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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 21st Mar 2020, 19:56
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Originally Posted by crunchingnumbers View Post
Stage 1 - Nothing is going to happen
Stage 2 - Something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it
Stage 3 - Maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do
Stage 4 - Maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now

yep, that sounds about right

perhaps the next stage is
Stage 5 - standing by until the next "event", then return to Stage 1

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Old 21st Mar 2020, 20:27
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Originally Posted by Pilot DAR View Post
Honestly, 'cause it's work.
I used to moderate a forum so I can understand
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Old 21st Mar 2020, 22:03
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Originally Posted by homonculus View Post
3 After lockdown many of us will question business travel when we can avoid being treated like imbeciles in steel tubes. global warming will become an even bigger panic, and to be fair it will be because the scientists who will resolve it are locked down and lockdown will result in a massive population explosion which is the real cause. so demand for aviation will be weak.
Especially since a lot of businesses are working from home and using Skype and other such tools for their meetings. The longer this lasts the less chance of returning to what we currently see as normality as the emergency measures will have become normality.
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Old 21st Mar 2020, 22:39
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Originally Posted by midnight cruiser View Post
The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

The colossal collective blunder was to repeatedly turn a blind eye to the evil cauldron of mixing animal and human diseases in certain parts of the world. That done, the damage is going to be horrific, whichever path we take. The horse has bolted.
You could be right. The particular part of the world to which you might be alluding is a clear and present danger.
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Old 21st Mar 2020, 22:48
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Going back to the past

Working for a national carrier used to be a privilege whilst dignity was guaranteed through good working conditions and decent salaries. Same for working in a major hotel or at any airport. Working conditions used to be fair, work life balance was not even an issue. Generally speaking working was a pleasure and workers in the travel industry and hospitality were generally very happy. Aircrafts were rarely full as the price of an air ticket was affordable only by a minority. Flying was a pleasure, happy customers together with happy pilots and cabin crew. Happy ground staff, dispatchers etc basically a nice industry to be in. If this virus will mean going back to nationalization of carriers then I am happy. I will not miss the present race to the bottom where the newest airline workers are modern slaves, overworked, stressed and underpaid. It is time to reconsider the present model as capitalism has clearly gone too far. The real problem is not Covid19 in Italy. The real problem will be the rest of the world, e.g. Africa for a multitude of reasons but then also some of the richest Western countries like the USA where extreme capitalism has created a society on the edge and this virus will be the 1st real test and we will soon find out if such a greedy and unfair system can sustain a crisis of this magnitude within such a polarised society where the few very rich are surrounded by millions of very poor. An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
In 6 months only those helped by the governments will survive. All the rules of standard capitalism are out of the window since around 2 weeks ago.

Last edited by ILS27LEFT; 21st Mar 2020 at 23:15.
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Old 21st Mar 2020, 23:02
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Spot on ILS27LEFT
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Old 21st Mar 2020, 23:14
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Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT View Post
Working for a national carrier used to be a privilege whilst dignity was guaranteed through good working conditions and decent salaries. Same for working in a major hotel or at any airport. Working conditions used to be fair, work life balance was not even an issue. Generally speaking working was a pleasure and workers in the travel industry and hospitality were generally very happy. Aircrafts were rarely full as the price of an air ticket was affordable only by a minority. Flying was a pleasure, happy customers together with happy pilots and cabin crew. Happy ground staff, dispatchers etc basically a nice industry to be in. If this virus will mean going back to nationalization of carriers then I am happy. I will not miss the present race to the bottom where the newest airline workers are modern slaves, overworked, stressed and underpaid. It is time to reconsider the present model as capitalism has clearly gone too far. The real problem is not Covid19 in Italy. The real problem will be the rest of the world, e.g. Africa for a multitude of reasons but then also the richest Western countries like the USA where extreme capitalism has created a society on the edge and this virus will be the 1st real test and we will soon find out if such a greedy and unfair system can sustain a crisis of this magnitude within such a polarised society where the few very rich are surrounded by millions of very poor. An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
In 6 months only those helped by the governments will survive. All the rules of standard capitalism are out of the window since 2 weeks ago.
All so very true.
I would also like to add that in times past there wasn't "social media" AKA "self gratification" and the media was headed by editors who were well versed in art of journalism, not some Muppet incapable of stringing to words together.
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Old 21st Mar 2020, 23:20
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Originally Posted by crunchingnumbers View Post
Stage 1 - Nothing is going to happen
Stage 2 - Something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it
Stage 3 - Maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do
Stage 4 - Maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now

Thank you Humphrey - best darn series on the tele ever!
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 05:46
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Those who seem to think this virus is relatively innocuous should look at the live statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Those of us who are past "a certain age" are feeling VERY vulnerable.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 06:26
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It is time to reconsider the present model as capitalism has clearly gone too far. The real problem is not Covid19 in Italy. The real problem will be the rest of the world, e.g. Africa for a multitude of reasons but then also some of the richest Western countries like the USA where extreme capitalism
Sorry, but you are wrong on so many levels. The US does not have “extreme capitalism”. Bailing out industries that went heavily into debt by purchasing their own stock, is the opposite of capitalism. That is a form of socialism or fascism.

The problems in the airline industry, or pretty much most industries in the US, is that government has removed the moral hazard and risk. Bankruptcy protection, ”too big to fail” all that crap is NOT capitalism. And you don’t know what capitalism is if you believe otherwise.

Capitalism would let those businesses shut down and reorganize, and creative destruction, which is fundamental for capitalism and free markets to work, would result in better companies that are stronger and prepared to handle such an event like the one we are seeing.

Has Air Koriyo or Cubana ever made the list of dream companies to work for, or set the prime example in air service excellence? Thought not.

Hopefully the world will take this opportunity to get rid of the central banking and fiat currency experiment, as well as get rid of these bloated, inefficient bureaucratic governments. Two of the most efficient countries at dealing with this outbreak have been Singapore and Hong Kong. Both have minimal tax rates with small but effective governing, which is run more like a business than a political circus (for as long as China can keep out of HKG).

So don’t blame Capitalism, it does not exist in Europe or the US. Blame the corrupt, crony politicians that reduce your spending power through inflation while restricting your freedoms and bailing out their buddies in corrupt corporations. Some of these government clowns spend over 30 years in “public service”, with nothing to show for it except making life harder for people with real jobs like you and I. I say to them, get a real job. They would not last 1 week.

Sorry for the rant. Just hate seeing the innocent getting the blame when they aren’t even in the room.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 08:47
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It's the ugly face of capitalism. Just as socialism can have an ugly face. But it all boils down to the old adage 'Absolute power corrupts absolutely' - the truest thing ever said in the history of mankind.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 10:28
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Originally Posted by Sqwak7700 View Post
Sorry, but you are wrong on so many levels. The US does not have “extreme capitalism”. Bailing out industries that went heavily into debt by purchasing their own stock, is the opposite of capitalism. That is a form of socialism or fascism.

The problems in the airline industry, or pretty much most industries in the US, is that government has removed the moral hazard and risk. Bankruptcy protection, ”too big to fail” all that crap is NOT capitalism. And you don’t know what capitalism is if you believe otherwise.

Capitalism would let those businesses shut down and reorganize, and creative destruction, which is fundamental for capitalism and free markets to work, would result in better companies that are stronger and prepared to handle such an event like the one we are seeing.

Has Air Koriyo or Cubana ever made the list of dream companies to work for, or set the prime example in air service excellence? Thought not.

Hopefully the world will take this opportunity to get rid of the central banking and fiat currency experiment, as well as get rid of these bloated, inefficient bureaucratic governments. Two of the most efficient countries at dealing with this outbreak have been Singapore and Hong Kong. Both have minimal tax rates with small but effective governing, which is run more like a business than a political circus (for as long as China can keep out of HKG).

So don’t blame Capitalism, it does not exist in Europe or the US. Blame the corrupt, crony politicians that reduce your spending power through inflation while restricting your freedoms and bailing out their buddies in corrupt corporations. Some of these government clowns spend over 30 years in “public service”, with nothing to show for it except making life harder for people with real jobs like you and I. I say to them, get a real job. They would not last 1 week.

Sorry for the rant. Just hate seeing the innocent getting the blame when they aren’t even in the room.
Exactly the case.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 10:45
  #313 (permalink)  
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ILS27LEFT
An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
You are probably right on many points but I do not buy (yet) the civil war scenario, at least not in our democracies.

We tend to focus on UK and US here , but for me it is the other areas of the world which will be the most problematic. You can force people to say home and queue 1m from another to buy food in Germany , UK and possibly in parts of the US. But this is absolutely nonsense in Africa or even parts of India and Brazil to take only 3 examples. The social distancing is and will not be working here . That is the real long term worrying part, as then millions of people will try desperately to come where the food and the hospitals are ... You liked refugees from Guatemala. Afghanistan or Syria..? this will be on a totally different scale ...
On an optimistic note , in Italy the average age of deaths is 80 ,we not have the numbers for China , but it is also high age I was told. ( although probably less because life expectancy among poor Chinese in Wuhan is less than in Rich Lombardy ) ..
and the recovery rate is still above 90% , so , yes the world will be very different next year , with less old people around , but economy will restart , differently . but frankly I do not see a civil war coming up as long as there is enough food around and immigration is addressed and contained...
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 13:21
  #314 (permalink)  
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Posters.... I have deleted some recent posts, which really had little or nothing to do with the aviation industry. This is not a forum for discussions about health, society, nor political effects of the virus. Sure, those are each very worthy topics for discussion, just not here!

Please, before you click "reply" read what you've typed; does it center on the effects of the virus on the aviation industry? If not, please reconsider your post. This thread will not drift to being medical nor political centered...

One of your moderators...
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 15:36
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It is amazing that some people want funding denied to certain airlines because they spent money buying back shares and then engaged in rewarding their brass. Somehow those folks seem to forget that those very airlines employ a large number of employees who, if the lack of funding causes the airline to fold, will lose their jobs. Seems like "cutting off your nose to spite your face"
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 16:14
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What's wrong with bankruptcy? New owners (the creditors) and new management. The airline will carry on, with most of its employees, if there is enough business. Otherwise not or pared down. As it should go in capitalism.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 16:21
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Originally Posted by jan99 View Post
What's wrong with bankruptcy? New owners (the creditors) and new management. The airline will carry on, with most of its employees, if there is enough business. Otherwise not or pared down. As it should go in capitalism.
The history of airlines closing down does not support your theory.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/f...nes/index.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_airlines
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 17:44
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If the business of a particular airline is not viable then the airline ends indeed. Assets are sold. Employees must look for work elsewhere.
The government can support employees to help tide them over, but bankrupt companies must be let go. That is how it is supposed to work.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 17:57
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Can you think of any reasonable way of an airline to remain profitable in this crisis?

We are not talking about mismanagement or incompetence - it’s simply a question of the country trying to hibernate critical infrastructure and tens of thousands of jobs.
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 18:21
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Decades ago, the biggest business in my area went bankrupt. Then the principals bought it back at the bankruptcy sale.
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