Originally Posted by
MINself
Some interesting points, please tell me us you have data that the aviation industry will be back to normal by the winter?
Most agree that the industry will bounce back, that in itself doesn’t make one a sage on the subject, as to when this happens, well, that’s for the debate, but past events have shown that as global disruptions to the world economy go, this hangover may take a few more years to get over than you infer.
I’m certainly not suggesting this winter and next year it will be back to the good times! I am not inferring that. Outside the Flight deck I work with Aerodrome stake holders and regulators across the globe. It is widely expected it will take several years to recover ( if it’s even possible ) to 2019 traffic levels. However, so many people talk of Aviation being doomed, shrinking to nothing, and all sorts of other scary prospects. However, we must look at each event in isolation. P*ssed off Brits stuck at home for extended periods being part funded by the Government! Oil costing a fraction of what it did previously. Chancellors motivated to prop economies up, not normal in a recession.
I am for not one second suggesting how this may play out.... It is severe for the industry! But.... in the UK we have seen a number of Airlines fail prior to COVID, so there has been a natural contraction. I personally have lived through 9/11, SARS,MERS,swine flu and two significant gulf wars. I am saying that humans do and will find a way to trust the industry again, and they will!. Things will certainly change, it will be most prevalent in long haul markets and business travel. But I genuinely am mildly optimistic that we can and will prevail unlike other times of setback. I do believe a I unilateral global response is key and the limiting factor until we see a vaccine available.