they are ever built? There are hardly any locally showing interest. Is there a queue of would be companies looking to sign up? I think not.
Similarly where are the occupants for the proposed houses to come from? Workers in the yet to be new business park? More communters to/from London? Sure there is a train that can wisk people to/from the Capital in just over an hour, but is there any room on the rails/stock to expand these services and other required infrastructure, schools, health care units etc?
What is obvious there are the solar panels in fields which used to grow crops, with sheep grazing around them, keeping the weeds down. There isn't much employment in that, but its fairly new and forward thinking in producing lamb as a bi-product of electricity production. Also the massive produce growing houses being errected, where conditions are controlled to maximise product/yield. Not much employment there either. Add the Tattinger investment in new vinyards, ( practically same soil and conditions as in France to grow grapes for fizz) again maintained under modern controlled/covered conditions and that is about it.
Perhaps Manston's fate is to become a massive temperature controlled sea of growing houses for fruit and veg (some not native to Britain and presently imported) to feed not only the UK's requirements, but export to Europe and other parts of the World as well.
Ask youselves this, as many local people are:
Where are these businesses going to come from for the industrial units if they are ever built? There are hardly any locally showing interest. Is there a queue of would be companies looking to sign up? I think not.
Similarly where are the occupants for the proposed houses to come from? Workers in the yet to be new business park? More communters to/from London? Sure there is a train that can wisk people to/from the Capital in just over an hour, but is there any room on the rails/stock to expand these services and other required infrastructure, schools, health care units etc?
What is obvious there are the solar panels in fields which used to grow crops, with sheep grazing around them, keeping the weeds down. There isn't much employment in that, but its fairly new and forward thinking in producing lamb as a bi-product of electricity production. Also the massive produce growing houses being errected, where conditions are controlled to maximise product/yield. Not much employment there either. Add the Tattinger investment in new vinyards, ( practically same soil and conditions as in France to grow grapes for fizz) again maintained under modern controlled/covered conditions and that is about it.
Perhaps Manston's fate is to become a massive temperature controlled sea of growing houses for fruit and veg (some not native to Britain and presently imported) to feed not only the UK's requirements, but export to Europe and other parts of the World as well.
Last edited by IB4138; 13th May 2017 at 13:37.
Perhaps Manston's fate is to become a massive temperature controlled sea of growing houses for fruit and veg (some not native to Britain and presently imported)
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A Manston Airport Forecast, compiled by the Save Manston Airport association, from RiverOak Report Volume 3 by Dr. Dixon.
Dr. Dixon's report may be seen at :
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...ecast-2017.pdf
For those that would rather read a precis :
The figures in Dr. Dixon’s forecast for Manston Airport have not just been plucked from the air, but have been derived from over a year’s worth of data collection and detailed analysis. See Volumes 1 & 2 for more details.
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...he-uk-2017.pdf
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...emand-2017.pdf
The air freight forecasting method that Dr. Dixon has used is based on the following methods :
The collection and analysis of this data is described in Volume II of this series of reports and consisted of face-to-face interviews with representatives from key stakeholder groups including Kent transport infrastructure, Government and public sector, industry associations, freight forwarders and consolidators, local businesses who import/export, and cargo airlines.
Other data was used to provide an overview of the industry, which allowed the primary data to be put into a global and national context ….. [and] to project growth from the short- and medium-term market data forecasts.
“… freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic ….” (Boeing, 2014)
In addition, the qualitative findings indicated several issues that present opportunities for Manston Airport. These include the [lack of] sufficiency of slots at South East airports, bumping of freight from passenger aircraft, security issues particularly with outsized cargo speed of turnaround and bottlenecks for air freight a particular concern due to, “longer processing time because of security” (ACI-NA, 2013, p. 5), and review of current regulatory controls on the charges and services Heathrow offers to airlines, due to expire at the end of 2018.
The passenger forecasting method used by Dr. Sally Dixon were as follows :
Interviews were carried out to establish the potential markets for the airport, which include: Resumption of scheduled service twice daily to a hub airport, a [low cost carrier] base for two aircraft at Manston rising to three, the charter market resuming, stimulated by regional developments such as the Paramount theme park and Ebbsfleet Garden City development, which are expected to increase demand for both in- and outbound flights, and flights from the US that tie up with cruise ships leaving from Dover.
It should be noted that the key next steps, in calculating the expected number of freight movements and tonnage forecasts, involve detailed considerations over the predicted plane types (ICAO design code) , and similarly for passenger forecasts by year and by ICAO design code.
A key point is that to enable these increased freight and passenger movements both additional plane parking stands (from the current ~2) and other infrastructure upgrades are required : freight operations commence in year 2 with 7 freight plane parking stands, and there are expected to be 13 by year 5, with 19 by year 20. Passenger operations will commence in year 3 with 3 stands, with another added in year 15.
The key forecast figures, to be carried over into the detailed jobs calculations in Volume 4, are as follows :
Table 1 Summary 20 year freight and passenger forecast - extracting just Years 5, 10, 20 :
Dr. Dixon's report may be seen at :
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...ecast-2017.pdf
For those that would rather read a precis :
The figures in Dr. Dixon’s forecast for Manston Airport have not just been plucked from the air, but have been derived from over a year’s worth of data collection and detailed analysis. See Volumes 1 & 2 for more details.
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...he-uk-2017.pdf
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...emand-2017.pdf
The air freight forecasting method that Dr. Dixon has used is based on the following methods :
The collection and analysis of this data is described in Volume II of this series of reports and consisted of face-to-face interviews with representatives from key stakeholder groups including Kent transport infrastructure, Government and public sector, industry associations, freight forwarders and consolidators, local businesses who import/export, and cargo airlines.
Other data was used to provide an overview of the industry, which allowed the primary data to be put into a global and national context ….. [and] to project growth from the short- and medium-term market data forecasts.
“… freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic ….” (Boeing, 2014)
In addition, the qualitative findings indicated several issues that present opportunities for Manston Airport. These include the [lack of] sufficiency of slots at South East airports, bumping of freight from passenger aircraft, security issues particularly with outsized cargo speed of turnaround and bottlenecks for air freight a particular concern due to, “longer processing time because of security” (ACI-NA, 2013, p. 5), and review of current regulatory controls on the charges and services Heathrow offers to airlines, due to expire at the end of 2018.
The passenger forecasting method used by Dr. Sally Dixon were as follows :
Interviews were carried out to establish the potential markets for the airport, which include: Resumption of scheduled service twice daily to a hub airport, a [low cost carrier] base for two aircraft at Manston rising to three, the charter market resuming, stimulated by regional developments such as the Paramount theme park and Ebbsfleet Garden City development, which are expected to increase demand for both in- and outbound flights, and flights from the US that tie up with cruise ships leaving from Dover.
It should be noted that the key next steps, in calculating the expected number of freight movements and tonnage forecasts, involve detailed considerations over the predicted plane types (ICAO design code) , and similarly for passenger forecasts by year and by ICAO design code.
A key point is that to enable these increased freight and passenger movements both additional plane parking stands (from the current ~2) and other infrastructure upgrades are required : freight operations commence in year 2 with 7 freight plane parking stands, and there are expected to be 13 by year 5, with 19 by year 20. Passenger operations will commence in year 3 with 3 stands, with another added in year 15.
The key forecast figures, to be carried over into the detailed jobs calculations in Volume 4, are as follows :
Table 1 Summary 20 year freight and passenger forecast - extracting just Years 5, 10, 20 :
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So Doc,
Noting that Sally has supposedly communicated with cargo airlines and noting her very detailed analysis predicting 340,000 metric tons of cargo by year 20, without the time nor enthusiasm to read thru tens or hundreds of pages of gumph, can you explain which UK airport(s) these cargo airlines are utilising at the moment to fly their thousands of metric tons of cargo thru?
Noting that Sally has supposedly communicated with cargo airlines and noting her very detailed analysis predicting 340,000 metric tons of cargo by year 20, without the time nor enthusiasm to read thru tens or hundreds of pages of gumph, can you explain which UK airport(s) these cargo airlines are utilising at the moment to fly their thousands of metric tons of cargo thru?