A Manston Airport Forecast, compiled by the Save Manston Airport association, from RiverOak Report Volume 3 by Dr. Dixon.
Dr. Dixon's report may be seen at :
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...ecast-2017.pdf
For those that would rather read a precis :
The figures in Dr. Dixon’s forecast for Manston Airport have not just been plucked from the air, but have been derived from over a year’s worth of data collection and detailed analysis. See Volumes 1 & 2 for more details.
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...he-uk-2017.pdf
https://static.secure.website/wscfus...emand-2017.pdf
The air freight forecasting method that Dr. Dixon has used is based on the following methods :
The collection and analysis of this data is described in Volume II of this series of reports and consisted of face-to-face interviews with representatives from key stakeholder groups including Kent transport infrastructure, Government and public sector, industry associations, freight forwarders and consolidators, local businesses who import/export, and cargo airlines.
Other data was used to provide an overview of the industry, which allowed the primary data to be put into a global and national context ….. [and] to project growth from the short- and medium-term market data forecasts.
“… freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic ….” (Boeing, 2014)
In addition, the qualitative findings indicated several issues that present opportunities for Manston Airport. These include the [lack of] sufficiency of slots at South East airports, bumping of freight from passenger aircraft, security issues particularly with outsized cargo speed of turnaround and bottlenecks for air freight a particular concern due to, “longer processing time because of security” (ACI-NA, 2013, p. 5), and review of current regulatory controls on the charges and services Heathrow offers to airlines, due to expire at the end of 2018.
The passenger forecasting method used by Dr. Sally Dixon were as follows :
Interviews were carried out to establish the potential markets for the airport, which include: Resumption of scheduled service twice daily to a hub airport, a [low cost carrier] base for two aircraft at Manston rising to three, the charter market resuming, stimulated by regional developments such as the Paramount theme park and Ebbsfleet Garden City development, which are expected to increase demand for both in- and outbound flights, and flights from the US that tie up with cruise ships leaving from Dover.
It should be noted that the key next steps, in calculating the expected number of freight movements and tonnage forecasts, involve detailed considerations over the predicted plane types (ICAO design code) , and similarly for passenger forecasts by year and by ICAO design code.
A key point is that to enable these increased freight and passenger movements both additional plane parking stands (from the current ~2) and other infrastructure upgrades are required : freight operations commence in year 2 with 7 freight plane parking stands, and there are expected to be 13 by year 5, with 19 by year 20. Passenger operations will commence in year 3 with 3 stands, with another added in year 15.
The key forecast figures, to be carried over into the detailed jobs calculations in Volume 4, are as follows :
Table 1 Summary 20 year freight and passenger forecast - extracting just Years 5, 10, 20 :
