Things have to get worse before they can get better
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
My point is that inexperience is not a huge issue if there is good awareness of that lack of experience. I'm with MH182 here - most important thing is to have a sufficient overall level of experience ie. experienced captains with inexperienced FOs and inexperienced captains preferably with experienced FOs. (I certainly don't regard 1,000 hours as experienced!)
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Maybe it's an oversimplified comparison, but I have seen plenty of people driving cars for years that are far worse drivers than some newly qualified kid with an actual sense of spacial awareness and a bit of common sense.
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I think a valuable point has been raised here, that if pilots with 1000 hrs regard themselves as old hands, due to the large number of 500 hr pilots around, then there has been a paradigm shift in what constitutes experience.
A guy said to me once that when he had 2500 hrs, he felt ready for the left hand seat, but by the time he had 3500 hrs, he realised he wasn't.
It is quite possible that a lack of experience in either seat may introduce a level of overconfidence due to a reduced perception of how quickly it can all go wrong and what the likely consequences may be.
The inexperienced, while perfectly competent, may not have yet developed a sufficient perception of risk and the longer the safe operation continues, the more the confirmation bias is maintained that the level of risk is low.
Of course, exactly the same applies to 20 000 hr pilots who believe that they have beaten the odds!
A guy said to me once that when he had 2500 hrs, he felt ready for the left hand seat, but by the time he had 3500 hrs, he realised he wasn't.
It is quite possible that a lack of experience in either seat may introduce a level of overconfidence due to a reduced perception of how quickly it can all go wrong and what the likely consequences may be.
The inexperienced, while perfectly competent, may not have yet developed a sufficient perception of risk and the longer the safe operation continues, the more the confirmation bias is maintained that the level of risk is low.
Of course, exactly the same applies to 20 000 hr pilots who believe that they have beaten the odds!
Good post Alycidon.
I remember obtaining my ATPL on around 1700 hours and feeling a swelling of self-confidence, yet it was only at the end of my command course, when I had more than double the hours, that I realised how much I didn't know.
They say that ignorance is bliss. True. Donald was right. There are indeed known unknowns. I know that now. It's the unknown unknowns that catch you out. I didn't know that then.
I remember obtaining my ATPL on around 1700 hours and feeling a swelling of self-confidence, yet it was only at the end of my command course, when I had more than double the hours, that I realised how much I didn't know.
They say that ignorance is bliss. True. Donald was right. There are indeed known unknowns. I know that now. It's the unknown unknowns that catch you out. I didn't know that then.
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Too many RHS guys think the transfer to LHS is very much being an above average handler and an excellent SOP operator. Indeed, with extensive SOP's for every occasion, and an ideal day the above criteria will more than satisfy a command upgrade assessment, even check ride. However, it is what goes on during a non-ideal day that matters. That is when experience is required, but not always available.
I flew with some excellent ex-cadet F/O's. By that I mean guys who jumped into RHS with 150hrs and now had 2 years and 1500hrs. One telling comment was how they preferred flying with the old farts on dodgy days, or even when just some deviation/discretion/alternative thinking was required. The OF's just got on with the job and used airmanship/common sense to square the circle and get the job done in a safe and acceptable manner. The lower experienced captains from the sausage factory hesitated; thought about what the book said; wondered if it was allowed; were nervous about what best to do, meanwhile the a/c was travelling on its merry way, perhaps not in the best manner. A command course can teach/groom/cultivate a new captain, but it can't inject experience and thinking processes. Those foundations should already be there, but they are not always. A good understanding of the a/c systems and how to operate them; a good understanding of SOP's and a sound leadership manner can be enough to pass the upgrade. Is it enough to be in command of a high intensive operation into a wide variety or airports in all seasons? For discussion.
In a previous life it was very noticeable that the command pass rate varied with the season. High pass rate in summer, much lower in winter. Yet, those companies that produce low expereince captains in the summer months, they having been F/O's in southerly bases, could then send them to become captains with a winter basing in the north. Is that a good idea? For discussion. I was very glad I'd spent a healthy time as an apprentice F/O in cold climes before being thrust up there with the responsibility to make the decisions. I was nervous, of course, but had the grounding. I'd hate to think how one must feel if they had only a winter ops book to fall back on; and no help from RHS.
It is not a simple matter and there is no simple answer, but it is not one to take too lightly either.
I flew with some excellent ex-cadet F/O's. By that I mean guys who jumped into RHS with 150hrs and now had 2 years and 1500hrs. One telling comment was how they preferred flying with the old farts on dodgy days, or even when just some deviation/discretion/alternative thinking was required. The OF's just got on with the job and used airmanship/common sense to square the circle and get the job done in a safe and acceptable manner. The lower experienced captains from the sausage factory hesitated; thought about what the book said; wondered if it was allowed; were nervous about what best to do, meanwhile the a/c was travelling on its merry way, perhaps not in the best manner. A command course can teach/groom/cultivate a new captain, but it can't inject experience and thinking processes. Those foundations should already be there, but they are not always. A good understanding of the a/c systems and how to operate them; a good understanding of SOP's and a sound leadership manner can be enough to pass the upgrade. Is it enough to be in command of a high intensive operation into a wide variety or airports in all seasons? For discussion.
In a previous life it was very noticeable that the command pass rate varied with the season. High pass rate in summer, much lower in winter. Yet, those companies that produce low expereince captains in the summer months, they having been F/O's in southerly bases, could then send them to become captains with a winter basing in the north. Is that a good idea? For discussion. I was very glad I'd spent a healthy time as an apprentice F/O in cold climes before being thrust up there with the responsibility to make the decisions. I was nervous, of course, but had the grounding. I'd hate to think how one must feel if they had only a winter ops book to fall back on; and no help from RHS.
It is not a simple matter and there is no simple answer, but it is not one to take too lightly either.
Last edited by RAT 5; 6th Apr 2014 at 13:13.
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I read this thread with interest, as I find myself in the predicament of being a reasonably experienced (3-4000h) pilot who wants to advance in my career, but can't.
Personally, I've got no problem sharing the cockpit with a 250h cadet. I just wish that recruitment wasn't biased in their favour. I'm a realist, and I realise that to advance in my career I'll need to accept poorer T&Cs than that which I am on at the moment as the commander of a light TP in a small operation (hard to believe, but it's true that worse T&Cs do exist).
Personally, I've got no problem sharing the cockpit with a 250h cadet. I just wish that recruitment wasn't biased in their favour. I'm a realist, and I realise that to advance in my career I'll need to accept poorer T&Cs than that which I am on at the moment as the commander of a light TP in a small operation (hard to believe, but it's true that worse T&Cs do exist).
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You know, this whole discussion is just academic anyway.
What really matters is what do the non pilot bean counters think. Is the risk of placing inexperienced pilots in the cockpit low enough to justify the increased profits from the reduced salaries and longer hours low timers are willing to tolerate? In most cases they say yes and just cross their fingers.
Most bean counters don't consider the less obvious and less measurable benefits of experienced pilots that may translate to reduced training and operating expenses.
On the other hand, there are probably enough high timers out there with such a disgruntled bad attitude they may end up costing more anyway.
What really matters is what do the non pilot bean counters think. Is the risk of placing inexperienced pilots in the cockpit low enough to justify the increased profits from the reduced salaries and longer hours low timers are willing to tolerate? In most cases they say yes and just cross their fingers.
Most bean counters don't consider the less obvious and less measurable benefits of experienced pilots that may translate to reduced training and operating expenses.
On the other hand, there are probably enough high timers out there with such a disgruntled bad attitude they may end up costing more anyway.
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Personally, I do believe that the overall level of inherent safety is depleted by the cadet recruitment programme at many European Airlines if it is coupled with a regime of early command upgrades.
Pilots nowadays work a lot harder (more sectors, more hours) then they used to, ergo you build up experience faster. I would not be surprised if a 5 year pilot will have gained as much hours and experience in those 5 years as a pilot would do in 10 years in the 80/90's.
5000 hours flying longhaul into major airports with ILS facilities and long runways, does not generate the same experience as 5000 hours shorthaul to a greater variety of airports that also include non-precision, circling and visual approaches.
As long as you are not fatigued, continuity of flying will make you a better pilot.
Not a single commander will have experienced everything before he gained command, and statistically you never will. It's all about the grounding, selection and attitude of the command candidate. Hours or indeed time in the airline are a very small factor.
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That the numbers of incidents or accidents is generally on the decrease is quite obviously due to the simplification and reliability of the equipment, the ATC environment, and not due to an influx of better pilots.
And returning to where we started: the supply of pilots is still too large for the positions available. Not until the supply equals demand will T's & C's improve. Ergo, things will have to get so good we run out of pilots (most unlikely) or so bad nobody can afford to train - again, quite unlikely. Therefore, may I respectfully suggest that people should learn to drive a train or become a plumber until things improve.
