Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Possibly this is a mis-reporting of a claim that location, speed and altitude could be derived from the pings by various analytical techniques.
One can imagine a scenario, where decompression did not occur, but comms and nav became permanently disabled and command authority in cockpit by design or circumstance was left to the autopilot. Then manual authority in the cockpit was eventually regained so there was manual input or control when it touched down/crashed in the sea.
In such a scenario, a very, very, very slim chance of the latter phase of the flight ending well enough that there are survivors currently languishing on escape slides that are not fitted with even an off the shelf $200 EPIRB.
In such a scenario, a very, very, very slim chance of the latter phase of the flight ending well enough that there are survivors currently languishing on escape slides that are not fitted with even an off the shelf $200 EPIRB.
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GPS Receiver inside Cell Phones/Smartphones
Many smartphones include GPS functionality, but this is usually disabled to conserve power.
Presumably, there is an "NSA" function allowing the operator to turn on the GPS of a cell phone on a network.
Separately, cell phones are automatically located (by triangulation among towers) whenever they join a network cell.
Presumably, there is an "NSA" function allowing the operator to turn on the GPS of a cell phone on a network.
Separately, cell phones are automatically located (by triangulation among towers) whenever they join a network cell.
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The US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorised to discuss the situation by name, said the Boeing 777-200 wasn’t transmitting data to the satellite, but was instead sending out a signal to establish contact.
Boeing offers a satellite service that can receive a stream of data during flight on how the aircraft is functioning and relay the information to the plane’s home base. The idea is to provide information before the plane lands on whether maintenance work or repairs are needed.
Malaysia Airlines didn’t subscribe to that service, but the plane still had the capability to connect with the satellite and was automatically sending pings, the official said.
Boeing offers a satellite service that can receive a stream of data during flight on how the aircraft is functioning and relay the information to the plane’s home base. The idea is to provide information before the plane lands on whether maintenance work or repairs are needed.
Malaysia Airlines didn’t subscribe to that service, but the plane still had the capability to connect with the satellite and was automatically sending pings, the official said.
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Meanwhile the Chinese May have another theory;
From MalaysiaKini ( behind a paywall so I've cut and pasted)
The search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 appears to be shifting back and forth between east and west of peninsula Malaysia, with latest information from scientists in China suggesting that the plane may have triggered a seismic event when it impacted the sea some 150km off the southern tip of Vietnam.
A team of seismologists at a top China research university said they detected a slight seismic event on the sea floor between Vietnam and Malaysia on March 8 which could be a result of an impact.
"It was a non-seismic zone, therefore judging from the time and location of the event, it might be related to the missing MH370 flight," said a statement posted on the University of Science and Technology of China website.
This was also reported by the South China Morning Post.
This comes as US officials begin to set their eyes in the Indian Ocean after almost a week of futile search in the South China Sea, citing indications that the plane may have turned around after losing communication and flown on westwards for several hours.
From MalaysiaKini ( behind a paywall so I've cut and pasted)
The search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 appears to be shifting back and forth between east and west of peninsula Malaysia, with latest information from scientists in China suggesting that the plane may have triggered a seismic event when it impacted the sea some 150km off the southern tip of Vietnam.
A team of seismologists at a top China research university said they detected a slight seismic event on the sea floor between Vietnam and Malaysia on March 8 which could be a result of an impact.
"It was a non-seismic zone, therefore judging from the time and location of the event, it might be related to the missing MH370 flight," said a statement posted on the University of Science and Technology of China website.
This was also reported by the South China Morning Post.
This comes as US officials begin to set their eyes in the Indian Ocean after almost a week of futile search in the South China Sea, citing indications that the plane may have turned around after losing communication and flown on westwards for several hours.
However it does not work when the cell phone moves at M.80.
I have evidence that it is definitely possible to receive "welcome to" text messages in the cruise at or above FL350 (remote part of the world, flying at more than M 0.80). No idea if a voice or text "out" would work and I'm not going to experiment.
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This might apply for stationary or slow moving vehicles. However it does not work when the cell phone moves at M.80. I know for a fact a GSM cell phone will not work in a jet at cruise speed and altitude even over an area with many cell phone towers in range. Just saying.
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Jimmy the con said:
"To suggest that the aircraft is currently holed up on a remote island is laughable."
I would suggest that a qualified pilot holding full back stick whilst attempting to recover from a stall...is even more laughable.
But it happened!
I figure you'll know what I'm talking about.
"To suggest that the aircraft is currently holed up on a remote island is laughable."
I would suggest that a qualified pilot holding full back stick whilst attempting to recover from a stall...is even more laughable.
But it happened!
I figure you'll know what I'm talking about.
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TCAS
I am SLF, so please forgive if question is dumb. I would like to know if TCAS screen images are recorded by flight data recorders , even though they may not trigger an alert? Is it possible that any aircraft in the region might have picked up TCAS data showing the Malaysian flight and it lies in their FDR ? I know this is clutching at straws, but at this point, we don't have much straw around.
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ELT!
The ELT (emergency locator transponder) not being detected suggests that:
1- Either the plane had crashed in such a remote location (I guess Indian Ocean?) that its signal is out of range.
1- Either the plane had crashed in such a remote location (I guess Indian Ocean?) that its signal is out of range.
Last edited by Heli-phile; 14th Mar 2014 at 08:12. Reason: fast fingered freddie syndrome
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Network providers don't like the high-speed cell transitions from flying mobile phones. Nor do the tower antennas broadcast strongly upwards. But there's no technical reason why a signal can't be obtained aloft.
The whispering WSJ "sources", which could be "imagination" can surely suggest where these 4-hours of supposed post-disappearance signaling came from.
Ground stations will have a signal strength measure, and if you look at the power pattern of a 100-m antenna in geostationary orbit, you'll see where it could have been swept up from by any Not widely-Reknowned Organization - about a 50 mile patch.
The whispering WSJ "sources", which could be "imagination" can surely suggest where these 4-hours of supposed post-disappearance signaling came from.
Ground stations will have a signal strength measure, and if you look at the power pattern of a 100-m antenna in geostationary orbit, you'll see where it could have been swept up from by any Not widely-Reknowned Organization - about a 50 mile patch.
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Jon Ostrower, Aerospace & Boeing beat reporter for The Wall Street Journal, is stating that the last ping from the missing aircraft to satellites was 5 hours after it went missing and was from over water.
He's holding firm to this claim. He says he does not know the exact location, but as that ping includes GPS, speed and alt data, he says there will be those that do know.
US is sending a ship to the Indian Ocean to search a very specific spot.
He's holding firm to this claim. He says he does not know the exact location, but as that ping includes GPS, speed and alt data, he says there will be those that do know.
US is sending a ship to the Indian Ocean to search a very specific spot.
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Based on the White House satellite data contribution to the discussion on the possible fate of the aircraft, perhaps deleted posts ( including my own) proposing a due west course ( ?intentionally) outside of radar coverage with a final demise in the mid or west Indian ocean ( to fuel range) might be reinstated as reasoned contributions to the discussion!.
If this search was easy to solve with conventional thinking given the existing deployed assists, it would have been.
The thesis is an intentional act by a well informed person/persons in sole control of the flight deck. The Egypt air accident of the US east coast would be a similar category event.
If this search was easy to solve with conventional thinking given the existing deployed assists, it would have been.
The thesis is an intentional act by a well informed person/persons in sole control of the flight deck. The Egypt air accident of the US east coast would be a similar category event.
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The thesis is an intentional act by a well informed person/persons in sole control of the flight deck. The Egypt air accident of the US east coast would be a similar category event.
Previous pilot suicides involving a simple nose dive have always been found out and published, invalidating any insurance claims the suicide was supposed to cause.
So, perhaps, just perhaps, the desperate person in this case tried to be cunning and take the plane somewhere it'll never be found, thus ensuring any insurance they took out pays up?
Just as valid a theory as all the others!
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Logical analysis of the MAS370/MH370 facts
To enable analysis of MAS370, we should just look at facts and completely disregard subjective reports.
- 9M-MRO disapeared from radar at 35000 feet, over waypoint IGARI, at 02:40 local time (Malaysian time).
- Transponder was switched off at that point
- Plane had full load of fuel for 8 hour flight + IFR reserves to PEK (Beijing).
- plane was flying at cruise speed (.82 Mach).
- plane satcom system was pinging INMARSAT, used for CPDLC/ACARS, for about 4 hours afterwards.
- 9M-MRO had no HFDL onboard (only Malaysian A380's have HFDL); it only carried VHF ACARS and SATCOM(CPDLC).
Analysis:
- If the transponder was switched off, it was to avoid detection;
- With transponder off, SSR (secondary Radar) goes off but primary radar can still detect 9M-MRO;
- At the point of transponder turning off, plane was 35000, at IGARI, equidistant between Vietnam and Malaysia. At that altitude its signal could be seen as far as 242 miles (theoretical limit - straight
line), well within Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand;
- If 9M-MRO was trying to avoid detection, it would have to descent fast to less than 5000 feet. Even at 5000 feet, signal could be heard at 86 miles, and at 1000 feet, 38 miles (theoretical maximums);
- The width of the sea channel between Vietnam and Malaysia is 220 miles, 110 miles each from IGARI. If the plane flew at or less than 5000 feet, it would avoid primary radar detection;, if it stayed in the center of the channel;
- at 5000 feet, maximum speed of a loaded 777 is around 280 KTIAS. If the plane emitted pings then it flew 280*4, not 480 * 4, a total of 1120 miles;
- To avoid detection, it would have to stay away from land, where primary radars are located. Primary radars are mainly military. It would thus NOT fly towards the Indian ocean, since doing so would place
the flight over Thailand and Myanmar and primary radars;
- If the intent was to fly towards the Andaman sea, a different flight would have to have been chosen. But between 22:00 and 01:00 (local), more than 16 flights leave Singapore and Kuala Lumpur headed for Europe, thus it would be very difficult to take over a 777 in the midst of so many flights, flying similar tracks to European Destinations, most of them within view of each other;
- The flight path from KUL towards PEK only has MAS370, ETD around midnight with the next flight towards similar destination succeded or preceeded more than 1 hour either way, thus no other flight would witness the event visually;
- 9M-MRO would fly over the sea, towards East and then veer Northeast;
- In order to avoid detection completely, passengers cellphones would have to be collected and turned off, all of them, or a cellphone jammer turned on. Even one cellphone left on would register onto a
network thus giving the location away. Flying at 5000 feet, means that there is a good chance that a cellphone would register onto a network, if 9M-MRO flew near an island with cellphone service;
- thus 9M-MRO would have to fly towards a remote island with no cellphone service and with a runway or area to land on water;
- US Airways flight that landed onto the Hudson river tells us that a 777 or 767 can land on water;
- there are literally thousands of islands in the area (http://goo.gl/maps/xYxJ8) and most of them disputed by many countries;
- at 06:40am (02:40 plus 4 hours), there is twilight and at 07:04 sunrise, therefore plenty of light;
To get additional facts, computers of the various suspect individuals onboard would have to be analyzed for any activity (browser history, software installed). Such data can give additional information on
where the plane may have been headed.
- The CARGO manifest would have to be released to see of there was material that could be a motive.
Whoever did this, did not realize the SATCOM system was pinging, thereby giving us a clue that the plane was flying for an additional 4 hours.
Time will tell.
- 9M-MRO disapeared from radar at 35000 feet, over waypoint IGARI, at 02:40 local time (Malaysian time).
- Transponder was switched off at that point
- Plane had full load of fuel for 8 hour flight + IFR reserves to PEK (Beijing).
- plane was flying at cruise speed (.82 Mach).
- plane satcom system was pinging INMARSAT, used for CPDLC/ACARS, for about 4 hours afterwards.
- 9M-MRO had no HFDL onboard (only Malaysian A380's have HFDL); it only carried VHF ACARS and SATCOM(CPDLC).
Analysis:
- If the transponder was switched off, it was to avoid detection;
- With transponder off, SSR (secondary Radar) goes off but primary radar can still detect 9M-MRO;
- At the point of transponder turning off, plane was 35000, at IGARI, equidistant between Vietnam and Malaysia. At that altitude its signal could be seen as far as 242 miles (theoretical limit - straight
line), well within Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand;
- If 9M-MRO was trying to avoid detection, it would have to descent fast to less than 5000 feet. Even at 5000 feet, signal could be heard at 86 miles, and at 1000 feet, 38 miles (theoretical maximums);
- The width of the sea channel between Vietnam and Malaysia is 220 miles, 110 miles each from IGARI. If the plane flew at or less than 5000 feet, it would avoid primary radar detection;, if it stayed in the center of the channel;
- at 5000 feet, maximum speed of a loaded 777 is around 280 KTIAS. If the plane emitted pings then it flew 280*4, not 480 * 4, a total of 1120 miles;
- To avoid detection, it would have to stay away from land, where primary radars are located. Primary radars are mainly military. It would thus NOT fly towards the Indian ocean, since doing so would place
the flight over Thailand and Myanmar and primary radars;
- If the intent was to fly towards the Andaman sea, a different flight would have to have been chosen. But between 22:00 and 01:00 (local), more than 16 flights leave Singapore and Kuala Lumpur headed for Europe, thus it would be very difficult to take over a 777 in the midst of so many flights, flying similar tracks to European Destinations, most of them within view of each other;
- The flight path from KUL towards PEK only has MAS370, ETD around midnight with the next flight towards similar destination succeded or preceeded more than 1 hour either way, thus no other flight would witness the event visually;
- 9M-MRO would fly over the sea, towards East and then veer Northeast;
- In order to avoid detection completely, passengers cellphones would have to be collected and turned off, all of them, or a cellphone jammer turned on. Even one cellphone left on would register onto a
network thus giving the location away. Flying at 5000 feet, means that there is a good chance that a cellphone would register onto a network, if 9M-MRO flew near an island with cellphone service;
- thus 9M-MRO would have to fly towards a remote island with no cellphone service and with a runway or area to land on water;
- US Airways flight that landed onto the Hudson river tells us that a 777 or 767 can land on water;
- there are literally thousands of islands in the area (http://goo.gl/maps/xYxJ8) and most of them disputed by many countries;
- at 06:40am (02:40 plus 4 hours), there is twilight and at 07:04 sunrise, therefore plenty of light;
To get additional facts, computers of the various suspect individuals onboard would have to be analyzed for any activity (browser history, software installed). Such data can give additional information on
where the plane may have been headed.
- The CARGO manifest would have to be released to see of there was material that could be a motive.
Whoever did this, did not realize the SATCOM system was pinging, thereby giving us a clue that the plane was flying for an additional 4 hours.
Time will tell.
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Originally Posted by wiggy
Quote:
if we ASSUME for a moment that, for example, racks E1-E4 at the MEC have been destroyed by a catastrophic event, with several electrical and other key system failures you'd have to be able to maintain trim and make pitch adjustments in a severely compromised cabin in terms pressurization.
Yep, that's why I'm struggling with the "MEC damaged,selectively and the aircraft flew for hours" scenario....
In fact I'm not really buying any mechanical/technical scenario I've heard so far ..I'm at a complete loss.
if we ASSUME for a moment that, for example, racks E1-E4 at the MEC have been destroyed by a catastrophic event, with several electrical and other key system failures you'd have to be able to maintain trim and make pitch adjustments in a severely compromised cabin in terms pressurization.
Yep, that's why I'm struggling with the "MEC damaged,selectively and the aircraft flew for hours" scenario....
In fact I'm not really buying any mechanical/technical scenario I've heard so far ..I'm at a complete loss.
Luckily the flight was on the ground and shut right engine down, and safely de-planed. Had this bus failire and subsequent MEC fire occured in flight at altitude the consequences could it seems have been catastrophic. Look at the pictures in the detailed investigation link at bottom .... seems easy to envision after the AC bus failure and fire began that it could lead to a burn thru and rapid depressurization.
In the interim the cockpit would likely have smoke, and some of all of the flight deck instruments, comms, transponder etc may have become inoperation.
I'm purely guessing that critical flight controls are on a separate bus with backup power and multiple redundancy
Could the radar sweeps from the predictive wind shear system installed in the weather radar have been picked up by anyone? The system is always emitting radar beams...the PWS cannot be switched off by the crew.
Pings
Previously reported: ACARS will store messages until it can establish contact.
It tries later by sending a ping. If there is no response it tries again later.
Previously reported: it tries every half hour.
Other communications devices will have different retry times - mostly much shorter. The airwaves will be full of pings on all digital frequencies but normally only the ones that establish contact by getting a response are then followed by data.
Service assets acknowledge pings addressed to them (thereby establishing the link) and service the ensuing data.
Surveillance assets potentially record the pings, any responses and any ensuing data.
It tries later by sending a ping. If there is no response it tries again later.
Previously reported: it tries every half hour.
Other communications devices will have different retry times - mostly much shorter. The airwaves will be full of pings on all digital frequencies but normally only the ones that establish contact by getting a response are then followed by data.
Service assets acknowledge pings addressed to them (thereby establishing the link) and service the ensuing data.
Surveillance assets potentially record the pings, any responses and any ensuing data.