The ten year suspension of retirements, due to increased Compulsory Retirement Age, (CRA) ended n Oct 2016. I have no idea why any floodgate should open in 2017? It should already have started.

Lots of unpaid voluntary leave available apparently!

I suspect you know this but for those that don't I think what has happened is a significant number of the over 55s left ( voluntarily or forced due medicals etc) between the ages of 55-65, there wasn't the step change in the retirement rate last Autumn that some were expecting or even hoping for....Unless there's a massive change, for example in something like Pension Provison/legislation, or a sudden offer of Paid, voluntary retirement, I suspect the current rate of retirements will probably be typical for some time to come.

There is unpaid leave available on several fleets this summer. Mostly for F/Os.

According to the Balpa age demo-graphic figures there is a bit of a bulge of retirements forecast around 2020.

However, a large number of the top 1500 pilots are aged around 50. The real floodgates open in about 15-20 years, but who knows what will be left of BA by then.....

All this assumes every pilot working to 65 and no part time or expansion.

Company sources are saying a big tranche in 2019 AND 2020. However that's of little comfort to the guys trying to stay afloat into 2018. My personal opinion is that there'll be a large take up of the aspirational part time contracts. There's only one new 787 this year, it was always going to be quiet. Things will pick up again from next year, no need for alarm.

I think that all the numbers will change when NAPS is closed down in the next 2-3 years. Why would a late 50s Captain keep working if it's going to have no effect on his pension? I can see a huge number of retirements when the pension situation changes.

Ex wife(s) to pay for?

Flap62
Because they simply can't live without their perceived 'status'!

Cullin Hills

Anyone with an (more than one!) ex-wife, is likely to have a younger partner, and quite possibly a 'new' family too. - Expensive!

Very unlikely, pension changes will have any significant effect on retirements IMVHO!

I suspect it's v rarely status that alone delays retirements beyond 55 these days, it's more likely a conservative ( small 'c') approach to life. As you get older you find crystal balls aren't all they are cracked up to be and IMHO I think in this day and age you need to be a very careful voluntarily dumping yourself out of the job market with up to 10 more potential years to run.

NAPS ain't bad but it's not the be all and end all, especially for those who joined as DEPs and still have dependant kids . .. I think even a single pilot or those of us married only once, and still married look at the sums these days and go "ummm, do I really want to jettison another 10 years of income" when we don't know what interest rates, inflation etc are going to do.

Like you I don't think NAPS closure itself will be an issue, it's more likely to be another tweak in pensions legislation.

"Floodgates" of retirement are an illusion. With advancing age, the natural attrition smooths out the process. In the last 5-10 years of any pilot groups working life, a greater proportion will become medically unfit. Some will reduce their working footprint by such vehicles as part time working. A few will avail themselves of other opportunities. By the time that group reaches age 65 any projection of a " flood" or "bulge" is usually little more than a trickle.

Despite the perceived lure of retirement, for many people it focuses the mind on the limited timescale to achieve one final fiscal sprint. There is also the realisation that The job forces you to keep active, and for many that becomes an important motivator. Pilots at this end of their careers are also likely to be enjoying the best of the respective terms & conditions on offer, and would likely want to enjoy that for as long as possible.

When retirement was typically 55 it was more likely that a greater proportion of any given group would achieve that milestone. A retirement bulge (although still rare) was more conceivable. A decade of more gradual attrition simply provides for a much more gradual slope. Add to that improvements in maintaining medical certification standards, and the process becomes even smoother still.

In summary, retirements are a false hope. The real opportunities are going to come from economic growth.

I take the point that these things might smooth out bulges but retirement, decrease in medical fitness, part time options, they still all lead down one sure path: Recruitment.

"A rose by any other name"....

Rubbish. Early retirements will increase due to the extreme amount of flying current day pilots do. It's too much and the love is lost. I predict many pilots bailing out early on the career. The question is do they go for the part time option or leave all together. Part time has my vote. This is particularly apparent in BA. I often fly with captains who are part time, wanting it or close to giving up all together.

Good info thank you. Do you know if we have to wait till October for all the new part time request etc before any concrete news comes out or do BA know who wants what before?

Precisely why any pilots thinking of joining, should look very, very, very closely!

Yes because BA pilots work more hours for less money and worse T&C's then those of us at the Loco's.

Have to bite my tongue sometimes, but the above is simply ridiculous until the day there's an exodus of BA pilots back to the Loco's.

Those type of comments and/or views sound like they come from someone who has either never worked for RYR or completely forgotten what it's like, either way it's pretty naive to think someone doesn't know what they want having jumped through all the BA recruitment process hoops.

When's the last time HMRC audited a BA pilot?!

What VJW said.

I suspect there's as much/little whinging at BA as anywhere else, though some make more noise than others, and TBH I think a few of the previous posts have been motivated by (perhaps understandable) wishful thinking .

I personally don't see a rush to the door caused by "high flying hours" - in the cold light of day where are these individuals going to jump to? FR, the Gulf, Tescos, the Job Exchange? There is however considerable demand for part time.

FWIW it happens, certainly amongst those non resident in the UK.................................

Was there any substance to this in the end? As you say it would be nice to have a few of these rumours straightened out by the horse's mouth. Especially as they apparently aren't replying to people's emails.

Given the intention to get in touch was stated internally by one of the people responsible, I would hope it wouldn't be too long before you hear something.

Do you foresee BA LH commands coming down from the nearly double decades?

Presumably said person alluded to the situation and what might be written in this email?

As has been said before. There was a very significant spike in recruitment of cadets in the early 90s. These pilots will now be approaching 50 years of age, and already on the top pay scale. They almost exclusively occupy LHS LH. There are hundreds of them, and I wouldn't foresee them going anywhere, anytime soon.

Just as we move out of one period of 'stagnation', another is about to begin.

So I would guess around 2030 before much changes from what we see today? The chance at that time, of BA looking anything like it does now, is highly questionable.

We definitely have a surplus of pilots at the moment!