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AF 447 Thread No. 10

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AF 447 Thread No. 10

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Old 8th Mar 2013, 01:41
  #901 (permalink)  
 
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Both pilots in the cockpit were incompetent in my opinion. The captain came up too late to save the disaster. He was taking his required break. He, in my opinion, would not have let this happen. When he saw what was happening he had never seen this before.
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Old 8th Mar 2013, 07:02
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Lyman, entropy is everywhere...
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 04:04
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Sorry, if I interrupt all the pro's here, but there is one question which I wanted to ask for ages:

When captain entered the flight deck wouldn't be an appropriate action to ask kindly Bonin to leave the seat and take over the controls? Would he save the day?
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 06:09
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When captain entered the flight deck wouldn't be an appropriate action to ask kindly Bonin to leave the seat and take over the controls? Would he save the day?
Where he was seated the captain had a a panoramic view of all the instruments
In the CVR .. one answer of the captain is
"I don't know"
I do not think it would change something if the captain had taken the place of Bonin when he arrived in the cockpit
Amazing .. but that day three experimented pilots had a bad day at the same place and the same time
A statistical challenge ?
Not so much
Statistics prove that unfortunately this happens often

Last edited by jcjeant; 9th Mar 2013 at 06:15.
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 10:13
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Originally Posted by Pali
When captain entered the flight deck wouldn't be an appropriate action to ask kindly Bonin to leave the seat and take over the controls? Would he save the day?
Looking at all the information we have there is no serious indication any one of the three understood their real problem (i.e. being stalled) which would have been the prerequisite for any corrctive action. Therefore, although we will never know for sure, it is pretty safe to assume it wouldn't have made much of a difference at that point.
That said there is a minimal chance that when seeing the feedback (behaviour of aircraft vs input) to control inputs made by himself, or better lack thereof, he might have had a better chance to identify they were in a developped stall.
But being where we are now that is a moot point.
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 12:14
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Probably yes, just I wonder if captain would pull the way as FO did. But considering the trimmed stabiliser in the position all the way NU it is questionable if captain would have a chance to figure out what to do.

My question is also aimed at usual practice in such cases when senior officer bypasses a junior in an emergency. I am a consultant partly involved into emergency and safety procedures and senior taking over control is one of the paramount rules in almost every industry. So I was wondering if in aviation there is a similar concept. I remember Sullenberger took over really fast after the Flight 1549 went into trouble although I understand he WAS already seated in captain's position.
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 12:27
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The senior in the cockpit of the AF447 when AP disconnected was Robert
He had the possibility to tell "my aircraft"
Again dunno if this had made a difference ...
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 20:01
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Originally Posted by Pali
Sorry, if I interrupt all the pro's here, but there is one question which I wanted to ask for ages:

When captain entered the flight deck wouldn't be an appropriate action to ask kindly Bonin to leave the seat and take over the controls? Would he save the day?
Assuming that he would take over, I think the answer is yes. The pilot flying apparently didn't relinquish the controls to the PNF, I have to assume that he would have done so had the Captain been in the Captains seat and asserted his control.

I will also assume that the Captain would have reverted to basic instrument flight skills once in his seat. Whether or not he had the altitude required to recover is the subject of extensive discussion on previous strings on this topic.

Last edited by TTex600; 9th Mar 2013 at 20:03.
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 22:07
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Originally Posted by TT
I will also assume that the Captain would have reverted to basic instrument flight skills once in his seat.
Would those skills have resulted in push or in pull?
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Old 9th Mar 2013, 23:32
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Why would the captain take the RHS ???
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Old 10th Mar 2013, 00:08
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The captain had no time to deal with the upset. He wouldn't have done what they did but came in too late to help. He was required because of rest requirements for their flight to take a break. The junior guys screwed it all up. The captain would have handled it just fine.
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Old 10th Mar 2013, 00:45
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Now is not the time to be modest, bubbers, you have walked up a steep aisle to the door, it is open, and you stride in. You instantly grok the attitude, ten degrees NU, and you proclaim, "Mon dieu mon petit chou, you have STALLED our cherie"....

You would briskly tapout the LHS, settle in, belt up, and look at the PF's SS. "MERDE", "Have you no sense? Look at vario, ALTI, and Attitude!"

"Controls to left, Follow me through...." As you briskly force the SS forward to the stop, you sense an immediate lessening of the chaotic airstream, and you say, "The Nose Down, the wings must be unloaded..." "Take notes, paduan, this may be the only time you see such heroism."

As the Pitch lowers, speed increases, and the noise changes character, not quiter, but less chaotic, you are re-acquiring streamlines, and losing the rumble of the STALL....

You carefully meter the need for back pressure, as your lift is now sufficient to support the a/c, and level flight can be attained, carefully, not too fast, one STALL per leg is sufficient, Non?

Regaining the correct altitude, you give control back to the FO, slowly, casually, you light a Gauloises, and smell the tobacco as it wafts up your Gallic Nose.

"Call Miriam, Pierre, I would like an espresso, two twists."

Anyone who can master the short final at Tegucigalpa can most definitely recover a STALL at 30,000 feet, Non?
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Old 10th Mar 2013, 01:13
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That was funny. Comparing a Tegucigalpa Honduras approach to crossing the Atlantic. It is quite amusing but pointless.

Both take experienced pilots, but are not what we want our 200 hr wonders to encounter. They need to build experience, not just pushing buttons, but flying the aircraft. Eventually they may be competent to fly if automation fails. Or maybe not.
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Old 10th Mar 2013, 22:56
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As before, I would like to draw attention to the exchange between Captain DuBois, and Bonin, as regards: "Try Climb"...."But I have held aft stick for some time now."

The general conclusion is that Captain cannot see the Stick, and assumes Bonin has Nose Down, input....

It does not matter what Captain sees, because he suggests CLIMB. But he can see the AI, very nose UP. Why would he suggest CLIMB with a NOSE UP on the dial?


Because he assumes Bonin is pushing NOSEDOWN. If he thought the controls were OK, he would command BONIN to push NOSE DOWN, to lower the NOSE. Are we to believe he has not commanded NOSE DOWN until twenty seconds before impact? And not satisfied himself it is not working?

So, he commands NOSE UP? Neither PILOT is happy with the controls' effects, Captain, because he commands NOSE UP with AI full of blue, (supposedly) and Bonin, because he HAS ALREADY TRIED NOSE DOWN, and it has no effect.

He already attempted NOSE UP, as a solution to non working elevators, "But I have tried (am trying) that".

These are two desperate pilots attempting to figure out INOP or problematic controls.

Think about what they have said, as the CVR explains..... Neither pilot can figure out the Pitch, BUT THEY BOTH KNOW IT IS EXCESSIVELY HIGH.

BONIN has tried both NU AND ND, Captain wants to "TRY NU" ("Try Climbing").
At 10000 fpm descent with the gauge all blue? Don't you believe it. He is satisfied the controls are NOT WORKING.

WHY? TO GET THE NOSE DOWN WITH AN INEFFECTIVE CONTROL and unresponsive A/C....

He is thinking, STUCK elevators, or reversed input.

It is IMPOSSIBLE that these two are on different pages, they both know there is a problem, both have tried conformed, and reverse control positions....

Robert gives up too quickly on the altitude (climb) problem. Or does he? He does not take control, is he satisfied that the controls are INOP? Bonin: "We have no control of the airplane..." He obviously is satisfied the controls are ineffective. ARE THEY? Is Bonin referring to loss of control BEFORE THE CLIMB? Would he not brief the Captain on the earliest onset of problem? THE CLIMB?

Last edited by Lyman; 10th Mar 2013 at 23:09.
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Old 11th Mar 2013, 15:11
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Lyman, I presume that by "ineffective control" you allude to the fact that after a stall control effectiveness isn't what it is while flying.

From what I have seen of the FDR traces, at those times where the SS was moved forward, the attitude (and elevator command) changed toward more "down" but what does not seem to have happened was s sustained and patient nose down input when it was needed. Rate damping and control responsiveness in big jets has been discussed at some length in various previous threads on this topid.

I am a bit confused at your comment on ineffective controls. The SS traces showed me that Bonin tried to get the nose up, and to keep the nose up, and the nose stayed up.
In that regard, the controls were indeed effective.

I realize there are two related elements to the rate of response of nose position inputs: elevator command and THS trim both being part of the package in smoothly changing pitch attitude, and holding it.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 11th Mar 2013 at 15:13.
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Old 11th Mar 2013, 16:18
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The upshot is that the Captain would suggest "TRY CLIMBING" while the NOSE was so far up in the air.....

That was after an extended period in a very aggravated STALL. The entire conclusion of BEA depends on this.....That it would somehow seem acceptable to the pilot community that the Captain chose ONE TIME to make a suggestion, as to PITCH, and that one instance after completely rejecting what the instruments were indicating? He then relents, and says nothing more?

He heard the STALL warning upon entering the cockpit, and after. Robert? Bonin? DuBois? All three mum as to Stall, and to the need to drop the nose.

The STALL WARN quits below 60 knots, that was attained briefly, but all the way down there was forward speed in excess of 60.

The preponderance of evidence released supports a ludicrous conclusion. There is much evidence that has not been released.

I have made my call.

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Old 11th Mar 2013, 18:19
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Originally Posted by Pali
When captain entered the flight deck wouldn't be an appropriate action to ask kindly Bonin to leave the seat and take over the controls? Would he save the day?
As said earlier, when the captain enters the flight deck, he has clearly eared that the STALL warning has just stopped, so for him the worst is behind as the appropriate corrective actions have obviously been taken by the crew in place.
The STALL warning logic has just been playing a trick on him and his ability to rapidly and correctly apprehend the situation is greatly undermined.

Originally Posted by Lyman
These are two desperate pilots attempting to figure out INOP or problematic controls.
To the point that they will voluntary switch off 2 FCC in an attempt to regain control ...

The Airbus sidestick concept made their life miserable as no PNF(s) is able to directly witness what kind of inputs are applied on the sidestick(s), which contributes to this elusive loss of faith in the overall flight control system.
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Old 11th Mar 2013, 18:20
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Lyman,

I wonder if you could help me find the captain suggesting "TRY CLIMBING" in the CVR transcript?
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Old 11th Mar 2013, 18:29
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Sorry, from memory, it was Robert, PNF who says "climb, then".

Captain says, "no, do not climb"? Then Robert, "then go down"? Then Bonin, "but i have been pulling" etc....?

My very bad...

BUT. They ALL know the NOSE is way UP. And NO ONE is thinking or saying, "PUSH FORWARD, and HOLD IT THERE"

It is not believable, and why I believe the accounts are "managed"

Last edited by Lyman; 11th Mar 2013 at 18:34.
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Old 11th Mar 2013, 20:12
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the accounts are "managed"

Here we are again !
The BEA, Airbus, Air France, the French government, etc. are engaged in delictuous activities to rob the unsuspecting public of the truth !!!!!

And of course all these organizations / countries are part of the conspiracy
BEA final report page 19
In accordance with the provisions of Annex 13, Brazilian, American, British, German
and Senegalese accredited representatives were associated with the investigation
as the State of the engine manufacturer (NTSB) and because they were able to
supply essential information to the investigation (CENIPA, ANAC) or because they
provided assistance in the sea search phases (AAIB, BFU). The following countries
also nominated observers as some of their citizens were among the victims:
ˆˆ China,
ˆˆ Hungary,
ˆˆ Ireland,
ˆˆ Italy,
ˆˆ Korea,
ˆˆ Lebanon,
ˆˆ Morocco,
ˆˆ Norway,
ˆˆ Russia,
ˆˆ Switzerland.
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