Norwegian A320neo order
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Three Lions - Just to explain, my comments about the 200 hour cadets were not to say that we do not have them but rather you cannot run an airline with them. By that I mean you need experienced captains and training captains in particular. You can make up the demographics of the FOs how you like, although you would be very unwise not build in the possibility of promoting them as time goes by. Low-houred cadets will not be promotable for some years and that may stunt your growth later on.
As others are pointing out here, Vueling could yet be the saviour of NAS in providing crews at the right time for their Airbuses. The problem with that is that Vueling are now an appendage of British Airways, who are attacking the low cost market themselves in a big way through them. The players fighting it out are basically easyJet, Ryanair, Norwegian and Vueling. Everyone has a a price and if Norwegian gets that right they can pick the pocket of Vueling and get whoever they want. The problem is that BA (Vueling's backers) have two massive incentives to stop that happening - their own desire to be top dog in the market, for which they require experienced captains and the need to prevent Norwegian expanding. Both can be achieved by preventing the flow of key pilots (experienced training captains in particular) leaving them through their own inducement packages. (I just hope easyJet do the same!) This is a competitive industry and all players in the game must pay the market rate to get the goods and services they require. If you require some very experienced pilots on type, and everyone is basically looking for the same people, then that puts up the price - the wonders of supply and demand. If there is a glut then the price goes down - simples! Just have a look at some of the salaries A320 captains can command in China right now to see what supply and demand does. Frankly, I can only rejoice at the situation and hope we all benefit.
As others are pointing out here, Vueling could yet be the saviour of NAS in providing crews at the right time for their Airbuses. The problem with that is that Vueling are now an appendage of British Airways, who are attacking the low cost market themselves in a big way through them. The players fighting it out are basically easyJet, Ryanair, Norwegian and Vueling. Everyone has a a price and if Norwegian gets that right they can pick the pocket of Vueling and get whoever they want. The problem is that BA (Vueling's backers) have two massive incentives to stop that happening - their own desire to be top dog in the market, for which they require experienced captains and the need to prevent Norwegian expanding. Both can be achieved by preventing the flow of key pilots (experienced training captains in particular) leaving them through their own inducement packages. (I just hope easyJet do the same!) This is a competitive industry and all players in the game must pay the market rate to get the goods and services they require. If you require some very experienced pilots on type, and everyone is basically looking for the same people, then that puts up the price - the wonders of supply and demand. If there is a glut then the price goes down - simples! Just have a look at some of the salaries A320 captains can command in China right now to see what supply and demand does. Frankly, I can only rejoice at the situation and hope we all benefit.
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AdM,
Most of us have been waiting for the pendulum to swing the other way on "Supply&Demand" for a L O N G time. Unfortunately, every time we thought we were "nearly there", someone else conveniently (for the Beanies
) went bust, and the status quo continued.
I admire your optimism, and cross my fingers it is well placed.
Most of us have been waiting for the pendulum to swing the other way on "Supply&Demand" for a L O N G time. Unfortunately, every time we thought we were "nearly there", someone else conveniently (for the Beanies
) went bust, and the status quo continued. I admire your optimism, and cross my fingers it is well placed.
Mach 3
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For example, that little white bump on their 737 fuselage with all the wi-fi gubbins in it would cost around 1% in a fuel penalty - that is a catastrophic loss for any airline given the margins.
But every 738 of theirs carries ~20% more passengers than an Orange 319...
So even if you reckon their smart uniforms will only account for persuading 1% of their punters they're a better outfit than EZY, they're still generating 20% more revenue per flight for an equal ticket price.
What is refreshing about the Norwegians is that they are nowhere near as cynical as the English.
No doubt Kjus is a maverick and I think their expansion will slow but its laughable to suggest they're losing money. They're making boatloads of it. However, the share price is under sustained attack for all sorts of reasons, many mentioned on the board already....
NAS can always, in the final analysis, retreat to Scandanavia, but my guess is that isn't about to happen soon.
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SR71 - there is no doubt that a 738 is a good size, but the only thing that matters is the cost/seat. When easyJet bought the A319 more than 10 years ago it was a deal they could not say no to. The future of easyJet is the A320 (180 seats) and the A319 (156 seats) will gradually disappear. The reason Ryanair have maintained their No 1 position at taking the most passenger is having a 189-seater aircraft, when for years easyJet had a 156-seater as competition. Although I always doubted the wisdom of the A319 (Hamburg-built), at the time the order was made there were no production line slots available for the A320 (Toulouse-built). Therefore easyJet got a fantastic deal, which at the time was the best in Airbus's history. I am told this latest deal is actually an even better one, although the details are very secretive, as you might expect. Norwegian currently have 73 738's (186/189-seater) and in Nov 13 easyJet had 64 A320s, but that changes month by month in favour of more A320s. Norwegian have taken a big risk by signing up to massive expansion plus a split fleet of Airbuses and 737s - something considered absolutely opposed to a successful low cost model. As I have said previously, they have decided to go for massive expansion directly into the territory of easyJet, Ryanair and Vueling - some might say fools step in where angels fear to tread. You can argue who has the lower costs, but no sensible low cost airline wants to complete directly with another one rather than go for the easy pickings of the legacies. Everyone who goes on Norwegian say it is a great service, and I have no doubt that is the case. Where my doubts lie are in the sustainability of direct competition against far more established carriers who have been able to negotiate better deals at more favourable terms. There is no doubt their crew costs are better due to their policy of employing contractors and non-unionisation. They could prove me wrong, but right now I do not believe that they will have the long-term survivability of Ryanair or easyJet.
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ADM
Quick facts about Norwegian:
Number of aircraft: 87
Number of routes: 413
Number of destinations: 128
Pax 2013: 20.7 million
Pax Jan 2014 1'530,441
Of these 87 aircraft 84 are 737's and another 13 are due this year, two delivered already, plus another 4 787, the reason for ordering both have been explained elsewhere, the Neo has lower fuel burn than the NG the MAX will have lower fuel burn than the Neo and Norwegian can not get more aircraft from either supplier more quickly than going down the dual supply route, plus it screws others up from getting aircraft with lower costs earlier.
The difference in uniform cost will be a 400 or so, but when you wear one and walk past some other airlines crews you know you belong some where that values quality.
Just read the reviews on Skytrax (non long haul) which is very positive and although the reliability issue with the 787 have without doubt hurt, it will recover once the 787 fleet reaches a critical mass, especially if they get hold of the cancelled Lion air order for 5 with delivery due in 2015.
The principal share holder is 67 and can't/won't wait 20 years for it to grow.
The various performance packages on all new build aircraft more than offsets the 1% (if that is what it is, I think it might be higher?) for the hump, and all new aircraft are 500kg lighter due different interior trim anyway.
25m is more than achievable this year, but that still a long way behind easyJet, let alone Ryanair who have out grown easyJet year on year until of late.
Vueling pilot salaries are one reason why IAG have ordered 60 airbus for them to play with, but Norwegian have not been over impressed with the CRM demonstrated by some Spanish applicants, so i don't think you will see wholesale Vueling recruitment in the way that Ryanair pilots are joining Norwegian
In 6 years they plan to be at 220+ aircraft, in the mean time its good to see more job opportunities
Number of aircraft: 87
Number of routes: 413
Number of destinations: 128
Pax 2013: 20.7 million
Pax Jan 2014 1'530,441
Of these 87 aircraft 84 are 737's and another 13 are due this year, two delivered already, plus another 4 787, the reason for ordering both have been explained elsewhere, the Neo has lower fuel burn than the NG the MAX will have lower fuel burn than the Neo and Norwegian can not get more aircraft from either supplier more quickly than going down the dual supply route, plus it screws others up from getting aircraft with lower costs earlier.
The difference in uniform cost will be a 400 or so, but when you wear one and walk past some other airlines crews you know you belong some where that values quality.
Just read the reviews on Skytrax (non long haul) which is very positive and although the reliability issue with the 787 have without doubt hurt, it will recover once the 787 fleet reaches a critical mass, especially if they get hold of the cancelled Lion air order for 5 with delivery due in 2015.
The principal share holder is 67 and can't/won't wait 20 years for it to grow.
The various performance packages on all new build aircraft more than offsets the 1% (if that is what it is, I think it might be higher?) for the hump, and all new aircraft are 500kg lighter due different interior trim anyway.
25m is more than achievable this year, but that still a long way behind easyJet, let alone Ryanair who have out grown easyJet year on year until of late.
Vueling pilot salaries are one reason why IAG have ordered 60 airbus for them to play with, but Norwegian have not been over impressed with the CRM demonstrated by some Spanish applicants, so i don't think you will see wholesale Vueling recruitment in the way that Ryanair pilots are joining Norwegian
In 6 years they plan to be at 220+ aircraft, in the mean time its good to see more job opportunities
SR71. So even if you reckon their smart uniforms will only account for persuading 1% of their punters they're a better outfit than EZY, they're still generating 20% more revenue per flight for an equal ticket price.
Are they?
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Kick the tyres
I doubt if You will get an answer to the cost per seat mile from anyone NAS undoubtedly know this down to the last decimal point..... as for EZY my experience indicates they are unable to count the number of seats on an aircraft to sell !
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kick the tires - the operating costs of an easyJet A319 are substantially lower, but of course they take less punters. Without wishing to ignite the Airbus v Boeing debate, both companies would claim their operating costs are less when comparing a 320 to a 738. Even more difficult to know the truth over are the costs of operating a 737 Max v the A320NEO. Norwegian have taken the decision to hedge their bets and do both - not sure that has efficiency written on it, but that is the game plan. I accept the production slot argument (the same one that made easyJet by A319s instead of A320s). Nonetheless, it is simply not low cost 'best practice' to run two fleets with all the duplication of effort that entails, not to mention the reduction of flexibility in terms of cross utilisation of crews. Anyway, that is their decision, and we will see who is right.
LNIDA
Thanks for that info. The 738 figures I quoted I think are actually correct as the rest are 300s or similar. I am not aware of any Airbus recruitment being started by them yet, but however they do it they will have to attract TREs and the like - my view is that without a substantial inducement that will not happen. I am not planning to go there, but any upwards pressure on salaries is good news for us all. The big 'boom or bust' decision by Norwegian is to reach 220+ aircraft in 6 years. That will prove to be either amazingly insightful or a complete disaster - I am not at all sure it will be a smart move but we shall see. Low cost airlines run on amazingly tight margins and even the decision to de-ice can destroy the profit for a flight. Therefore 1% fuel burns, wi-fi, video on demand etc is all added cost that is again totally opposed to the low cost traditional model. Have Norwegian got it right? I personally do not think so, but I may yet be proven wrong. There is no doubt they are making a big splash but, being a cautious individual, I would not be betting my house on their ultimate success.
LNIDA
Thanks for that info. The 738 figures I quoted I think are actually correct as the rest are 300s or similar. I am not aware of any Airbus recruitment being started by them yet, but however they do it they will have to attract TREs and the like - my view is that without a substantial inducement that will not happen. I am not planning to go there, but any upwards pressure on salaries is good news for us all. The big 'boom or bust' decision by Norwegian is to reach 220+ aircraft in 6 years. That will prove to be either amazingly insightful or a complete disaster - I am not at all sure it will be a smart move but we shall see. Low cost airlines run on amazingly tight margins and even the decision to de-ice can destroy the profit for a flight. Therefore 1% fuel burns, wi-fi, video on demand etc is all added cost that is again totally opposed to the low cost traditional model. Have Norwegian got it right? I personally do not think so, but I may yet be proven wrong. There is no doubt they are making a big splash but, being a cautious individual, I would not be betting my house on their ultimate success.
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Norwegian have to succeed
The Ryanair and Easyjet led quest to minimise costs as far as possible including the secondary action of flooding the market with as some one stated "200 hour wonder kids" for the good of the industry it has to end.
Quoting the minutiae if 1% gains due to wifi humps on fuselages et al - Wake up and smell the coffee. Ryanair and Easyjet in the bulk of Europe and Wizz air in Eastern Europe are actually driving the whole industry downwards forcing high quality operators to follow suit simply to stay in business.
I'm sure some of the posters on here wouldn't be so complimentary should they be unfortunate to lose their job. And finding it incredibly difficult to secure work even with 1000s of hours experience on type whilst witnessing wave after wave of the so called "200 hour wonder kids" been pushed into the bottom of the structure. It's immoral the only winners are the accountants at the locos and the shareholders at one or two "linked training providers"
Norwegian appear to be lining up to inject some much needed humility and respect back into the mix.
It's already rubbed off on Michael OLeary long may it continue. Norwegians success over the next few years are absolutely critical
Norwegian seem to view the loco operation with much higher regard for a whole raft of areas and not just cost.
Airline pilots wearing plastic coats and anoraks... Whatever next donkey jackets with orange trim or a yellow harp in the back?
The Ryanair and Easyjet led quest to minimise costs as far as possible including the secondary action of flooding the market with as some one stated "200 hour wonder kids" for the good of the industry it has to end.
Quoting the minutiae if 1% gains due to wifi humps on fuselages et al - Wake up and smell the coffee. Ryanair and Easyjet in the bulk of Europe and Wizz air in Eastern Europe are actually driving the whole industry downwards forcing high quality operators to follow suit simply to stay in business.
I'm sure some of the posters on here wouldn't be so complimentary should they be unfortunate to lose their job. And finding it incredibly difficult to secure work even with 1000s of hours experience on type whilst witnessing wave after wave of the so called "200 hour wonder kids" been pushed into the bottom of the structure. It's immoral the only winners are the accountants at the locos and the shareholders at one or two "linked training providers"
Norwegian appear to be lining up to inject some much needed humility and respect back into the mix.
It's already rubbed off on Michael OLeary long may it continue. Norwegians success over the next few years are absolutely critical
Norwegian seem to view the loco operation with much higher regard for a whole raft of areas and not just cost.
Airline pilots wearing plastic coats and anoraks... Whatever next donkey jackets with orange trim or a yellow harp in the back?
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The Ryanair and Easyjet led quest to minimise costs as far as possible including the secondary action of flooding the market with as some one stated "200 hour wonder kids" for the good of the industry it has to end.
I fail to see how RYR and EZY are 'flooding' a market with 200 boys and girls... Surely it's absorbing said market which already exists... largely due to flight schools with slick marketing who tell the kids they'll walk straight into [Insert national carrier here]
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A d M you don't think between all the crews in Norwegian it might be possible there are TRI and TRE s that maybe just maybe flew other aircraft before they came to NAS? And that maybe just maybe some of them where flying airbus or even TRE s on Airbus before? I know it seems out there but who knows?
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If you fail to see it try looking a little harder. It isn't difficult to see tiempoby
Two schools in particular with more than just slick marketing ploy in operation
Ryanair have chosen to ignore the health of the industry as a whole something which Norwegian with their approach don't appear to wish to follow. Easyjet have followed Ryanair down this ridiculous path.
While Ryanair and Easyjet. And Wizz air for that matter continue to pump "200 hour wonder kids" into an industry while there are many experienced guys either out of work or for some carrier based in Outer Mongolia there is no hope for the industry. Good for the economics of the particular operator on a short to medium term basis. Bad for the industry as a whole long term.
Most, if not al Flight training schools do tell cadets what they want to hear. But this isn't the danger area, nor for that matter is P2F which actually doesn't appear to exist in UK since about 2009.
A couple of "flight training organisations" they believe they supply a good quality "product" (they were called cadets people or pilots long ago) are the ones in reference in this thread. It is time a few feathers were ruffled. MOL has spotted the threat from Norwegian so that in its self can't be a bad thing. A change is definitely required. No more no less. The current direction is dire.
Two schools in particular with more than just slick marketing ploy in operation
Ryanair have chosen to ignore the health of the industry as a whole something which Norwegian with their approach don't appear to wish to follow. Easyjet have followed Ryanair down this ridiculous path.
While Ryanair and Easyjet. And Wizz air for that matter continue to pump "200 hour wonder kids" into an industry while there are many experienced guys either out of work or for some carrier based in Outer Mongolia there is no hope for the industry. Good for the economics of the particular operator on a short to medium term basis. Bad for the industry as a whole long term.
Most, if not al Flight training schools do tell cadets what they want to hear. But this isn't the danger area, nor for that matter is P2F which actually doesn't appear to exist in UK since about 2009.
A couple of "flight training organisations" they believe they supply a good quality "product" (they were called cadets people or pilots long ago) are the ones in reference in this thread. It is time a few feathers were ruffled. MOL has spotted the threat from Norwegian so that in its self can't be a bad thing. A change is definitely required. No more no less. The current direction is dire.
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Frankly, we don't want or need Sleazy TRE's... Especially if they're gonna instigate/participate in the 'gang-rape' of our T&C's and of 200 hour cadets, with those vultures at CTC.
There's a lot of experienced guys at NAS, and amazingly, some have even flown the scarebus too. Who'd of thought it!
There's a lot of experienced guys at NAS, and amazingly, some have even flown the scarebus too. Who'd of thought it!
When's NAS DEC onto the A320 likely to start?
My CV: EASA ATPL: 25,000 hours total. 9,000 hours P1 A320 & current. 5,000 hours P1 B737. 5,000 hours P1 BAe 146. 5,000 hours P1 F27 etc.
No desire to be Based in LGW thanks
My CV: EASA ATPL: 25,000 hours total. 9,000 hours P1 A320 & current. 5,000 hours P1 B737. 5,000 hours P1 BAe 146. 5,000 hours P1 F27 etc.
No desire to be Based in LGW thanks
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Ryanair have done a fantastic job of training all their wonderful type rated 738 pilots, they are a breeze to fly with, very professional and extremely well trained.
They know that the grass is greener, but appreciate it.
If the scare bus comes along, then i have no doubt that we will have plenty of applicants from across the globe, including easyJet pilots, perhaps not as many as Ryanair pilots but more than enough, if you work for easy jet and spend the amount of time that ADM spends on what is a Norwegian thread, then you are either worried or interested, otherwise why bother, i don't give a FF what easyJet are up to??
They know that the grass is greener, but appreciate it.
If the scare bus comes along, then i have no doubt that we will have plenty of applicants from across the globe, including easyJet pilots, perhaps not as many as Ryanair pilots but more than enough, if you work for easy jet and spend the amount of time that ADM spends on what is a Norwegian thread, then you are either worried or interested, otherwise why bother, i don't give a FF what easyJet are up to??
Last edited by LNIDA; 11th Feb 2014 at 09:39.
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The Crusaders are back!
Dear all.
John Smith mentioned that the management of FR at the end of the day only answer to the shareholders and the manegment of the money.
Wrong.
As an former Postholder I was ultimatly accountable to the local CAA , the Board of Directors and the Company finaly. As Postholder Head of Training.
Diffrent century, same general rules, intension of the law! .?
Now for Norwegian.
For arguments , lets forget Long Haul,: Boom or Bust.
Norwegian is going to kill FR, why , Fr are an Irish born funded by us owners subridised by Seatle and so scaread they do not even have row 13 in the cabin.
It is a pure gamble , a bet, and the inhumane owners and managment are so scared of Murpey they do not even have a seatrow 13,,, children.
To them its all a game,
Nevertheless, Bjørn is in town.
The Polar Bear, Yes he is cosy, But. :...
He is All Buisness: Former Norwegian Paratrooper ,
F 5 and F 104 fighter pilot
norways fastest law Degree.
Partner in Law firm in Oslo ,spesialicing in merchant marine law, ( yes we stil are the fifth biggest in the world)
Bjørn Kjos , Norwegians owner and President is going to employ some French armory to take back what is ours.
We founded Dublin, and we shall close it. Normandy is named after ,,, .
Stanford Bridge was a blunder, .
40 % of all oil inported to the UK in 1939 to 1940 was on Norwegian keel.
We are comming to claim our right. With a super product and Airbus at our side. Merchants we allways , good sailors we allways find.
John Smith mentioned that the management of FR at the end of the day only answer to the shareholders and the manegment of the money.
Wrong.
As an former Postholder I was ultimatly accountable to the local CAA , the Board of Directors and the Company finaly. As Postholder Head of Training.
Diffrent century, same general rules, intension of the law! .?
Now for Norwegian.
For arguments , lets forget Long Haul,: Boom or Bust.
Norwegian is going to kill FR, why , Fr are an Irish born
funded by us owners subridised by Seatle and so scaread they do not even have row 13 in the cabin.It is a pure gamble , a bet, and the inhumane owners and managment are so scared of Murpey they do not even have a seatrow 13,,, children.
To them its all a game,
Nevertheless, Bjørn is in town.
The Polar Bear, Yes he is cosy, But. :...
He is All Buisness: Former Norwegian Paratrooper ,
F 5 and F 104 fighter pilot
norways fastest law Degree.
Partner in Law firm in Oslo ,spesialicing in merchant marine law, ( yes we stil are the fifth biggest in the world)
Bjørn Kjos , Norwegians owner and President is going to employ some French armory to take back what is ours.
We founded Dublin, and we shall close it. Normandy is named after ,,, .
Stanford Bridge was a blunder, .
40 % of all oil inported to the UK in 1939 to 1940 was on Norwegian keel.
We are comming to claim our right. With a super product and Airbus at our side. Merchants we allways , good sailors we allways find.
Thanks A & C, I can't wait. I've flown as a pax on NAS and was very impressed, no endless condescending PRAMs, no hard sell, nice interior, good wi-fi connection en-route.
Kick the Tires, unless you've got webbed feet, I can't see the attraction of operating out of the UK. Nos vemos pronto de nuevo en la soleada Espana .
Kick the Tires, unless you've got webbed feet, I can't see the attraction of operating out of the UK. Nos vemos pronto de nuevo en la soleada Espana
.