I am not a Pilot, Professional or Amateur; my only experience was in learning to fly a Glider, very many years ago. My Brother-in-Law is a very experienced (perhaps somewhat arrogant) Airline Pilot of many years experience, we talk a lot about about his job and experiences.
I have spent my entire working life in Change Management, Acceptance Testing and Training. I regularly carry out and learn a lot from Scenario Analysis.
I unhesitatingly applaud those who “
speculate” on the causes of accidents; sometimes assuming the obvious or waiting for the conclusions of an investigation waste a valuable “
learning opportunity”.
Keep it up people, even an outsider like me can learn from Human Factors and analysis