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Things have to get worse before they can get better

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Things have to get worse before they can get better

Old 5th Mar 2014, 17:56
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Things have to get worse before they can get better

I have to say I was gobsmacked at another posts where it was noted that there are currently 2000+ qualified applicants for the next round of entry level FO recruitment at Ryanair and that only about 1 in 10, 250 hr fATPL applicants are getting on at Easyjet.

Even with very poor T & C 's on offer there seems to be a huge surplus of wannabe airline pilots out there.

IMO the inescapable conclusion is that conditions are going to have to get far worse before they will get better in terms of how much it costs an individual to get to a point where they are employable, and then to have a reasonable chance to get hired at decent T & C's.

It will be interesting to see what the tipping point will be.....
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 17:59
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The only future seems to be for low-houred recruitment and poor terms and conditions. If experienced then it's best to not believe you will ever get decent conditions sadly.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:26
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Considering all the psycho-babble hoops and examinations a wannabee pilot has to jump through and assessments to be passed, how come the assessors never come up with the conclusion they must be insane to be a wannabee.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:57
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Sadly, and incredibly unusually, I agree with John Smith.

I just wish consumer organizations would publicise the swindle being peddled to kids and parents by the flight training organizations. It is clear that currently there is less than a 50% chance of any return on investment in becoming a Pilot. You lose years of your life trying.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 23:19
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Big Piston, remove your pink glasses and slap yourself...^^

Don't take your dream for a reality, this one will not.

I strongly agree with Mr John Smith. FO will pay more and more, they will get proposed long pseudo "line training" from 500h to 3000h, to have minima to be captain...that is the futur. I bet it. And I will eat my hat on that.
Flying is normal nowaday, pilots are not heros anymore. Forget 1970's movies. Flying is considered like driving for business. No more no less!
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 23:56
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Well that is the first time I have ever been accused of wearing rose coloured glasses .

There is no doubt in my mind that the LOCO's are going to start wanting the first 500 hours in the right seat to be unpaid intern time and then when that works start charging for the privilege of being a "jet pilot".

I guess I find it hard to believe that there is an unlimited supply of people so deluded that they are OK with a deal where you will pay 120+ grand for your training and then work for free but there is only going to be about 1 in 4 who spend that money who are even going to get an opportunity to work for nothing.

Surely at some point people are going to wise up ?
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 06:09
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There is a big fracture in the market

Hello. I think actually thing will go better only for experienced skippers rated on largerly common commercial jets. It will take a lot of time to absorb the inexperienced youngster, but at the end it will improve also for them.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 07:05
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For the bleedin' final time Colgan had nothing to do with inexperience! I don't know how many more times this nonsense has to be regurgitated.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 07:59
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What we've had in the last decade is a rare combination of mainly loco growth, but also looser medicals, more immigration and the final realisation that to fly an A320 you don't need to be the top 0.1% of the population.

So demand has gone up, but supply has massively.

The T&Cs are still not clear to everyone however because legacy pilots are still earning good money.

There will be growth in Asia, but let's forget the big expat packages.

I don't see it changing as I do think that it's a less demanding job for most of the time than it was yesteryear.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 20:39
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Even with very poor T & C 's on offer there seems to be a huge surplus of wannabe airline pilots out there.
If you follow some aviation newspaper, american flight school and airlines soon there will be a huge shortage of pilots. Ihihih, I am listening this mantra from 2001 until today... I am still waiting for this rumor.

I would like to know who is gaining something from this joke!
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 22:46
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The Americans have made a hugely positive step for the profession. By requiring an ATPL they are ensuring that all the expertise won't be in the left hand seat and they have constrained the supply of pilots.

You want to make it to the airlines you need to pay your dues. This will discourage all the "Daddy will buy me an airline job" poseurs. By the time anybody is ready to see a Regional Jet recruiter they are going to be a lot less interested in a 16,000 dollar a year salary with no benefits. T & C's are going to have to go up and the airlines that don't have a reasonable package are not going to get any applicants.
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Old 7th Mar 2014, 04:34
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That's all very nice for the good ol' us of a, but when are these extremely sensible ATPL rules going to be implemented in the rest of the world?
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Old 7th Mar 2014, 17:43
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Well that is the first time I have ever been accused of wearing rose coloured glasses .
I was teasing you Big Piston

I guess I find it hard to believe that there is an unlimited supply of people so deluded that they are OK with a deal where you will pay 120+ grand for your training and then work for free
Well, I am not so surprised, because nowadays youngs brainless (sorry I am harsh but I do not have sympathy for those people) people even PAY for flying in a right seat.
So, if we consider this, flying for free (you dont pay) would be awsome for them.
You get my point ?

Today they pay, tomorrow they won't. => awsome !

Most of them are passionnate meaning that you do not think with the brain but you manage your life with the heart. (irrationnal).
This explains why people will still fly for free or for crap salaries even if they would be homeless by the end of the career (yeah because it will be harder and harder to buy a house with those terms and conditions).
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Old 7th Mar 2014, 19:12
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When I moved to Sweden back in the late 80's, there was an ongoing scandal among the pilot community involving a guy who had had his medical revoked for having spent too much on flying training. He was judged by his AME as having inappropriate cognitive skills for a career as a professional pilot (no criticism of his flying ability, as far as I remember).

But that was in the good old days of course
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Old 8th Mar 2014, 01:49
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Flying Clog

The answer to your question perhaps lies in examining what it took for the US authorities to implement those rules; sadly, that's a smoking hole in the ground - somewhat attributable to working conditions and experience.

Too little, too late for those involved.
 
Old 8th Mar 2014, 15:23
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Things will not change dramatically whilst there is so much money involved in the training of new pilots.
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Old 8th Mar 2014, 15:34
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Thumbs down

Yes, sadly, things will only change with a smoking hole in the ground somewhere in Euroland.

I just hope that it isn't me or one of my mates sat in the left seat with some numpty in the right seat whoring himself and not being able to find his way out of a wet paper bag when the excrement hits the wall.

Let's not forget about the passengers, but they're just collateral damage that will hopefully result in the bean counters and utter bar steward CEOs going straight to hell and burning there eternally.
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Old 8th Mar 2014, 16:31
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One or two people would do well to breath into a paper bag!

"Smoking holes?" If you want to read reports that fluttered out of those, fill your boots. There are decades and decades worth, mostly involving very experienced crews. Safety has improved in leaps and bounds with advances in technology and a greater introspection into the non-technical elements of crewmember performance.

The breathless often cite "Colgan" and "AF447" as their "evidence" yet as RexBanner has pointed out neither of these accidents had an inexperienced pilot in the flight deck. However that inconvenient fact rarely gets in the way for the exponents of this drivel.

Inexperienced but well trained pilots have been part of a cadet cadre for many, many, years now. It has been a tried and tested concept for many airlines since the Sixties. The steep learning curve that comes with the airline phase of a cadets training rather precludes the "numpties" from advancing much further. So with Fifty odd years of this training regime, where are all the "smoking holes?"

On the other hand, if you want to talk about poor CRM, lack of situational awareness, automation complacency, poor fatigue management, CFIT, and sloppy use of procedures, then I can point you to a veritable moonful of craters for you and your mates to wring your hands over.
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Old 8th Mar 2014, 16:55
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Beazlebub- I am sure you are a really experienced guy yourself and I respect your opinion. However I do disagree, even though I have only the Britannia 1999 Girona incident to demonstrate the point.

I m sure you have noticed that as you have got older and more experienced you have become a safer Pilot. It therefore stands to reason that companies selecting more experienced Pilots will achieve an overall higher standard of safety.

You talk about the cadet system going now for fifty years. This is true but I remember 25 years ago that he initial instrument rating failure rate was 90%, and that was after selection. Now the pass rate is about 90% and the only selection is does Mummy have the money.
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Old 8th Mar 2014, 18:20
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Thank you Polax52.

I am not sure what point the "BY" accident at Girona demonstrates? In that accident (I was flying about 200 miles West of GRO that night and remember the proliferation of thunderstorms over the Pyrenees,) the Commander who was PF at the time of the landing accident had 16,700 hours of which nearly 3600 hours were on type. The F/O had 1500 hours of which 1145 hours were on type. As I recall the accident report addressed a lack of Go around training from below decision height, but nothing relating to the training or experience levels of the F/O that was contributory to the accident? With nearly 1200 hours on type the F/O would be approaching something akin to two years worth of experience, and if he was a cadet at that time, would likely have been on the cusp of no longer being so, as his ATPL would have been close to becoming "unfrozen." However again, nothing in the accident report suggested a correlation between his experience levels and the contributory causes to that accident.

I would be extremely surprised if the IR failure rate was 9 out of every 10 candidates. However if I accept the premise, it would be worth remembering that 25 years ago most of the applicants for that rating would have been "non approved" (todays modular) CPL holders or PPL holders who would, (in those days even more than now,) have made up the vast bulk of applicants. Today the pass rate may be much higher but I doubt the criteria is "does Mummy have the money" any more than it was then.

I m sure you have noticed that as you have got older and more experienced you have become a safer Pilot. It therefore stands to reason that companies selecting more experienced Pilots will achieve an overall higher standard of safety
I think that we all like to think that, but sometimes experience can be a prop that is used to substitute for awareness. It is therefore something to be wary of. I remind myself every time I walk from the car park into the crew room that almost every accident that ever happened started with a crew doing just this, and thinking they were experienced, safe, and ready for anything. So many, many, accidents since the start of the jet age and certainly before, occurred to crews with impressively high levels of experience and often in both seats. Sometimes of course that was a part of the problem.

I have been involved with our own cadet programme since it started over 15 years ago. Like many captains, I was very sceptical and wary at the start, of just how this was going to be incepted and how it was going to evolve. It started at about the same time that CRM was becoming a requirement (and growth industry) in the UK, although the USA had brought in these programmes some years previously. The thing that stood out for me with these new cadets, was just how ingrained these CRM concepts were in their ab-initio training. The ability to question, the flattening of authority gradients, and the awareness of their own limits, was something that particularly stood out. These cadets were fast learners, and in many ways their understanding of the non-technical aspects of the occupation was something that caused"experienced" pilots (such as myself) a reversal of the learning roles. Fifteen (plus) years later, I can say that of all the concerns I have on a day to day to day basis, flying with cadets is a very long way down the list, and for good reason.

As for experience... well, those cadets of 15 years ago are now todays 11,000 hour captains, training captains, and management pilots. What they learned at the start and through the intervening 15 years, continues to provide todays high levels of safety. Provided they continue to maintain high degrees of awareness, self progression and critique, so they pass that on to the generations of pilots that follow up through the ranks. I think there is a certain arrogance and complacency in saying "I am a safe pilot," but if that were true, I am quite certain that todays well trained and mentored pilots are likely to be better.
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