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Old 9th Feb 2014, 16:15
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Alexander de Meerkat
 
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SR71 - there is no doubt that a 738 is a good size, but the only thing that matters is the cost/seat. When easyJet bought the A319 more than 10 years ago it was a deal they could not say no to. The future of easyJet is the A320 (180 seats) and the A319 (156 seats) will gradually disappear. The reason Ryanair have maintained their No 1 position at taking the most passenger is having a 189-seater aircraft, when for years easyJet had a 156-seater as competition. Although I always doubted the wisdom of the A319 (Hamburg-built), at the time the order was made there were no production line slots available for the A320 (Toulouse-built). Therefore easyJet got a fantastic deal, which at the time was the best in Airbus's history. I am told this latest deal is actually an even better one, although the details are very secretive, as you might expect. Norwegian currently have 73 738's (186/189-seater) and in Nov 13 easyJet had 64 A320s, but that changes month by month in favour of more A320s. Norwegian have taken a big risk by signing up to massive expansion plus a split fleet of Airbuses and 737s - something considered absolutely opposed to a successful low cost model. As I have said previously, they have decided to go for massive expansion directly into the territory of easyJet, Ryanair and Vueling - some might say fools step in where angels fear to tread. You can argue who has the lower costs, but no sensible low cost airline wants to complete directly with another one rather than go for the easy pickings of the legacies. Everyone who goes on Norwegian say it is a great service, and I have no doubt that is the case. Where my doubts lie are in the sustainability of direct competition against far more established carriers who have been able to negotiate better deals at more favourable terms. There is no doubt their crew costs are better due to their policy of employing contractors and non-unionisation. They could prove me wrong, but right now I do not believe that they will have the long-term survivability of Ryanair or easyJet.
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