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Old 6th Jan 2007, 17:36
  #161 (permalink)  
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The only way Manston will ever make money is the same way that any other regional airport makes money - by having a large throughput of passengers using terminal franchises.

The BAA have been using this concept for around 20 years now, the rest of the UK airports realised as soon as the low cost airline model started that the days of making money from passenger taxes were long gone.
So, that leaves Manston, almost a freight only operation in 2005, 2006 and 2007, with very little prospect of ever attracting any low cost operators at all.

Manston never has and never will be a viable proposition as an airport, although as I've said in previous posts, congrat's to the current investors who have seen the opportunity to buy an airport which will be an extremely profitable building site.

Last edited by Evileyes; 7th Jan 2007 at 15:02. Reason: Removed personal attack. Strike One.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 09:17
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Jes posted the following:
"DAS have plans to expand (I know more but can't say)"

This doesn't quite square with the rumours on the DAS thread under Freight Dogs. According to that thread DAS has effectively mothballed most of its aircraft. Could it be that Jes is only partially correct? i.e. DAS has plans to expand.....but they will never come to fruition.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 12:03
  #163 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by catflaps
Jes posted the following:
"DAS has plans to expand.....but they will never come to fruition.
That why its called a rummour network
DAS(ANA) are still flying with other fames, if unbanned they will expand there fleet again.
There will always be a need for 'us' to eat and buy flowers for mothers day. And as 'we' don't want to spend much, whoever might take over won't be flying into LHR.

Last edited by fj1; 7th Jan 2007 at 12:17.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 12:31
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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As I keep saying Southampton started with less than 200,000 passengers, BAA built a new terminal and they now have 1.8million passengers. They are now applying to build a second terminal. Southampton does have a great benefit that Manston doesnt have and thats a Parkway station which offers a fast service into London, maybe this will come who knows?

Manston started with EUjet only and attracted 400,000 passengers! I admit mistakes were made but Infratil have experience of running airports whereas Planestation didn't.

Lydd may well beat Manston to it but as I have said before whichever becomes a success it will be good for East Kent.

Mdis
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 13:01
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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DAS

There was a lot of engine maintenance taking place on Friday

Mothballing or readying for action?

This is a genuine question with no slant either way.

Mdis
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 13:16
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Hello all,

I have been keeping a close eye on the Manston Thread for sometime now and always read with interest the different views put forward. I worked at Manston prior to the RAF moving out and during the first few years of Wiggins. I have kept in touch with the place over the last few years and am keen to see the airport do well.

I don’t want offend anybody and I’m not seeking to stifle peoples optimistic views on here by posting negative ones. However, I do feel the urge to add my own opinion…

Manston / Thanet has 3 problems – Location, Location and Location

Thanet is closer to France than it is to London and is surrounded on 3 sides by water. This leaves only one route in and one route out. Manston is always going to be limited by the amount of people who can access the airfield. Someone else has said how bad the roads are and it’s true! The rail links are not much better, Ramsgate to Victoria is approximately 70 miles by train and it takes 2hr10. Get on at Ramsgate and you’ve stopped five times before you get to Herne Bay.

I digress...

I think that it's pretty straight forward. To stay in any business we must assume that you have to make a profit or at least breakeven. Now I don't know what the fixed costs are to run MSE for a year (I would love to know how much it costs just to open for business every day - even before you have had your first movement of the day) but the amount aircraft operating in and out of MSE can't be making the airport any money. The airfield is huge and it needs far more money coming in.

So if there aren't enough movements generating Landing & Handling Fees etc - what about Rent? I can't imagine that there are enough Tenants paying Rent to trade at MSE either. I can only think of TG Aviation, Enterprise Car Hire and Starbucks... (I admit that's a cynical view and there are genuinely more than those three - but there isn't an impressive portfolio)

Even if an airline or engineering company did move to MSE – who’s going to work for them? Who are they going to employ? There are three very good schools in the area that produce good students, Chatham / Clarenden House & Dane Court. (I didn’t go to any of those three) Most people with an education are leaving school and going to University and then leaving the area. There are a large number of people in Thanet who are either, a Pensioner, a Pregnant Teenager, on the dole, on benefit, claiming asylum or on a suspended sentence – which leaves the rest of the locals to work and pay for the rest!

Unemployment is high and even if you do get a job, wages are low.

Wander in to TG Aviation on a nice day – it’s hardly bursting at the seems with Students and it’s one of the nicest, friendliest, well presented flying schools in the country…

Manston needs to down size, reduce its costs and be realistic. If it was 50% or even better 25% of its current size it would take the pressure off the owners.

That huge airfield, sits empty, gathering dust, but the taxiways, the grass, aprons the fencing, the lighting etc all still need to be maintained and still cost money.

Downsize and take a bit of weight of the Infratil corporate bladder!

I wish it all the very best of luck – really I do!! – but we have seen it all before!

XD
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 16:20
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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The majority of passengers who will use Manston are not interested in its proximity to London. They want to get to the airport fly somewhere eg Manchester, Dublin, Edinburgh, Amsterdam and then return to Manston. If people from Kent want to go to London they will either drive or take the train. The rail link to London is poor at best so Manston should never be marketed as London. Even RYA would struggle with that one.

Do not assume that airlines who use Manston need to be based there. Therefore the crews will be based elsewhere. There didnt seem to be too much trouble in recruiting staff when Eujet were operating. Not too many of them fell into the categories as suggested.

Manston may be surrounded on 3 sides by water but as I keep having to remind everyone 400,000 passengers managed to get in and out using one road!!

The point about income is valid and with the current traffic I am sure the owners are in a loss situation but they seem able to absorb this, at least in the short to medium term.

Just to clarify the information on tenants is a little out of date. Enterprise car hire have departed and the coffee shop is not a starbucks. Brockmans travel agency is to begin operations this month from the terminal. DAS are using the old Jet Support Facility and Air Atlanta have a line maintenance facility and there are others.

Mdis
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 19:09
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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"I don't know what the fixed costs are to run MSE for a year (I would love to know how much it costs just to open for business every day"

I have seen a letter sent by the former MP for Thanet South, Jonathan Aitken to one of his constituents, in 1995. In that letter, he wasn't positive about the prospects of commercialization of Manston. He cited the cost of running the airfield at £7million per year. Presumably, the cost today could be almost double that; and that's before you start spending on capital projects. However, I'm guessing they've saved a bit by using sheep to graze the Northern Grass instead of cutting it.

If you get an average £200 for a landing fee, I estimate that you need 70,000 landings a year to break even (that's about 210 per day). Does anyone know how much MK pay for landing one of their 747's.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 19:12
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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MDIS,

I'm not someone who is anti-manston, honestly!

I used to attend the airport meetings when Wiggins took ownership post the RAF departure. I used to become increasingly frustrated listening to all the local residents complaining about the possible noise and OOH movements etc etc - I would love to see Manston do really well.

However, we've all been having the same old arguments and the same debates for the last 20 - 25 years and things never seem to progress.

I appreciate what you're saying about the amount of people who live within 'X' journey of the airport and 'X' amount of people flew from there during EU Jets period of operation - but the fact is - nothing is ever going to change. Manston is never going to develop into a real airport with Pax / Freight operators coming in and out all day everyday. If it was - this thread would not be running.

Companies come to Manston and companies go. A business cannot rely on the people of Thanet to keep it in business and when you start to look further afield to Medway and Tonbridge etc, Pax would rather drive to Gatwick because it's easier and it has more to offer than an expensive car park, a coffee shop and Brockmans Travel.

Time will tell and I hope I'm wrong, but what are Infratil going to do that hasn't been done already to bring the aircraft owners/operators, passengers and freight to Manston?

Last edited by Xavier Dosh; 7th Jan 2007 at 19:35.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 19:17
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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Just a quick question..

400,000 passengers?

When was that?
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 19:56
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not say that you are anti Manston , I'm just trying to say that not everyone wants or needs to go to London.

The previous owners were egotitstcal, ill informed speculators who collapsed in a big way with other peoples money.

400,000 pax is what Eujet were on target to carry in their first full year.

If I needed to go to a destination that Manston served I would rather fly from MSE than antwhere else provided that the times suited me, if not I would go from LGW, LHR, LCY or STN
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 20:01
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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Jonathon Aitken a man to be trusted???

On April 10, 1995, The Guardian carried a front-page report on Aitken's dealings with leading Saudis. The story was the result of a long investigation carried out by journalists from the newspaper and from Granada TV's World In Action programme. By 5 o'clock that evening, Aitken had called a press conference at the Conservative Party offices in Smith Square, London, denouncing the reports and demanding that the World In Action programme, due to be screened three hours later, withdraw them.
During this press conference, Aitken made his notorious speech: "If it falls to me to start a fight to cut out the cancer of bent and twisted journalism in our country with the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play, so be it. I am ready for the fight. The fight against falsehood and those who peddle it. My fight begins today. Thank you and good afternoon."

Aitken was charged with perjury and perverting the course of justice, and in 1999 was jailed for 18 months, of which he served seven. During the trial, his wife Lolicia, who later left him, was called as a witness to sign a supportive affidavit to the effect that she had paid his Paris hotel bill, but did not appear. In the end, with the case already in court, investigative work by Guardian reporters into Swiss hotel British Airways records showed that neither Victoria nor Lolicia had been in Paris at the time in question.
Aitken was unable to cover the legal costs of his trial and was declared bankrupt. As part of the bankruptcy, his trustees settled legal actions against the magazine Private Eye, over the various claims it had made that Aitken was a "serial liar". He also became one of the few people to resign from the Privy Council

£7 Million a year. Only if you were paying his travel costs.

Mdis
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 08:10
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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Jonathon Aitken a man to be trusted???

What on earth has this got to do with Manston ?
I joined this forum to find out about news and rumours about the Airport, we just have the same stuff, week after week.
I notice that if use a serch engine and ask for manston news your find a lot of these posts on ppunne.
Picked up one a few weeks ago that houses were going to built on the site on yahoo. I am sure that some forum members have a agenda to put the airport down.
I am leaving this forum, my last post. its pointless because if any one posts good news, it's put down at once with doom and gloom, which just causes bad feeling and heated words being left, upsetting the mods.
It says on the Tin rumour network not the case.
goodbye
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 08:18
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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Herne Bay

I was trying to point out that information being posted from 1995 by someone who is a convicted liar has absolutely no relevence to the current situation at MSE.

Mdis
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 09:06
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Oh dear!

I'm sorry if I have caused people to go off subject slightly - I have to say the 'Aitken bit' lost me too!

I think most people realise that the guy was a numpty - but Catflaps was only quoting a figure in response to my comments.

I'm not too sure where you 400,000 from - but simple maths would tell me that was very very optimistic.

You say that 400,000 people got ot Manston by one road? Do you mean 400,000? or do you mean 200,000? That would see a turnover of 400,000!

Obviously 400,000 or 200,000 or whatever it really was - was not enough, otherwise they would still be trading!

You can keep quoting numbers and you can keep quoting weird and wonderful things about JA - but the fact is - nobody is making any money at Manston. Apart from the Merlin Cafe - they seem to do a good trade regardless!

Feel free to email me or post a message when I'm proved wrong!!!

I genuinely hope that I am wrong and I sincerely hope that the airport becomes a thriving business and employes lots of local people...

XD
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 10:19
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xavier Dosh
I'm not too sure where you 400,000 from - but simple maths would tell me that was very very optimistic.

You say that 400,000 people got ot Manston by one road? Do you mean 400,000? or do you mean 200,000? That would see a turnover of 400,000!
I think the figure of 400,000 relates to passengers carried by EUjet - i.e. approx. 200,000 out and 200,000 back. And it's a projection, based on about 9 months operation, presumably with some allowance for the fact that the remaining 3 months would have been just about their busiest.

Originally Posted by Xavier Dosh
Obviously 400,000 or 200,000 or whatever it really was - was not enough, otherwise they would still be trading!
That's an over simplification. EUjet could hypothetically have flown to more destinations, more often, and the passenger numbers would have increased - but so would their losses. The problem wasn't just the passenger numbers - it was that the wrong aircraft were flying to the wrong places with the wrong frequency, often less than half full.
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 10:34
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry,

When the Aitken name was mentioned I just remembered something about him being prosecuted and found the info on Wikipedia. I was trying to point out that the guy couldnt be trusted, therefore his £7Million claim may well have been pie in the sky. Additionally this was 10 years ago and under different ownership. Once again apologies for going off at a tangent.

I think Infratil quoted some annual running costs when they took over but I cant find them, it may have been at a presentation I attended.

If it is double the 7Mill then that equates to £38k per day which does seem a tad high.

Found some details on Rateable values

Terminal £20,000
DAS Cargo Workshop £117,000
Airport £900,000

Other buildings are seperately rated.

UBR is 44.4p so the airport rates payable is £400,000

Just to pay the rates and assuming £200 is a an average landing fee 5.5 landings per day needed to cover it.

Mdis
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 13:27
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Andy S - good post!

So, out of interest

What would be the right aircraft?

The right routes?

The right frequency?

How profitbale would it be for the operator?

How profitable would it be for the airport?

MDIS - Surely 'Pie in the sky' would just about cover the majority of figures and projections quoted by KIA / Wiggins / PlaneStation over the years?

Everybody knows that Manston exists (operator wise). It's been around for years - and nobody is interested because it's no good for what airlines, operators, aircraft owners or engineering facilities want!

I am now and have been for sometime, a customer of Manston. Without taking anything away from the Ops / Ground Crew - they are NOT always very customer friendly. Their hours can be restrictive - they're not flexible - ATC hold themselves in quite high regard and often welcome your enquiry with a negative response.

It sounds petty, I know - but this 'no can do' attitude that often greets Operators is not a positive.

I really can't understand why so many people (mainly locals) get so excited about the prospects that Manston has.

Everyone in the industry gave EuJet 6months, 8months a year max! And they were right!

The airport is quite literally on the road to nowhere!
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 15:14
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xavier Dosh
Andy S - good post!

So, out of interest

What would be the right aircraft?

The right routes?

The right frequency?

How profitbale would it be for the operator?

How profitable would it be for the airport?
Xavier Dosh,

If I was able to answer your question in detail, I would quit my job and go run an airline.....

The point I was trying to make was that commercial viability and passenger numbers are not the same thing. It would have been easy enough (in theory) for EUjet to significantly increase passenger traffic simply by laying on more planes to more destinations. But unless they could fill those aircraft or get the passengers to pay more for their tickets, it would have been financially counterproductive. So the issue of 400,000 pax "not being enough", as you originally put it, rather misses the point.

I'm not suggesting for a moment that all EUjet needed to do to profitably transport 400,000 or more pax was reconsider their fleet and route structure. If anything, they needed to scale down their ambitions and focus on flying a smaller number of passengers, but profitably. But I'm not sure that would have suited the parent company, Planestation.
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 15:49
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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Andy

Another sensible post.

At Southampton they started with the following

Aurigny trislanders to Alderney. 9 seaters plus mail and some food supplies
Air UK Fokker F27s to Guernsey and Jersey not sure on seat capacity 50 seats?
British Regional Airways Jetstream J41 29 seats which were replaced with Embraer 50 seat regional jets.
Brymon British Aiways franchise Dash 8

None of these operators were low cost. a seat on the BA Express to EDI or GLA was £300 return but this was 10 years ago.

I dont know are there still people who would pay say £250 return to EDI?

XD I think what we are trying to say is that the Fokker 100 was too big to start with. Maybe someone needs to be looking at 50 seaters atr 42 or Dash 8 with a couple of routes. The best routes for EUjet were EDI, MAN, DUB and AMS.

MDIS
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