BA pilot voluntary redundancy

[yotty]

Well there will be a few less in APS/NAPS and more in the DC scheme which will be a bonus...

[Rainboe]

A lot of dodgy thinking there!

The economy probably will recover(not definately as the question of the 80% of GDP national debt still remains unanswered)

Have you seen other recessions? They all recover- from 6 moths to 10 years, but they all recover.

You know little about commercial life! Do you believe companies can artificially restrict growth just in caase a recession should start? You thin BA is in trouble? Look at the 90% of airlines and businesses in a worse position! Recessions are a natural part of a business cycle. They are the times when companies trim themselves and aim for better productivity and efficiency. Dare one say over a lifetime, at least one major recession is necessary- it's actually a healthy thing. Fat, inefficient and complacent companies and whole industries are taken out allowing better companies more room for expansion and development. Look at British and US car industries, British coal and shipbuilding.

[oopspff7]

From 6 moths
You thin BA

[JW411]

I suspect he had just got back from the pub when he wrote that. It is always a good idea to burst into print when you are thinking straight.

[757_Driver]

actually i hadn't just got back from the pub, and i know alot about commercial life - i haven't spent my whole life at the front of an aircraft, so why don't you think before you throw insults and actually read what I wrote.
I did not suggest the BA, nor anyone else should have restricted their expansion 'just in case'. Of course they had to react to the market, but the plain fact of the matter is that the market was a bubble, not part of the normal economic cycle and they are now too 'fat' for the current and ongoing market, hence the need to react to the current market in a different way. Of course the fact that BA are considerably more effiicient than many other companies and the airlines industry as a whole is also more efficient than alot of industries means that this is merely a bit of pain rather than fatal.

All recessions recover? hmmm, suggest you go and ask the Japanese what they think about that one? or any Germans born in the 20's and 30's just to cite 2 examples.
The Japanese stock market is still less than 30% of where it was 25 years ago - some recovery!
Of course the UK will probably recover - but a recovery that takes 30 years, whilst technically a recovery is no use to me! There is still considerable debate amongst those that know what they are talking about (IMF, world banks etc) about wether the UK will really recover from this recession or wether the economy will stabalise at a different (lower) level of equilibrium further down the global league table, so I wouldn't go around waving the flags just yet

[Carnage Matey!]

What I mean is that BA and every other company on the planet has recruited, expanded and written their business models to compete in a market that was a bubble, and as such was entirely false

The flaw in your analysis is your assumption that BA could expand in an almost unrestricted fashion like other airlines. BA, unlike those airlines, is slot constrained at LHR and it's year on year growth was forecast at something like 2% prior to this recession. Thats hardly bubble expansion by any measure. Equally, BA are barely running any surplus in pilot numbers and the only reason they are likely to see one soon is because the EU are shifting the rules and allowing them to keep the slots without flying them.

[Skylion]

BA have in fact expanded very little over the past ten years. Until the recent delivery of a new 777-200ER there had been no new longhaul aircraft for ten years,- just a very few conversions of 767s from short haul to long haul. For most of the good years they were undersupplying their potential market,- a quite extraordinary situation which has allowed others to grow on business they chose not to provide for.
Amongst their current problems, two in particular relate to capacity and both have their roots in the Ayling era.
Firstly an overwhelmingly high percentage of their long haul production is on trans-Atlantic routes so they are heavily exposed to downturns on those. With the weakened pound on this side of the pond and the downturn in business ex the USA they therefore have a problem. Over the last decade or so they have sharply reduced their range of Asian and Australian destinations, deleting Osaka, Nagoya, Seoul, Taipei, Manila, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore and have pulled out of all of Australia except Sydney and reduced their capacity to Bangkok. This is despite much of Asia having been the fastest growing market.
Secondly, again about 10 years ago it was decided to dump as much as possible of the Economy Class low yield market in favour of much expanded business class cabins. The current market is trading down from the front of the aircraft to the back so they can't fill their premium seats and haven't got the capacity "down the back" to make up for it. Short term reconfiguration just isnt possible in these days of high tech premium seating which is virtually built into the aircraft and the lead time on large numbers of new Economy seats is also lengthy.
Both things stem from them having decided not to spread their long haul risk over both geography and classes of business and too many eggs have gone into single baskets . They took an enormous gamble by concentrating on the Atlantic and premium business, both of which are currently taking the biggest hits. Low yield business they have dumped has also fuelled the growth of their competitors who have used it to build both points served and frequencies which have in turn made these competitors more appealing to the high yield business traffic and some of this will have come from BA .For a long time there has been a serious weakness in their global strategic understanding and planning.

[bs13]

Just look at recent BA offers

It's enought to look at the recent BA offers to see what financial dire straits they found themselves in - for example 2-for-1 in club world on any long-haul originating in the UK. As they advertised themselvels - this is for the first time ever.
This would also confirm what Skylion is talking about re: business class concentrated a/c configuration - which is no longer selling.

[ETOPS]

Skylion

Over the last decade or so they have sharply reduced their range of Asian and Australian destinations, deleting Osaka, Nagoya, Seoul, Taipei, Manila, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore

Nearly correct - SIN still on the network, just operated there with a full load.

[Tandemrotor]

What I mean is that BA and every other company on the planet has recruited, expanded and written their business models to compete in a market that was a bubble, and as such was entirely false

Just a quickie for you 757_Driver:

If your assertion is correct, how do you explain that BA employ almost exactly the same number of pilots as they did 10 years ago? I suggest you do a little more research before pontificating.

bs13:

2-for-1 in club world on any long-haul originating in the UK. As they advertised themselvels - this is for the first time ever

Don't you remember 'The World's Greatest Giveaway'?

[kj990]

Just a quickie for you 757_Driver:

If your assertion is correct, how do you explain that BA employ almost exactly the same number of pilots as they did 10 years ago? I suggest you do a little more research before pontificating.

By working twice as hard?

[Clandestino]

And perchance getting twice bigger pay for twice more work?




I tought so.

[Tandemrotor]

Try doing just a little more research, before making yourselves look stupid!

[bs13]

Don't you remember 'The World's Greatest Giveaway'?

no I don't - please remind me .
BA must have forgotten too as they promote it as "first ever": BA launches two-for-one biz flight offer-01 May, 2009

[Skylion]

ETOPS -Apologies. I meant of course Jakarta. Singapore is very much still on the network