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AndyS
I see.
So, what is the answer to attracting Pax?
As an example:-
Ramsgate to Gatwick or Stansted is approximately 1hr30 drive, plus some time to park up and get to the Terminal.
Reasonable?
To encourage passengers to use Manston I would assume that we're all agreed that Manston has to offer something the above two don't.
Reasonable?
What can Manston offer that the others can't?
I guess some people on here would say that you can park right next to the terminal.. Big deal!
People are expressing their disappointment at how negative some of the posts are on here concerning Manstons future. I agree with them, but at the same time, REALISTICALY, what's going to change in 2007, 2008 or 2009 that will make any difference
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MDIS
You could be right - but who's going to pay £300 to fly to Manchester from Manston once a day?
Chaps - please do you not think that if there was a real demand for this service out of Manston, an operator would have jumped in once EuJet had departed?
I see.
So, what is the answer to attracting Pax?
As an example:-
Ramsgate to Gatwick or Stansted is approximately 1hr30 drive, plus some time to park up and get to the Terminal.
Reasonable?
To encourage passengers to use Manston I would assume that we're all agreed that Manston has to offer something the above two don't.
Reasonable?
What can Manston offer that the others can't?
I guess some people on here would say that you can park right next to the terminal.. Big deal!
People are expressing their disappointment at how negative some of the posts are on here concerning Manstons future. I agree with them, but at the same time, REALISTICALY, what's going to change in 2007, 2008 or 2009 that will make any difference
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MDIS
You could be right - but who's going to pay £300 to fly to Manchester from Manston once a day?
Chaps - please do you not think that if there was a real demand for this service out of Manston, an operator would have jumped in once EuJet had departed?
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Jes posted the following:
"DAS have plans to expand (I know more but can't say)"
This doesn't quite square with the rumours on the DAS thread under Freight Dogs. According to that thread DAS has effectively mothballed most of its aircraft. Could it be that Jes is only partially correct? i.e. DAS has plans to expand.....but they will never come to fruition.
"DAS have plans to expand (I know more but can't say)"
This doesn't quite square with the rumours on the DAS thread under Freight Dogs. According to that thread DAS has effectively mothballed most of its aircraft. Could it be that Jes is only partially correct? i.e. DAS has plans to expand.....but they will never come to fruition.
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MDIS
You could be right - but who's going to pay £300 to fly to Manchester from Manston once a day?
Chaps - please do you not think that if there was a real demand for this service out of Manston, an operator would have jumped in once EuJet had departed?[/quote]
XD you're right, 10 years ago there wasnt really an option so if you wanted to go to Scotland from SOU you paid the money.
I was at an Infratil presentation where it was stated that they were not "going to invite operators to play on their airfield until the infrastructure was in place" could be a sensible policy, could be a cop out to make an excuse for not attracting operators.
MDIS
You could be right - but who's going to pay £300 to fly to Manchester from Manston once a day?
Chaps - please do you not think that if there was a real demand for this service out of Manston, an operator would have jumped in once EuJet had departed?[/quote]
XD you're right, 10 years ago there wasnt really an option so if you wanted to go to Scotland from SOU you paid the money.
I was at an Infratil presentation where it was stated that they were not "going to invite operators to play on their airfield until the infrastructure was in place" could be a sensible policy, could be a cop out to make an excuse for not attracting operators.
MDIS
Last edited by MDIS; 8th Jan 2007 at 16:45. Reason: Spelling Mistake
AndyS
I see.
So, what is the answer to attracting Pax?
As an example:-
Ramsgate to Gatwick or Stansted is approximately 1hr30 drive, plus some time to park up and get to the Terminal.
Reasonable?
To encourage passengers to use Manston I would assume that we're all agreed that Manston has to offer something the above two don't.
Reasonable?
What can Manston offer that the others can't?
I guess some people on here would say that you can park right next to the terminal.. Big deal!
I see.
So, what is the answer to attracting Pax?
As an example:-
Ramsgate to Gatwick or Stansted is approximately 1hr30 drive, plus some time to park up and get to the Terminal.
Reasonable?
To encourage passengers to use Manston I would assume that we're all agreed that Manston has to offer something the above two don't.
Reasonable?
What can Manston offer that the others can't?
I guess some people on here would say that you can park right next to the terminal.. Big deal!
I think it's fair to say that if the right destinations are offered at the right times and the right fares then pax will be attracted. If the fares are sufficiently competitive, they may even be attracted from outside the area.
The problem is that saying that is absurdly easy, delivering it in a commerciably viable manner is far less so - as EUjet discovered. And since I think you're trying to paint me into a corner where I don't fit, let me say that I've always been of the opinion that when it comes to passenger traffic, MSE is too far from London to be a London Airport, but close enough that London Airports like STN and LGW are a viable alternative.
So no, there's no easy answer.....
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In order to attract passengers you need potential passengers to trust you and to believe that they will get a good service from you. Read this:
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/436/EUjet_Report.pdf
82% of EUjet passengers were from Kent and they were left high and dry. I reckon just about everyone in Kent knows at least one person who was stuffed up by EUjet. That sort of experience leaves a bad taste i nthe mouth, and it will take Masnton many years to recover from the reputation it now has.
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/436/EUjet_Report.pdf
82% of EUjet passengers were from Kent and they were left high and dry. I reckon just about everyone in Kent knows at least one person who was stuffed up by EUjet. That sort of experience leaves a bad taste i nthe mouth, and it will take Masnton many years to recover from the reputation it now has.
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82% of EUjet passengers were from Kent and they were left high and dry. I reckon just about everyone in Kent knows at least one person who was stuffed up by EUjet. That sort of experience leaves a bad taste i nthe mouth, and it will take Masnton many years to recover from the reputation it now has.
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In order to attract passengers you need potential passengers to trust you and to believe that they will get a good service from you. Read this:
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/436/EUjet_Report.pdf
82% of EUjet passengers were from Kent and they were left high and dry. I reckon just about everyone in Kent knows at least one person who was stuffed up by EUjet. That sort of experience leaves a bad taste i nthe mouth, and it will take Masnton many years to recover from the reputation it now has.
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/436/EUjet_Report.pdf
82% of EUjet passengers were from Kent and they were left high and dry. I reckon just about everyone in Kent knows at least one person who was stuffed up by EUjet. That sort of experience leaves a bad taste i nthe mouth, and it will take Masnton many years to recover from the reputation it now has.
We all know someone who was stranded, but I also know lots of people who say that it was shame the thing collapsed as they had tried the service and been impressed. I also know people who say that it was a shame it collapsed but feel guilty that they didnt support it.
If an established operator began operations I think the confidence would return quickly, however if it was another start up it would be a different story.
Mdis
Good link to CAA report.
Interesting that only 1% of disgruntled pax state that they would be worried about using an unknown airline in future. I would have thought it would be much higher.
Mdis
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MDIS
I didn’t realise what I was letting myself in for when I posted on the Manston thread. I didn’t expect such a lengthy debate – but it’s good fun nonetheless.
I don’t understand why you keep quoting Southampton. What’s Southampton got to do with Manston? Apart from the fact that once upon a time there were no passenger flights from Southampton and now there are?
Southampton and the surrounding area have a bit more going for it than Ramsgate and its surrounding area.
I’m fairly confident that Joe Bloggs from Ramsgate is not going to pay £300 (which is probably the best part of a weeks wage in Thanet, to fly to Edinburgh.
Reference the quote from Infratil – what infrastructure?
What are you trying to say? I could be misreading your posts or perhaps I’m just not receptive enough – but I seem to be quite clear with my opinion that Manston will never expand its business and will not become a successful passenger airport because of its location.
All you seem to be saying is that it might expand, perhaps when there is an infrastructure (of what sort we don’t know), if the right airline arrives (don’t know whom), with the right aircraft (don’t know what type), to fly to the right places(possibly EDI, MAN etc), to charge the right prices(£300.00?????) and if it changes it’s name to Southampton!
So why is it that we’re in 2007, when the RAF left on 31st March 1999 it hasn’t happened yet? Answer – because it’s never going to!
Do you really think that the entire population of Kent are all booking flights thinking ‘if only we could fly from Manston’? I think not! I’ve just booked a flight to GVA from LGW for £70 return Inc taxes with BA – MSE won’t beat that….
Currently, there are no passengers keeping Manston in Business and they never will!
Andy S
You’re wrong – there is an easy answer
It’s a non-starter!
Any commercially astute airline will realise that and not bother
Harsh but I’m confident that’s the reality
Twitcher
I think, from the tone of your post, you’re of the opinion that an airline (or two) are on finals??!!!
Evidently from all of my posts – I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Manston simply cannot continue to operate as is for much longer. It’s far too big and it’s doing far too little…
I didn’t realise what I was letting myself in for when I posted on the Manston thread. I didn’t expect such a lengthy debate – but it’s good fun nonetheless.
I don’t understand why you keep quoting Southampton. What’s Southampton got to do with Manston? Apart from the fact that once upon a time there were no passenger flights from Southampton and now there are?
Southampton and the surrounding area have a bit more going for it than Ramsgate and its surrounding area.
I’m fairly confident that Joe Bloggs from Ramsgate is not going to pay £300 (which is probably the best part of a weeks wage in Thanet, to fly to Edinburgh.
Reference the quote from Infratil – what infrastructure?
What are you trying to say? I could be misreading your posts or perhaps I’m just not receptive enough – but I seem to be quite clear with my opinion that Manston will never expand its business and will not become a successful passenger airport because of its location.
All you seem to be saying is that it might expand, perhaps when there is an infrastructure (of what sort we don’t know), if the right airline arrives (don’t know whom), with the right aircraft (don’t know what type), to fly to the right places(possibly EDI, MAN etc), to charge the right prices(£300.00?????) and if it changes it’s name to Southampton!
So why is it that we’re in 2007, when the RAF left on 31st March 1999 it hasn’t happened yet? Answer – because it’s never going to!
Do you really think that the entire population of Kent are all booking flights thinking ‘if only we could fly from Manston’? I think not! I’ve just booked a flight to GVA from LGW for £70 return Inc taxes with BA – MSE won’t beat that….
Currently, there are no passengers keeping Manston in Business and they never will!
Andy S
You’re wrong – there is an easy answer
It’s a non-starter!
Any commercially astute airline will realise that and not bother
Harsh but I’m confident that’s the reality
Twitcher
I think, from the tone of your post, you’re of the opinion that an airline (or two) are on finals??!!!
Evidently from all of my posts – I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Manston simply cannot continue to operate as is for much longer. It’s far too big and it’s doing far too little…
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The onlky reason I keep mentioning SOU is because I witnessed its growth from leaking hangar to new terminalto successful regional airport. I agree with your comment about the difference between Southampton and Thanet but you need to consider Canterbury, Ashford and Maidstone as well as the rest of Kent.
The infrastructure I was talking about was the repair to the runway ends, the replacement radar the new electrical supply, the new lighting etc.
I am not saying that Joe Bloggs will pay £300, what I am doing is throwing some questions into the forum to get some other viewpoints which is working.
People in Kent will fly from Manston it is quicker once you are at the airport and its quicker when you return.
I dont think Twitcher is saying anything is imminent.
MDIS
The infrastructure I was talking about was the repair to the runway ends, the replacement radar the new electrical supply, the new lighting etc.
I am not saying that Joe Bloggs will pay £300, what I am doing is throwing some questions into the forum to get some other viewpoints which is working.
People in Kent will fly from Manston it is quicker once you are at the airport and its quicker when you return.
I dont think Twitcher is saying anything is imminent.
MDIS
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I think you're wrong
What's quicker about Manston? If you have to check-in 90minutes before scheduled time of departure then there's no advantage.... Check-in time is check-in time...
I can't imagine many people will think let's drive to Manston and save ourselves 20 minutes between the car park and the terminal.
If it was ever going to happen - it would have happened by now..
If Manston was to completely close down tomorrow - it would make no difference.. Passengers aren't queuing to fly from Manston and Operators aren’t queuing up to get in.
EuJet ceasing operations has had no major impact apart from on the people who lost their jobs and I would not wish that on anyone.
We need to be realistic about Manston and as I said before, no commercially astute (successful) business person is going to send one of his aircraft down to Manston to start operating scheduled flights to MAN or EDI.
It’s not happening chaps
What's quicker about Manston? If you have to check-in 90minutes before scheduled time of departure then there's no advantage.... Check-in time is check-in time...
I can't imagine many people will think let's drive to Manston and save ourselves 20 minutes between the car park and the terminal.
If it was ever going to happen - it would have happened by now..
If Manston was to completely close down tomorrow - it would make no difference.. Passengers aren't queuing to fly from Manston and Operators aren’t queuing up to get in.
EuJet ceasing operations has had no major impact apart from on the people who lost their jobs and I would not wish that on anyone.
We need to be realistic about Manston and as I said before, no commercially astute (successful) business person is going to send one of his aircraft down to Manston to start operating scheduled flights to MAN or EDI.
It’s not happening chaps
Last edited by Xavier Dosh; 9th Jan 2007 at 09:23.
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Just thought I'd throw my two pennies worth into the debate....
Well LCY has a 20 or 30 minute check-in, being a smaller airport I guess Manston would match this? Infact when EUJet were flying I'm sure this was the case?
Now at the time of EUJet's operation I used them on many occasions. Now I also lived 65 miles from Manston, which was a good 20-30 miles further than Gatwick or Stansted but door to door took me a lot quicker! I would get off the plane at Manston and my bag was there on the carousel, my car outside in less than 5 minutes and that’s no joke. I chose Manston for this reason so I guess I'm one person that thought this was a good idea. Well not only me but friends who lived 20 minutes from Stansted in north east London raved about the airport and used EUJet for this reason too! I like many can't bare the big London airports which have become a version of "Lakeside shopping centre vs some check-in desks" not my idea of fun.
I know it's not huge but are you aware of the charters to Palma, Alicante and Faro this Summer??? 3 737's a week not forgetting the weekly Monarch flight to Norfolk (Virginia that is) with an A330 or poss 763??? OK, four flights a week but I guess that's something happening over 2006, but I’m not sure it will pay the bills.
Lets stay possitive on here and stop covering the same ground again and again.
What's quicker about Manston? If you have to check-in 90minutes before scheduled time of departure then there's no advantage.... Check-in time is check-in time...
I can't imagine many people will think let's drive to Manston and save ourselves 20 minutes between the car park and the terminal.
It’s not happening chaps
Lets stay possitive on here and stop covering the same ground again and again.
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Pamann
Well said indeed
But you and your chums and the other 200,000 projected people still weren't enough to keep EuJet going...
As I said before, Check-in time is CHeck-in time and it's the same at most airports. So, the only time saving would be in the car park.
I'm all in favour of the flights to Alicante etc - In fact I'm all in favour of any flight from Manston.
But, I just don't see the huge numbers of passengers using MSE that MDIS and the others do. MSE needs far more than EuJet or the proposed flights to Spain this year. Hence my suggustion in an earlier post that it might be more practical and prfitable to run the airport if it were smaller.
I would suspect that your friends who live 20 minutes from Stansted but drove to Manston could be in the minority there!
I'm positive but realistic, that's all. Most of the comments about expansion are generally based on hearsay or speculation. Or even some electrical work that may have been done at the airport... You do tend to clutch at straws slightly chaps
I think we had just better agree to disagree becuase I'm not going to be convinced otherwise....
All the best
XD
Well said indeed
But you and your chums and the other 200,000 projected people still weren't enough to keep EuJet going...
As I said before, Check-in time is CHeck-in time and it's the same at most airports. So, the only time saving would be in the car park.
I'm all in favour of the flights to Alicante etc - In fact I'm all in favour of any flight from Manston.
But, I just don't see the huge numbers of passengers using MSE that MDIS and the others do. MSE needs far more than EuJet or the proposed flights to Spain this year. Hence my suggustion in an earlier post that it might be more practical and prfitable to run the airport if it were smaller.
I would suspect that your friends who live 20 minutes from Stansted but drove to Manston could be in the minority there!
I'm positive but realistic, that's all. Most of the comments about expansion are generally based on hearsay or speculation. Or even some electrical work that may have been done at the airport... You do tend to clutch at straws slightly chaps
I think we had just better agree to disagree becuase I'm not going to be convinced otherwise....
All the best
XD
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XD
So that we're are not accused of going over old ground would you mind reading the whole thread re who failed Eujet, planestation or both.
Check in time is not check in time. Easyjet state that check in closes 40 minutes prior to departure at LGW. They may open 2 hours prior but that is not the latest. However if you turn up at LCY with 40 mins to get through security you can probably make the flight. At LGW you dont have a prayer of making it. (thats from recent experience)
I do agree that MSE would be more profitable if it were smaller but the minimum staffing would be the same. Obviously there would be savings on rates and maintenance but I wouldnt think they would be huge.
Agreeing to disagree is the best way forward, but I like the fat that you are optimistic and realistic; a steadying influence on this thread.
Mdis
So that we're are not accused of going over old ground would you mind reading the whole thread re who failed Eujet, planestation or both.
Check in time is not check in time. Easyjet state that check in closes 40 minutes prior to departure at LGW. They may open 2 hours prior but that is not the latest. However if you turn up at LCY with 40 mins to get through security you can probably make the flight. At LGW you dont have a prayer of making it. (thats from recent experience)
I do agree that MSE would be more profitable if it were smaller but the minimum staffing would be the same. Obviously there would be savings on rates and maintenance but I wouldnt think they would be huge.
Agreeing to disagree is the best way forward, but I like the fat that you are optimistic and realistic; a steadying influence on this thread.
Mdis
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EgyptAir Cargo resumes next Sunday, after the Xmas break
MK going to daily flight
New cargo apron marked out; just need to agree contractor
BMed rumour looking good
.
Talks on pax routes are ongoing. Many airlines are interested, but both parties have to agree. Ryanair's proposal was rejected by Infratil, and other companies continue to talk. Please, let's stop hearing this nonsense about passenger routes not being viable: it's so boring.
MK going to daily flight
New cargo apron marked out; just need to agree contractor
BMed rumour looking good
.
Talks on pax routes are ongoing. Many airlines are interested, but both parties have to agree. Ryanair's proposal was rejected by Infratil, and other companies continue to talk. Please, let's stop hearing this nonsense about passenger routes not being viable: it's so boring.
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So that history doesn't get re-written, a few facts distilled from the CAA....
In 11 months of ops, approx 150,000 people made return trips with EUjet at MSE.
Load factor difficult to be precise, but generally about 38.5%.
Knowledge of principles of lo-co, plus load factor, plus massive promotional givaways, plus dummy runs on booking engine to gauge prices, makes it fairly obvious that the seats were largely a giveaway, hence the massive losses.
EUjet did OK at Shannon, badly at Manston.
EUjet isn't a guide to demand, just a demonstration that lo-co is no-go at MSE.....
Seguro-
Seguro in 2006 is a better guide, although statements on this board hint that airport charges for the airline may be low or non-existent, perhaps reducing ticket prices somewhat. Nonetheless, their booking engine suggests that they are at least having a stab at realistic charges.
CAA stats again...
In 2006, approx 2000 people made return trips to Faro with Seguro, approx 50% loading.
Barcelona - approx 750 people. Route now dropped.
These are traditionally popular destinations.
Bearing in mind that this is before the govt. start ramping aviation tax, and before any competition from Lydd, I do not find this a promising performance.
Seguro routes in 2007.....
These are VERY popular routes.
Personally, if every A/C isn't full to bursting, I reckon Manston's passenger prospects are even worse than I currently believe.
.
.
In 11 months of ops, approx 150,000 people made return trips with EUjet at MSE.
Load factor difficult to be precise, but generally about 38.5%.
Knowledge of principles of lo-co, plus load factor, plus massive promotional givaways, plus dummy runs on booking engine to gauge prices, makes it fairly obvious that the seats were largely a giveaway, hence the massive losses.
EUjet did OK at Shannon, badly at Manston.
EUjet isn't a guide to demand, just a demonstration that lo-co is no-go at MSE.....
Seguro-
Seguro in 2006 is a better guide, although statements on this board hint that airport charges for the airline may be low or non-existent, perhaps reducing ticket prices somewhat. Nonetheless, their booking engine suggests that they are at least having a stab at realistic charges.
CAA stats again...
In 2006, approx 2000 people made return trips to Faro with Seguro, approx 50% loading.
Barcelona - approx 750 people. Route now dropped.
These are traditionally popular destinations.
Bearing in mind that this is before the govt. start ramping aviation tax, and before any competition from Lydd, I do not find this a promising performance.
Seguro routes in 2007.....
These are VERY popular routes.
Personally, if every A/C isn't full to bursting, I reckon Manston's passenger prospects are even worse than I currently believe.
.
.
Last edited by deedave; 10th Jan 2007 at 08:04.
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Mse Lo Co
EUjet isn't a guide to demand, just a demonstration that lo-co is no-go at MSE.....
I disagree that Lo-co is a no-go at MSE.
The brand was unknown, so people booked the usual airlines that they know. IF Ryanair did MSE I am confident that it would have been a success. As FR have a captive audience,many if not most consult FR website when looking for (a low fare) a flight .
As for Eujet doing well at SNN that would not be hard for them given they only had a few flights per week, mainly to Malaga, and Faro. 2 destinations that do very well from most airports in Ireland and UK.
I look forward to the day that manston is a success for the travelling public and I am confident that when it happens it will be with the help of one of the big LO-Cos . I couldnt see any full service carriers going in there pre the airport get established.
I disagree that Lo-co is a no-go at MSE.
The brand was unknown, so people booked the usual airlines that they know. IF Ryanair did MSE I am confident that it would have been a success. As FR have a captive audience,many if not most consult FR website when looking for (a low fare) a flight .
As for Eujet doing well at SNN that would not be hard for them given they only had a few flights per week, mainly to Malaga, and Faro. 2 destinations that do very well from most airports in Ireland and UK.
I look forward to the day that manston is a success for the travelling public and I am confident that when it happens it will be with the help of one of the big LO-Cos . I couldnt see any full service carriers going in there pre the airport get established.
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I’ve been reading the circular debate in this thread with interest, and thought I’d throw my sixpence in. I believe there is potential for pax ops at MSE, however whether or not this is enough for the airport to survive is another matter.
I would dispute deedave’s figures as being a misrepresentation of the Seguro routes – the actual LF for FAO was 63-65%, not around 50% as he suggests. BCN at 20% did perform poorly, but there are other factors to consider.
Firstly, BCN was for the Costa Brava. Anyone familiar with the package holiday market would know that the Costa Brava has been in terminal decline for a few years now, and has been dropped by some high-profile operators. The route was probably chosen in the first place simply by virtue of the fact that the aircraft had to originate there. Even so, the loads were poor, but the diabolical flight times surely contributed. These were improved but then changed a third time to go via PIK, making them arguably worse than they were originally.
Secondly, the programme was announced relatively late. This would probably explain the poorest performances being in July and August – many would wish to avoid travel during those months, and many that would travel would quite probably have already made plans. FAO performed quite strongly in June and September, October was reasonable and the first flight in May nearly full. As Dave also notes (in a round-about way) there didn’t appear to be too much discounting going on.
Its worth noting the Italian flights did rather well, and there is an extra one in the programme for 07.
I have every confidence the new (sun) routes will do well. Norfolk remains to be seen. I’m pretty surprised there is nothing to Jersey, or Malaga.
Another problem could be the rate at which operations develop – it could be over a long time-frame and the question would be are the owners patient enough? My hunch is yes, so long as freight ops develop as they intend.
Given the demographics of the surrounding area, I’m sure that Turkey and Bulgaria (ie cheap) would be winners, and in Balkan and Goldtrail there are suitable companies with ops from many UK regional airports and an existing relationship with Infratil. However, it seems unlikely there would be any developments before summer 08, a long way off. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Seguro expand, TFS a possible for winter 07 and maybe MAH or ACE in 08. Various other Med destinations could work/happen, and maybe a winter ski flight or two.
The final problem I see, and someone else has touched on this, is who exactly could operate scheduled routes? There are routes I feel would be viable – AMS, DUB, EDI and MAN. If FR couldn’t make HUY work, I don’t see much prospect of them coming to town in the foreseeable future. Flybe? More likely due to smaller a/c, but I can’t see them basing at MSE. Perhaps they would op 1 daily from another base like EDI or GLA but I wouldn’t be too confident of it happening. Arann to DUB? Most suitable in terms of a/c, but they haven’t exactly rushed to get in so far. The best bet would be for someone to start one up especially with an F50 or two!
So, in conclusion, its not all doom and gloom in terms of pax potential in my opinion, but whether or not the potential will ever come to fruition depends upon overcoming various obstacles, other areas of the business being successful and the pax ops ultimately being enough to be economically viable.
I look forward to your responses!
I would dispute deedave’s figures as being a misrepresentation of the Seguro routes – the actual LF for FAO was 63-65%, not around 50% as he suggests. BCN at 20% did perform poorly, but there are other factors to consider.
Firstly, BCN was for the Costa Brava. Anyone familiar with the package holiday market would know that the Costa Brava has been in terminal decline for a few years now, and has been dropped by some high-profile operators. The route was probably chosen in the first place simply by virtue of the fact that the aircraft had to originate there. Even so, the loads were poor, but the diabolical flight times surely contributed. These were improved but then changed a third time to go via PIK, making them arguably worse than they were originally.
Secondly, the programme was announced relatively late. This would probably explain the poorest performances being in July and August – many would wish to avoid travel during those months, and many that would travel would quite probably have already made plans. FAO performed quite strongly in June and September, October was reasonable and the first flight in May nearly full. As Dave also notes (in a round-about way) there didn’t appear to be too much discounting going on.
Its worth noting the Italian flights did rather well, and there is an extra one in the programme for 07.
I have every confidence the new (sun) routes will do well. Norfolk remains to be seen. I’m pretty surprised there is nothing to Jersey, or Malaga.
Another problem could be the rate at which operations develop – it could be over a long time-frame and the question would be are the owners patient enough? My hunch is yes, so long as freight ops develop as they intend.
Given the demographics of the surrounding area, I’m sure that Turkey and Bulgaria (ie cheap) would be winners, and in Balkan and Goldtrail there are suitable companies with ops from many UK regional airports and an existing relationship with Infratil. However, it seems unlikely there would be any developments before summer 08, a long way off. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Seguro expand, TFS a possible for winter 07 and maybe MAH or ACE in 08. Various other Med destinations could work/happen, and maybe a winter ski flight or two.
The final problem I see, and someone else has touched on this, is who exactly could operate scheduled routes? There are routes I feel would be viable – AMS, DUB, EDI and MAN. If FR couldn’t make HUY work, I don’t see much prospect of them coming to town in the foreseeable future. Flybe? More likely due to smaller a/c, but I can’t see them basing at MSE. Perhaps they would op 1 daily from another base like EDI or GLA but I wouldn’t be too confident of it happening. Arann to DUB? Most suitable in terms of a/c, but they haven’t exactly rushed to get in so far. The best bet would be for someone to start one up especially with an F50 or two!
So, in conclusion, its not all doom and gloom in terms of pax potential in my opinion, but whether or not the potential will ever come to fruition depends upon overcoming various obstacles, other areas of the business being successful and the pax ops ultimately being enough to be economically viable.
I look forward to your responses!
I disagree. EUjet were known in the area. They advertised in the regional press and on television, and a couple of hundred thousand passengers subsequently flew with them. I believe they even sponsored an airshow.
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