ILS27LEFT
An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
You are probably right on many points but I do not buy (yet) the civil war scenario, at least not in our democracies.
We tend to focus on UK and US here , but for me it is the other areas of the world which will be the most problematic. You can force people to say home and queue 1m from another to buy food in Germany , UK and possibly in parts of the US. But this is absolutely nonsense in Africa or even parts of India and Brazil to take only 3 examples. The social distancing is and will not be working here . That is the real long term worrying part, as then millions of people will try desperately to come where the food and the hospitals are ... You liked refugees from Guatemala. Afghanistan or Syria..? this will be on a totally different scale ...
On an optimistic note , in Italy the average age of deaths is 80 ,we not have the numbers for China , but it is also high age I was told. ( although probably less because life expectancy among poor Chinese in Wuhan is less than in Rich Lombardy ) ..
and the recovery rate is still above 90% , so , yes the world will be very different next year , with less old people around , but economy will restart , differently . but frankly I do not see a civil war coming up as long as there is enough food around and immigration is addressed and contained...