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Jet2, Tui Or Ryanair?

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Jet2, Tui Or Ryanair?

Old 5th Apr 2020, 08:13
  #121 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: in a bakery
Posts: 50
Crewing Gimp:
People want to go on holiday, and will remember what Jet2 did to get them back home over the last month.
Might want to go on holiday; but will they book holidays straight out of the gate as countries re open their borders? Can they afford holidays? There wont be many pilots going on holiday after this any time soon. I like your optimism though.

I also think Jet2 didn't come out of this looking too shiny either just reading the press and news sites. Jet2 and Easy both got a bit of a slating, rightly or wrongly.

Anyhow, best of luck to all, I feel you are going to need it.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 09:12
  #122 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
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Holidays will be the last thing that regular people will have any money to spend on this year. It's a complete economic disaster which is happening all around us. He can appear to be optimistic but let's try and remain balanced somewhat. Yes our industry appears to be being hit hard right now, but you have to realise that other than some service industries and the food provision trade the rest is severely damaged every day we have this lockdown. The world is being changed and here we have delusions of potential holiday makers rushing to take up space in one of our aircraft being proposed by some. Oh dear says a lot for some of our esteemed colleague posters.

It appears to me that this bug is about to devastate the world we know and the future, well I'm not sure our politicians are suited to extract us in the best manner. Condolences to all family's losing their loved ones at this terrible time.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 09:36
  #123 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
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People will still go on holiday. Brits always find the money to get away in the summer. It absolutely will be seen as a priority, as soon as restrictions are lifted. There's also going to be a huge impetus behind efforts to get tourism going again in Spain, Greece etc. Business travel and city break type flying will suffer, but I suspect package holiday companies will come out of this bruised and battered but not terminally wounded.

It appears to me that this bug is about to devastate the world we know and the future, well I'm not sure our politicians are suited to extract us in the best manner.
The reaction to this virus will prove in time to be the most catastrophic overreaction imaginable. There seems to be a notion floating around that life must be saved at all costs. The harsh reality is that life does have a monetary value attached to it. President Trump is the only politician so far who seems to have been brave enough to acknowledge that at some point the balance is going to tip and we're going to have to get on with our lives, even though doing so is going to cause deaths.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 12:07
  #124 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
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Originally Posted by rotorwills View Post
Holidays will be the last thing that regular people will have any money to spend on this year. It's a complete economic disaster which is happening all around us.
It certainly feels like that when all of your colleagues and a lot of friends are in the dire situation aviation has found itself in.

However I played an online poker tournament last night with old school friends and all 9 of them in completely different jobs are working as normal from home, full pay no sign of any economic loss (in fact saving money as they havenít been spending on anything). There will be plenty people who come out of this fine and will want to travel as soon as they can.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 12:37
  #125 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
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Originally Posted by The Foss View Post
It certainly feels like that when all of your colleagues and a lot of friends are in the dire situation aviation has found itself in.

However I played an online poker tournament last night with old school friends and all 9 of them in completely different jobs are working as normal from home, full pay no sign of any economic loss (in fact saving money as they havenít been spending on anything). There will be plenty people who come out of this fine and will want to travel as soon as they can.
Likewise. The majority of my closest friends will come out of this with more money than they wouldíve done, with expenditure on gym memberships, weekly golf hacks, petrol, sky sports, beer, curry nights and every other recreational activity all going into savings/holiday fund accounts instead.

Judging by the doom and gloom on this forum, Iíd say the majority of members either have no friends outside of the aviation industry or have spent the majority of their new found free time watching the news.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 13:47
  #126 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
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While I agree it is not all doom and gloom. We have to keep one thing in mind though. Package Holiday operators like TUI, Jet2 and others are by law accountable when their customers cannot complete their holidays. They either have to provide their clients vouchers or worse, reimbursements. They also have to work out how much of the damage they can share with their suppliers (airlines / acco / etc). The problem is if one big player falls this might trigger a chain reaction. Package operators like TUI, who have expensive assets like airplanes and hotels are hit the hardest I guess. Luckily TUI was in reasonable good shape.



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Old 5th Apr 2020, 14:42
  #127 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
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Originally Posted by SaulGoodman View Post
Luckily TUI was in reasonable good shape.
Hope so, just booked a holiday with them for next year!

Tour operators continue to offer uber low deposits on holidays next year. I'm not holding my breath but hopefully people will take a small punt on a credit card and book a something for next year. Cash flow for these businesses is absolutely vital right now. Without it we expect some high profile casualties over the coming months.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 14:54
  #128 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
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It is far too early to make assumptions about how the industry will shape up! We can all agree it will be a very bad year for Aviation, some weaker Airlines will fail and there will be mistrust between nations and some loss of consumer confidence. However, we are assuming science and technology don’t play their part! Some of the biggest brains on the planet are working tirelessly to find testing kits, trial medication and find technology solutions to allow life to prevail. These are the darkest days now, and it’s understandable to feel vulnerable..... But just like this nasty virus finds a way, humans will find a way. I recall 9/11 was the end of aviation, confidence gone, there will be no demand for air travel, it’s over!

I’m sure there will be many who say the issue is not the virus it’s the impending recession.... Fair comment. However, unlike 08-10 recession there will be a level playing field globally, there won’t be austerity like last time as the world is currently closed for business. Opening the cash taps will be the only way to jolt business and people back to life! I imagine we are only scratching the surface of the state aid that will be required this year. But, remember there are large numbers of people who won’t even notice a difference to daily life... Some even better off.

Also, consider the Government are well aware of the immense pressure on the Aviation sector at the moment. Like many other industries there will be benefits in the form of tax reliefs, APD etc. Plus Airports, foreign countries will be desperate to entice the British public through their gates and to their shores. There will be a period of reduced costs for Airlines. Now, the big one...... Oil.... tanked... through the floor! As this is the biggest single unit cost for most Airlines, we can likely see a period of reduced fuel prices, which could be immensely significant for many Airlines over the next few years in terms of recovery.

Now let’s look at UK Aviation in isolation. In the leisure market a significant player ( TCX ) went bust last year causing a natural contraction. Also, the demise of a Flybe has left a hole in domestic travel which the Government will be keen to see plugged. There is a possibility of a couple of high profile players becoming insolvent, and it is likely the long haul market will be suppressed for a few years to come. However, I recall in the wake of 9/11 a certain Irish Airline picking up large quantities of cheap Aircraft and embarking on a significant growth cycle... We can assume there will be cancelled orders and excess stock of Aircraft knocking around for the next few years.... This will be viewed as opportunity by the more bold/shrewd in the industry.

Ultimately no-one knows what will happen, Aviation is hurting and will hurt More over the next 6 month. The significant pain will be short term ( maybe 3 months more ). A key question I ask myself is the international relationships and trust. If country A is clear, but B has seen a flair up in cases... Will travel restrictions be imposed/remain It is conceivable trust in the market will disappear in the short term, but effective treatment and testing, followed by a vaccine with 12-18 months will see a sustained recovery. I guess we can largely write off this year in Aviation, but I would ask the doom merchants to provide data of demand, forward bookings for this winter or maybe next year. Until we see that sort of data, assumptions are based on people’s own fear and propaganda.

There is no doubt Aviation will bounce back, it may take time and it may change. However, unlike many other occasions there is motivation to get business working. I personally believe the package holiday will emerge even stronger. The benefits of ABTA/ATOL. Also, the concept of all inclusive... ‘ I pay my money and sit by a pool and be catered for...don’t need to leave my hotel and mix .’ It’s simple human nature. That, backed up by science and technology will facilitate the crazy Brits darkening the shores of Benidorm and Magaluf once again. We need to sit tight and ride a very nasty storm and hope our employers have the resources to see the light at the end of the tunnel. But more importantly focus on the bigger picture of thousands people loosing their life... and doing our bit!

Last edited by frozenpilot; 5th Apr 2020 at 15:19.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 16:14
  #129 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Vokes55
Judging by the doom and gloom on this forum, Iíd say the majority of members either have no friends outside of the aviation industry or have spent the majority of their new found free time watching the news.
What type of flying do you do? Because unless you are doing schedule round the UK with weekends off or are part time having any kind of social life is very difficult.

What are you doing with your free time? Oh maybe I shouldn't have asked
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 20:29
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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It absolutely will be seen as a priority, as soon as restrictions are lifted.
I would agree, almost all my friends (and lots of them are not high earners) are saying things along the lines of "I hope my holiday in July, August, etc. is still on"
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 21:47
  #131 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
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Originally Posted by Vokes55 View Post
...
Judging by the doom and gloom on this forum, Iíd say the majority of members ... ... ... have spent the majority of their new found free time watching the news.
I have no "new found free time" BUT I have been 'self-isolating' from the news for about 3 weeks now. I do not need to watch repetitive doom mongers. I walk the dogs, work in the garden, read books, listen to music and go to work. And life is enjoyable. Not a single thing that you watch in the news is going to change your career over the next few weeks. But trying to find something 'between the lines' (or between the twaddle?) in the news can be depressing. So cheer yourself up and just don't watch it. This applies to every airline and every flying job at the moment.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 22:08
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by frozenpilot View Post
I would ask the doom merchants to provide data of demand, forward bookings for this winter or maybe next year. Until we see that sort of data, assumptions are based on peopleís own fear and propaganda....There is no doubt Aviation will bounce back, it may take time and it may change!
Some interesting points, please tell me us you have data that the aviation industry will be back to normal by the winter?
Most agree that the industry will bounce back, that in itself doesnít make one a sage on the subject, as to when this happens, well, thatís for the debate, but past events have shown that as global disruptions to the world economy go, this hangover may take a few more years to get over than you infer.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 23:10
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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Luckily TUI was in reasonable good shape.
More like good job TUI got a bail out from the German government.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 07:21
  #134 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
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would the GerGov give a “bail out” to an unhealthy company?
The Bail Out in fact was a loan that had to be approved by the banks. You think the banks would approve if they expected TUI not to be able to ever pay back?
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 10:07
  #135 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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I don't think governments always bailout healthy companies do they, they wouldn't be bailing it out if it was healthy. Healthy companies have cash reserves to cater for the unthinkable.

Quick look at TUI AG's books and they were forecasting a net profit of approximately £500 million, however they have a net debt of over 5 BILLION, so basically they have zero cash in in the bank, hence the reason for needing bailing out.

TUI AG is certainly not a company I would put any cash into.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 11:43
  #136 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
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At the moment it is not a bailout. It is a line of credit which may or may not be needed depending on how long the current situation lasts. It is a prudent move as there is still much uncertainty and it is better to have it in place now rather than trying to find support later should the world situation deteriorate further. As to putting money into the company, the current situation did not deter a multi-national investor buying 3.5% of the company.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 12:33
  #137 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
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banterbus

I agree in part with both Big X and Banterbus. Using the GOV job retention scheme is indeed a very prudent and sensible business move. It simply makes sense - it's effectively free money and will increase the sustainability of the cash reserves the company has. However the communication has to date in my opinion been lacking. The letter we all received was half baked, and unintentionally (I have no doubt) caused a lot of anxiety and uncertainty to a lot of staff. Almost a week on and the fact is, there's not one of us employees who have been furloughed, who have any firm idea of what we may or may not be paid this month or in the months to come. Yes, we all assume there will be an uplift of some kind, but that is actually only an assumption - I'm 100% certain it's a correct assumption, as our Management do actually care, but still, it is an assumption. So yes, I agree the use of the furlough scheme is a good thing, but let's not pretend the communication around has been anything other than dismal.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 14:16
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Normal Pilot View Post
I don't think governments always bailout healthy companies do they, they wouldn't be bailing it out if it was healthy. Healthy companies have cash reserves to cater for the unthinkable.

Quick look at TUI AG's books and they were forecasting a net profit of approximately £500 million, however they have a net debt of over 5 BILLION, so basically they have zero cash in in the bank, hence the reason for needing bailing out.

TUI AG is certainly not a company I would put any cash into.
Because of the low interest environment that has been around since 2008 I think youíll struggle to find any big multinational businesses that hasnít taken advantage of debt and low interest rates. Which with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have just got even lower.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 14:26
  #139 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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DTG, EZJ both have net cash. DTG probably has one of the strongest books amongst the airlines.

Any company with more debt that it can pay will eventually go bust, doesn't matter how cheap the debt is, you have to pay it back one day.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 17:24
  #140 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
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Originally Posted by MINself View Post
Some interesting points, please tell me us you have data that the aviation industry will be back to normal by the winter?
Most agree that the industry will bounce back, that in itself doesnít make one a sage on the subject, as to when this happens, well, thatís for the debate, but past events have shown that as global disruptions to the world economy go, this hangover may take a few more years to get over than you infer.

Iím certainly not suggesting this winter and next year it will be back to the good times! I am not inferring that. Outside the Flight deck I work with Aerodrome stake holders and regulators across the globe. It is widely expected it will take several years to recover ( if itís even possible ) to 2019 traffic levels. However, so many people talk of Aviation being doomed, shrinking to nothing, and all sorts of other scary prospects. However, we must look at each event in isolation. P*ssed off Brits stuck at home for extended periods being part funded by the Government! Oil costing a fraction of what it did previously. Chancellors motivated to prop economies up, not normal in a recession.

I am for not one second suggesting how this may play out.... It is severe for the industry! But.... in the UK we have seen a number of Airlines fail prior to COVID, so there has been a natural contraction. I personally have lived through 9/11, SARS,MERS,swine flu and two significant gulf wars. I am saying that humans do and will find a way to trust the industry again, and they will!. Things will certainly change, it will be most prevalent in long haul markets and business travel. But I genuinely am mildly optimistic that we can and will prevail unlike other times of setback. I do believe a I unilateral global response is key and the limiting factor until we see a vaccine available.

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