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BELFAST (BHD) - 3

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Old 13th Mar 2011, 17:03
  #4201 (permalink)  
 
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Where do you find the figures showing bmi baby are doing better at the city, the stats I saw don't support this, and why would waiting on the STN, which didn't operate at BFS, give the fuller picture. I think their move, for zero charges and a share of the fuel revenue or whatever the full deal offered by the airport included, in response to the face of the threat to relocate or downsize the LHR has so far seriously underperformed and will in the longer term prove to be another very poor decision for an airline quite expert at making very poor decisions. My thoughts!
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Old 13th Mar 2011, 17:17
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Bellboy

You might want WW to fail (at BHD) for some reason, but that doesn't make it happen, i think everyone with any idea about WW & bmi thinks this is one of their (few) better business decisions!!

The loads & prices are far higher than what they had out of BFS.

STN is a huge gamble given that the are basing an aircraft at BHD to do it and WW have never ever operated into STN.

I have used the service to BHD from both BHX & EMA and the loads were much higher than before to BFS, the EMA flights used to be in the 50's the last time i flew to BHD fro EMA there was 142 on it
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Old 13th Mar 2011, 20:02
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vicroria73

Itotally agree with belboy whats the passenger figures with flybe like on the Bhx&Man routes like these days ? because baby moved down to Bhd that does not mean to say people are going to start flying good god every airport will have baby operating for free from there airport if its gonna bring passengers in the door. the numbers of people using domestic flights between Belfast and the mainland is declining each year all they are doing is moving from one airline to the next or one airport to another its gonna end one of these days.As and when Bfs get these routes restored which they more likely will then thats when you will see if Bmi move down the road was a good move i would say not because you will have two carriers fighting for the business that would be left down there.
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Old 13th Mar 2011, 20:36
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flb, I dont want WW or any other airline to fail, but when those routes start again at Aldergrove, the fight between the two at city will result in losses and this will impact the airlines. I think it grossly unfair that this will cost flybe who have always supported the city from the early days. Still don't see how STN can be used in this comparison, and dont think it wise for WW to go onto this route, someone might challenge them!
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Old 13th Mar 2011, 20:45
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BHX/EMA

I noted the flybe January2011 figures down for BHX & EMA before the combined figures were quoted but for some reason not Manchester.

Source CAA

January 2011 BHX 21261 of which 12318 were flybe and 8943 BMI Baby.

BMI baby carried 7726 between BHX & BFS in January 2010. Therefore Baby carried an extra 1217 pax or 16%.

January 2001 EMA 12684 of which 3312 were flybe and 9372 were Baby.

BMI Baby carried 4749 between EMA and BFS in January 2010. Therefore baby increased their pax by 4643 or a whopping 97%.

Obviously there were more EMA rotations in January 2011 (less BHX services in 2011 although I might have missed some from libhomeradar) than 2010 and less weather problems this year.

flybe at BHX averaged 59 pax per flight in January 2011 or 63% load factor.

BMI Baby at BHX averaged 86 pax per flight or 58% load factor in Jan 2011 and these are my estimates based rotations from libhomeradar, which could be slightly out. Baby all based on 149 seats as the 500's were rare in BHX during January 2011.

flybe at BHX averaged 48 per flight in Jan 2010 and BMI Baby 69 per flight and that is fact from the CAA punctuality stats. So flybe add 20% to their load factor and baby 25%. Although this of course is assuming my 2011 figure for rotations is correct which I can't be sure off for a couple of months.

No figures for EMA although I think flybe averaged 33 per flight or 42%LF
in Jan 2011- that is just a guess based on 100 rotations per libhomeradar.

Obviously it says nothing about yields, cancellations or diversions.

Pete

Last edited by OltonPete; 13th Mar 2011 at 20:47. Reason: added text
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 01:22
  #4206 (permalink)  
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BMI Baby carried 4749 between EMA and BFS in January 2010. Therefore baby increased their pax by 4643 or a whopping 97%.
WW carried 10516 BFS/EMA in Nov 2010 compared with 6384 in Nov 2009. Are these increases not the fact that FR has vacated BHD/EMA.
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 16:01
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There is so much negativity here about bmibaby moving to BHD. Some people seem annoyed they have moved and are preforming well. As for Stansted.... whats the problem with baby starting the route. . . . ? The airport wanted the Stansted route filled with a carrier and baby are doing this. . . . . so what baby are new to STN . . . . cant they at least have a go at making the route work . . . stop comparing bmi mainline to LHR and baby to STN . . .its not anything suspicious... trying to wind down LHR in favour of " low cost " to STN. NO !! Its competition! Baby are out to turn a profit like everyone else and its up the other carriers ( flybe ) to respond to any changes or challenges in the market.
If someone from BFS starts to MAN,EMA,BHX etc then good for them.... more competition . . . Thats all . . .so make the most of the situation and use whatever carrier you prefer and leave the ones you dont like to get on with it . . . simple !!
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 16:53
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trying to wind down LHR in favour of " low cost " to STN
bmi want the UK domestic and DUB slots at LHR for something more profitable going forward. Simples.

(sorry)
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 17:58
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Thumbs down

So, I was looking into airports with rail links last night, as I have in the past and I realised that Prestwick Airport has a rail-link. So what you might say. But the reason this is special is because it has similar circumstances. It used to have similar passenger numbers but thanks to Ryanair concentrating on EDI the pax have fallen recently. There is also a dual carriage way between the airport and the station/track.

Look at the maps linked below:
Prestwick
Google Maps

It managed 700,000 passengers last year alone.

My proposal for BHD
BHD Air Link - Google Maps

This proposal would help rail travel continue to increase beyond 10million last year, up 60% from 2005. Could easily handle 1,000,000 passengers per year increasing rail travel in NI by 10% alone. And making further green alternatives for NI passengers and visitors.

The time for implementation is now!
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 19:59
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NorthernCounties

Great idea, just one question, who pays for it?
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 20:19
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Valid point ink, but in theory Translink (+DRDNI) and the Airport. Two years ago an intercity rail station and bus terminal opened in Newry... which was manned and had a 300 space car park. It cost a grand total of £14.7million and has two platforms long enough for 9 carsets. What I'd propose is a non-manned low-cost no frills station to be built on land already owned by NIR. Perhaps platform space for three coachs (if staying budget) or possibly four (if you plan ahead.)

Not being crazy, I say you could do it for under £6million. Now say it does achieve 1million pax per annum which is possible if you look at Prestwick. And they spend on average £2.50 one way, that route could generate £2.5million per year, without adding extra services. It could be serviced by Bangor - Belfast/Portadown trains, which means no expense made on extra train services to and from the airport. This could techniquely pay it's way in under 3 years, whilst increasing transit from BHD, improving rail ridership figures and eleviating traffic from the Sydenham Bypass which is possible going to require widening due to traffic. (I would set the station far as possible of the road.)

Yes my calculations are crude, but there is logic to this, and I'm not just crazed person shouting about the need for a train station without any thought for how it'd be financed or able.

One last note, the DRDNI (Department for Region Development whom are responsible for NI's infrastructure) have just recently been provided with an extra £108million. And Conor Murphys not really commited this to anything yet. So even he could pay it, unless it all goes to a bypass in the North West.
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 20:28
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Don't forget Southampton airport parkway - another railway station right beside an airport.

This actually is a good idea, but for it to work, trains would have to run at 20 minute intervals all day and actually go further than just Belfast Central Station - could trains run to Londonderry, Larne and Newry every hour for example?
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 20:45
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Thank you Copenhagen Yes the list of airports serviced by railway stations in Great Britain is endless. However, Conor Murphy the minister responsible for the DRDNI has laughabley said that for a rail station to be worthwhile it would require the airport to have a minimum of 10 million passengers per year. Conviently higher than any airport in NI and more laughable since BHX has had a railway station for some 30 years now and is still less than 10million pax.

Other services would definitely help firstly to Central Station but if it continued to Great Victoria Street (actually the more central of the two stations) it would also pass Botanic Station which is right next Queens University.

Services to Portadown would also call at Lisburn, Lurgan and all the other small stations in between. The next longer distance route perhaps would be Newry. L'Derry would also be good but I'm not sure would the time at present be competitive but you could always change at Central Station.

I do believe currently trains are every thirty mins and 15 at peak, but naturally the frequencies could increase if the demand (and profits) are realised.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 10:10
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This is exactly the proposal that was floated a couple of years ago by the developers behind the new stadium and sports complex that would have sat south of the railway line in Sydenham. Their planning application proposed a new railway station (often called a 'halt' in NI to calm politicians nervous of any captial expense) on the site you've identified, with enclosed footbridges (like Prestwick) to both the airport terminal and the stadium.

They seemed to hint that since they'd both benefit, they could share the costs with NIR, DRD etc. However that plan seemed to evaporate.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 11:03
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I'm not surprised that it's been suggested before because it's obvious really. But unfortunately whether it's a lack of initiative, foresight or funds it probably won't happen in the next 5 years.

I do believe that even the Airport could open and operate this successfully on it's own but would probably ask for a cut in sales going towards NIR. Although it would be better if they done the project joint.

A halt is exactly what it would be and I'm sure there is other avenues of revenue than just tickets. They could stick an ATM and a few vending machines in it to recieve rentals. I hear you can get around 15-30k per ATM space per annum..

But perhaps with passenger number growth at BHD, and the need to cut congestion, management at the airport may decide to self fund or seek funding in the next budget period after 2015. Fingers crossed!
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 16:01
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The trouble is, unlike at BFS, the equivalent Translink bus service from BHD is just fine for getting to Belfast - 10 - 15 minutes to town and it's not unreasonably priced.

At Aldergrove the cost of a new station would be much more (as well as re-establishing service from scratch on the mothballed line) but it could at least offer significant rush hour journey time savings over the bus, which has to deal with the M2. I frequently fly in before 08:00 and spend more than an hour on the bus getting to town.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 16:13
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skipness one echo

Sorry . . . . . check back in 6 months and see if mainline BHD has had all its slots taken for " bigger " things. . . . . i doubt it!!
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 18:20
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BHD-MSE should be a connection via EDI and/or MAN. Not a non-stop flight
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 18:22
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Manston

Quote
Flybe BHD to Manston Kent then this summer......

All I am getting is via EDI not direct.

Not as good as BHX-NOC via EDI when baby fly direct in half the time.

Pete
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 20:07
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Manston

WingoWango


It just looks like it has hit the Kent press before the flybe website.

The service via EDI is bookable before 26/05/11 so it looks like
the flybe press release has still to be issued.




Pete
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