Accidents and Close Calls Discussion on accidents, close calls, and other unplanned aviation events, so we can learn from them, and be better pilots ourselves.

Nepal Plane Crash

Old 17th Jan 2023, 01:52
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
I'm struggling to work out from Simon's conclusion about the videos whether he actually thinks they are fake or genuine:



Make of that what you will.
That would mean he has removed the rest - as it also stated that both were fake (there was apparently a fake video showing the aircraft bank right with an engine fire) - which obviously was fake.

As someone above said, I don’t get the logic of the fact he stated that because you couldn’t see the pitch up, from a camera inside the plane with no reference points, that it was fake.


Hopefully now the BBC and Guardian have confirmed with the families that it was real, This whole “Real not real” is put to bed.


The most scary thing for me is that people are so accustomed to fakes now and such is the levels of complexity to them, that people literally cannot tell what is real and what isn’t - that is alarming.


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Old 17th Jan 2023, 02:38
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by vilas
But who will point it out through the window. The person holding the phone surely will take some support and not keep holding it unless it got stuck in the window.
- It's a phone - it can face its camera(s) 360o - if dropped and not switched off it will video whatever it's pointing at until it is stopped for some reason. The video is real and it isn't hard to understand why it captured the images it did before the crash, during the crash and immediately afterwards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-64287331
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 03:22
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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After fiddling around with Google Earth a bit, yes they appear to have been right over the end of RWY 22, or just E of it. The view out the window can be reproduced exactly on Google Earth from approximately that position. But is that the correct approach to 12 anyway?
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 04:38
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Originally Posted by golson41
Based on helicopter video of the scene, looks like below is where the crash site is.

GPS Coordinates = 28.197723 83.985007
(Right near the Pokhara Christian Graveyard)

Seems pretty convincing that they were in line to land at the wrong airport.
They were too high over turning at Bhadrakali Temple to be planning on landing on the old runway.
When they pass by the Stadium, they should be almost wheels down to be landing on the old runway - but they are a few hundred feet up.
Almost certainly they were doing a circuit and this was the final turn to align with the new runway from the East side.
That final turn lines up with the GPS coordinates of that graveyard.

I suspect that final turn began somewhere around here : 28.202429, 83.982925
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 04:57
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Originally Posted by RiSq
That would mean he has removed the rest - as it also stated that both were fake (there was apparently a fake video showing the aircraft bank right with an engine fire) - which obviously was fake.
This one?
Not fake, just out of context.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 05:00
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MissChief
Poor piloting in all probability. The FDR and CVR should answer the questions and theories here. Best now to wait, but not to forget. After all, Pokhara is not Buffalo. It is an insignificant Nepalese city in most Westerners' eyes.
One wonders how many Nepali eyes would see Buffalo as a significant city.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 05:25
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aox
Given the rough track that some folks have deduced from landmarks in the video, and the height, it seems likely that this was similar to earlier reported flight(s?) with circuit to the north of the new airport, base leg coincidentally approximately on a line of the old runway, 90 degree left turn to line up on 12 (new)
First sensible comment I have seen on the wrong airport/runway speculation. Base to final turn, possibly went through the centreline and then tried to force the aircraft around too quickly. Bottom rudder, touch of opposite aileron and a hard pitch to keep the nose up, classic skidding turn with high AoA, predictable results. Also looks like first stage flap only, reinforcing the assumption of a base to final turn.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 05:29
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by golson41
Based on helicopter video of the scene, looks like below is where the crash site is.

GPS Coordinates = 28.197723 83.985007
(Right near the Pokhara Christian Graveyard)

Seems pretty convincing that they were in line to land at the wrong airport. The new airport opened 2 weeks ago. ATC said the plane was landing from the wrong direction. And the path based on the passenger phone video has them in line with old runway. Probably LATE in their landing sequence they realized this, and decided to redirect to the new airport. But they were too low, and speed too slow, and they were probably too busy/distracted with the change on the plan, and the VERY hard left turn they needed to make. All added up to the stall and crash.

Scary that the almost exact same thing killed the co-pilot's husband years earlier. I'm sure it's likely Anju the co-pilot was at the controls.

Are there any regulations in the US if you are need to change runways or are missing your landing path, when you need to abort and go around?
Please check my post above with map , the plane path approximated from the video , this does not look like going for the old runway at all , they look like lining up for the changed runway , with some heavy turns involved .
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 07:30
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Originally Posted by rmac2
First sensible comment I have seen on the wrong airport/runway speculation. Base to final turn, possibly went through the centreline and then tried to force the aircraft around too quickly. Bottom rudder, touch of opposite aileron and a hard pitch to keep the nose up, classic skidding turn with high AoA, predictable results. Also looks like first stage flap only, reinforcing the assumption of a base to final turn.
In the two stills shown in comment #71 it looks to me as if there were two different flap settings with the later one greater, which is consistent with something resembling a normal approach.

Dropping a wing is consistent with a stall but why? Did the turn cause the stall? Seems unlikely if it was business as usual in the cabin up to the last second of losing control because how do you get into an accelerated stall with so little fuss among passengers? There would be some alarm I would think even if this approach is the mega version of flying into McCarran.

Did a wing stall first for some reason (asymmetric thrust, control surfaces) and that cause the turn?

Or was it not a stall and instead CFIT or inadvertent loss of control or cockpit chaos resulting in flying a perfectly airworthy craft into the ground? US Bangla 211?

I'm leaning toward an airworthy plane was just flown into the ground but who knows and I don't. We'll find out though.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 08:04
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Originally Posted by michaelbinary
If that video is real. then
1s you can see plane passing Pokhara football stadium
2s far field is the cricket ground with the centre pitch covered, the near field is the anapurna skate park
3-7s you can see the left wing tip drop to enter a left turn.
7+s the road from bottom to top of the screen with the kink in it, puts the plane about 300ft altitude over and approx halfway down the old airfield runway.
this is approx 2K from the threshold of runway 12 of the new airport and requires an immediate steep 90 degree left turn, which the plane didnt make.
They werent landing at the wrong airfield, they were already over it at about 300 feet heading towards the new airfield

I already said this about 5 pages ago.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 09:10
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rmac2
First sensible comment I have seen on the wrong airport/runway speculation. Base to final turn, possibly went through the centreline and then tried to force the aircraft around too quickly. Bottom rudder, touch of opposite aileron and a hard pitch to keep the nose up, classic skidding turn with high AoA, predictable results. Also looks like first stage flap only, reinforcing the assumption of a base to final turn.
So in this situation was a 270 right out of the question - too low/terrain/traffic?
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 09:29
  #172 (permalink)  
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Amazing last few pages to read, it used to be here instant investigations using FR24, now it is instant investigation by facebook videos. Whether the video is real of fake, it does not matter much as it will not reveal what happened ,only the FDR and CVR may. And as they look in good condition, hopefully they can be read, not in Nepal as it does not have the facilities, most probably by the BEA or NTSB which will ensure a good analysis.
When I read here: poor piloting, wrong airport, wrong runway, etc..all speculations that are not supported by any evidence, at all, and taken and used as facts by the next uniformed poster it starts to look like a witch hunt.
A bit of respect for the Pilots' families please.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 09:45
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Originally Posted by ifylofd
Not sure if any footage has identified one or the other props feathered (?) or engine failure, but could not the end event / disaster be the result of an engine failure event on approach that was not handled IAW operator / manufacturer guidelines? (leading to an aerodynamic stall / CFIT)

There appears to be much speculation, but what we have seen may be the consequences of an event moments before the footage (that is widely available) commences.
It *could*. We simply don't know what occurred before the footage commenced. There's a possibility there was a noise or other anomaly that prompted the passenger to start recording?
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 09:49
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Originally Posted by michaelbinary
They werent landing at the wrong airfield, they were already over it at about 300 feet heading towards the new airfield

I already said this about 5 pages ago.
But, before that they were heading basically straight towards it. It's possible that one or other has brain fade and configured the plane for landing at the old airport while the other was preparing to turn and land at the new airport. It's easily done - how many times have you moved house and ended up driving to the old one, maybe weeks later?

By the time such an error was realised it might be too late to correct it. The difference in seniority may also have led to a delay. Only a theory, but in the absence of a concrete cause it cant be discounted and it doesn't appear to be mech failure.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 09:52
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
When I read here : poor piloting , wrong airport, wrong runway , etc..all speculations that are not supported by any evidence, at all and taken and used as facts by the next uniformed poster it sarts to look like a witch hunt.
A bit of respect for the Pilots families please,
Evidence thus far is suggesting it wasn't a mechanical issue. We know it wasn't terrorism. It is therefore most likely an operational issue.



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Old 17th Jan 2023, 10:04
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You have no evidence to suggest it wasnt a mechanical issue at all. NONE, and there is no evidence yet to suggest it was either.

They were heading to the old airfield because it just happens to be under the left hand circuit required to line up with 12 of the new airport. (assuming a left hand circuit)
Thats why they were at 300-400 feet overhead the old runway starting to make a left turn to line up with 12. Trouble is they were only 1.5 - 2K from the 12 threshold so very close in, and trying to make a tight 90 degree turn at reasonably low speed and as we all saw it didnt end well.

Last edited by michaelbinary; 17th Jan 2023 at 11:38.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 10:08
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I am not a Pilot, Professional or Amateur; my only experience was in learning to fly a Glider, very many years ago. My Brother-in-Law is a very experienced (perhaps somewhat arrogant) Airline Pilot of many years experience, we talk a lot about about his job and experiences.

I have spent my entire working life in Change Management, Acceptance Testing and Training. I regularly carry out and learn a lot from Scenario Analysis.

I unhesitatingly applaud those who “speculate” on the causes of accidents; sometimes assuming the obvious or waiting for the conclusions of an investigation waste a valuable “learning opportunity”.

Keep it up people, even an outsider like me can learn from Human Factors and analysis
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 10:14
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Originally Posted by WingMen
They were too high over turning at Bhadrakali Temple to be planning on landing on the old runway.
When they pass by the Stadium, they should be almost wheels down to be landing on the old runway - but they are a few hundred feet up.
Almost certainly they were doing a circuit and this was the final turn to align with the new runway from the East side.
That final turn lines up with the GPS coordinates of that graveyard.
The wheels were down, suggesting they were configured to land.
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Old 17th Jan 2023, 10:32
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Originally Posted by michaelbinary
You have no evidence to suggest it wasnt a mechanical issue at all. NONE, and there is no evidence yet to suggest it was either.

They were heading to the old airfield because it just happens to be under the left hand circuit required to line up with 21 of the new airport. (assuming a left hand circuit)
Thats why they were at 300-400 feet overhead the old runway starting to make a left turn to line up with 21. Trouble is they were only 1.5 - 2K from the 21 threshold so very close in, and trying to make a tight 90 degree turn at reasonably low speed and as we all saw it didnt end well.
Occams razor. It is possible there was some sort of mechanical anomaly, but it's not apparent in either of the videos and no sense of emergency on board.

The fact the wheels were down however, suggests they were planning to land. If the wheels were configured for a landing then it's likely the rest of the plane was too. If they were configured for a landing we have to ask ourselves where - the nearest airport is the old one and it seems they were lined up with it. If they thought they were landing at the new airport would they have the wheels down this early?

We also need to ask why they made such a sharp turn at a relatively slow speed. Again, it's possible it was a panic type reaction that led to this.

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Old 17th Jan 2023, 10:53
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Originally Posted by barrymung
The fact the wheels were down however, suggests they were planning to land. If the wheels were configured for a landing then it's likely the rest of the plane was too. If they were configured for a landing we have to ask ourselves where - the nearest airport is the old one and it seems they were lined up with it. If they thought they were landing at the new airport would they have the wheels down this early?
The new runway is less than 2 kilometres from the old runway, when do you suggest they should put the wheels down?
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