Things have to get worse before they can get better
 

I have to say I was gobsmacked at another posts where it was noted that there are currently 2000+ qualified applicants for the next round of entry level FO recruitment at Ryanair and that only about 1 in 10, 250 hr fATPL applicants are getting on at Easyjet.

Even with very poor T & C 's on offer there seems to be a huge surplus of wannabe airline pilots out there.

IMO the inescapable conclusion is that conditions are going to have to get far worse before they will get better in terms of how much it costs an individual to get to a point where they are employable, and then to have a reasonable chance to get hired at decent T & C's.

It will be interesting to see what the tipping point will be.....

The only future seems to be for low-houred recruitment and poor terms and conditions. If experienced then it's best to not believe you will ever get decent conditions sadly.

Considering all the psycho-babble hoops and examinations a wannabee pilot has to jump through and assessments to be passed, how come the assessors never come up with the conclusion they must be insane to be a wannabee.

Sadly, and incredibly unusually, I agree with John Smith.

I just wish consumer organizations would publicise the swindle being peddled to kids and parents by the flight training organizations. It is clear that currently there is less than a 50% chance of any return on investment in becoming a Pilot. You lose years of your life trying.

Big Piston, remove your pink glasses and slap yourself...^^

Don't take your dream for a reality, this one will not.:rolleyes:

I strongly agree with Mr John Smith. FO will pay more and more, they will get proposed long pseudo "line training" from 500h to 3000h, to have minima to be captain...that is the futur. I bet it. And I will eat my hat on that.
Flying is normal nowaday, pilots are not heros anymore. Forget 1970's movies. Flying is considered like driving for business. No more no less!

Well that is the first time I have ever been accused of wearing rose coloured glasses :uhoh:.

There is no doubt in my mind that the LOCO's are going to start wanting the first 500 hours in the right seat to be unpaid intern time and then when that works start charging for the privilege of being a "jet pilot".

I guess I find it hard to believe that there is an unlimited supply of people so deluded that they are OK with a deal where you will pay 120+ grand for your training and then work for free but there is only going to be about 1 in 4 who spend that money who are even going to get an opportunity to work for nothing.

Surely at some point people are going to wise up ?

There is a big fracture in the market
 

Hello. I think actually thing will go better only for experienced skippers rated on largerly common commercial jets. It will take a lot of time to absorb the inexperienced youngster, but at the end it will improve also for them.

For the bleedin' final time Colgan had nothing to do with inexperience! I don't know how many more times this nonsense has to be regurgitated.

What we've had in the last decade is a rare combination of mainly loco growth, but also looser medicals, more immigration and the final realisation that to fly an A320 you don't need to be the top 0.1% of the population.

So demand has gone up, but supply has massively.

The T&Cs are still not clear to everyone however because legacy pilots are still earning good money.

There will be growth in Asia, but let's forget the big expat packages.

I don't see it changing as I do think that it's a less demanding job for most of the time than it was yesteryear.

If you follow some aviation newspaper, american flight school and airlines soon there will be a huge shortage of pilots. Ihihih, I am listening this mantra from 2001 until today... I am still waiting for this rumor.

I would like to know who is gaining something from this joke!

The Americans have made a hugely positive step for the profession. By requiring an ATPL they are ensuring that all the expertise won't be in the left hand seat and they have constrained the supply of pilots.

You want to make it to the airlines you need to pay your dues. This will discourage all the "Daddy will buy me an airline job" poseurs. By the time anybody is ready to see a Regional Jet recruiter they are going to be a lot less interested in a 16,000 dollar a year salary with no benefits. T & C's are going to have to go up and the airlines that don't have a reasonable package are not going to get any applicants. :ok:

That's all very nice for the good ol' us of a, but when are these extremely sensible ATPL rules going to be implemented in the rest of the world?

I was teasing you Big Piston ;)

Well, I am not so surprised, because nowadays youngs brainless (sorry I am harsh but I do not have sympathy for those people) people even PAY for flying in a right seat.
So, if we consider this, flying for free (you dont pay) would be awsome for them.
You get my point ?

Today they pay, tomorrow they won't. => awsome ! :D

Most of them are passionnate meaning that you do not think with the brain but you manage your life with the heart. (irrationnal).
This explains why people will still fly for free or for crap salaries even if they would be homeless by the end of the career (yeah because it will be harder and harder to buy a house with those terms and conditions).

When I moved to Sweden back in the late 80's, there was an ongoing scandal among the pilot community involving a guy who had had his medical revoked for having spent too much on flying training. He was judged by his AME as having inappropriate cognitive skills for a career as a professional pilot (no criticism of his flying ability, as far as I remember).

But that was in the good old days of course

Flying Clog
 

The answer to your question perhaps lies in examining what it took for the US authorities to implement those rules; sadly, that's a smoking hole in the ground - somewhat attributable to working conditions and experience.

Too little, too late for those involved.

Things will not change dramatically whilst there is so much money involved in the training of new pilots.

Yes, sadly, things will only change with a smoking hole in the ground somewhere in Euroland.

I just hope that it isn't me or one of my mates sat in the left seat with some numpty in the right seat whoring himself and not being able to find his way out of a wet paper bag when the excrement hits the wall.

Let's not forget about the passengers, but they're just collateral damage that will hopefully result in the bean counters and utter bar steward CEOs going straight to hell and burning there eternally.

One or two people would do well to breath into a paper bag!

"Smoking holes?" If you want to read reports that fluttered out of those, fill your boots. There are decades and decades worth, mostly involving very experienced crews. Safety has improved in leaps and bounds with advances in technology and a greater introspection into the non-technical elements of crewmember performance.

The breathless often cite "Colgan" and "AF447" as their "evidence" yet as RexBanner has pointed out neither of these accidents had an inexperienced pilot in the flight deck. However that inconvenient fact rarely gets in the way for the exponents of this drivel.

Inexperienced but well trained pilots have been part of a cadet cadre for many, many, years now. It has been a tried and tested concept for many airlines since the Sixties. The steep learning curve that comes with the airline phase of a cadets training rather precludes the "numpties" from advancing much further. So with Fifty odd years of this training regime, where are all the "smoking holes?"

On the other hand, if you want to talk about poor CRM, lack of situational awareness, automation complacency, poor fatigue management, CFIT, and sloppy use of procedures, then I can point you to a veritable moonful of craters for you and your mates to wring your hands over.

Beazlebub- I am sure you are a really experienced guy yourself and I respect your opinion. However I do disagree, even though I have only the Britannia 1999 Girona incident to demonstrate the point.

I m sure you have noticed that as you have got older and more experienced you have become a safer Pilot. It therefore stands to reason that companies selecting more experienced Pilots will achieve an overall higher standard of safety.

You talk about the cadet system going now for fifty years. This is true but I remember 25 years ago that he initial instrument rating failure rate was 90%, and that was after selection. Now the pass rate is about 90% and the only selection is does Mummy have the money.