To enable analysis of MAS370, we should just look at facts and completely disregard subjective reports.
- 9M-MRO disapeared from radar at 35000 feet, over waypoint IGARI, at 02:40 local time (Malaysian time).
- Transponder was switched off at that point
- Plane had full load of fuel for 8 hour flight + IFR reserves to PEK (Beijing).
- plane was flying at cruise speed (.82 Mach).
- plane satcom system was pinging INMARSAT, used for CPDLC/ACARS, for about 4 hours afterwards.
- 9M-MRO had no HFDL onboard (only Malaysian A380's have HFDL); it only carried VHF ACARS and SATCOM(CPDLC).
Analysis:
- If the transponder was switched off, it was to avoid detection;
- With transponder off, SSR (secondary Radar) goes off but primary radar can still detect 9M-MRO;
- At the point of transponder turning off, plane was 35000, at IGARI, equidistant between Vietnam and Malaysia. At that altitude its signal could be seen as far as 242 miles (theoretical limit - straight
line), well within Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand;
- If 9M-MRO was trying to avoid detection, it would have to descent fast to less than 5000 feet. Even at 5000 feet, signal could be heard at 86 miles, and at 1000 feet, 38 miles (theoretical maximums);
- The width of the sea channel between Vietnam and Malaysia is 220 miles, 110 miles each from IGARI. If the plane flew at or less than 5000 feet, it would avoid primary radar detection;, if it stayed in the center of the channel;
- at 5000 feet, maximum speed of a loaded 777 is around 280 KTIAS. If the plane emitted pings then it flew 280*4, not 480 * 4, a total of 1120 miles;
- To avoid detection, it would have to stay away from land, where primary radars are located. Primary radars are mainly military. It would thus NOT fly towards the Indian ocean, since doing so would place
the flight over Thailand and Myanmar and primary radars;
- If the intent was to fly towards the Andaman sea, a different flight would have to have been chosen. But between 22:00 and 01:00 (local), more than 16 flights leave Singapore and Kuala Lumpur headed for Europe, thus it would be very difficult to take over a 777 in the midst of so many flights, flying similar tracks to European Destinations, most of them within view of each other;
- The flight path from KUL towards PEK only has MAS370, ETD around midnight with the next flight towards similar destination succeded or preceeded more than 1 hour either way, thus no other flight would witness the event visually;
- 9M-MRO would fly over the sea, towards East and then veer Northeast;
- In order to avoid detection completely, passengers cellphones would have to be collected and turned off, all of them, or a cellphone jammer turned on. Even one cellphone left on would register onto a
network thus giving the location away. Flying at 5000 feet, means that there is a good chance that a cellphone would register onto a network, if 9M-MRO flew near an island with cellphone service;
- thus 9M-MRO would have to fly towards a remote island with no cellphone service and with a runway or area to land on water;
- US Airways flight that landed onto the Hudson river tells us that a 777 or 767 can land on water;
- there are literally thousands of islands in the area (
http://goo.gl/maps/xYxJ8) and most of them disputed by many countries;
- at 06:40am (02:40 plus 4 hours), there is twilight and at 07:04 sunrise, therefore plenty of light;
To get additional facts, computers of the various suspect individuals onboard would have to be analyzed for any activity (browser history, software installed). Such data can give additional information on
where the plane may have been headed.
- The CARGO manifest would have to be released to see of there was material that could be a motive.
Whoever did this, did not realize the SATCOM system was pinging, thereby giving us a clue that the plane was flying for an additional 4 hours.
Time will tell.