AF 447 Search to resume
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BOAC; Chris Scott;
Lets say I'm just the messenger. Thank the BEA for their consideration in keeping everyone informed of this operation. They have nothing to hide, rather they seek the hidden!
Anyway, thanks should go to the BEA media team on the "Seabed Worker" for their professional and excellently presented work.
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Note: I'm in the process of fixing the corrupt wmv video file in post #681, and will re-post the link shortly.
mm43
Lets say I'm just the messenger. Thank the BEA for their consideration in keeping everyone informed of this operation. They have nothing to hide, rather they seek the hidden!
Anyway, thanks should go to the BEA media team on the "Seabed Worker" for their professional and excellently presented work.
-------------
Note: I'm in the process of fixing the corrupt wmv video file in post #681, and will re-post the link shortly.
mm43
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As promised a couple of days ago, I have updated a graphic to show the Phase 3 search area.
A description of the graphic will be found below it.
The blue and red bordered rectangle is about 36 x 24NM, and the area contained within the blue borders (including the circle segment) is 679NM^2 or 2,323km^2. Within that rectangle, the right-hand area was given a precursory visit during Phase 2 and is currently being searched by the Orion side-scan sonar being towed by the "Anne Candies". The center section is being searched by 3 Remus AUV's operated from the "Seabed Worker" and the left section and the cyan bordered area outside of it is yet to be visited.
References to tracks, times, V/S and body positions are mine, though originally derived from data released by the BEA. The red triangle showing the OSCAR/NOAA back-tracked position for the V/S is also mine, and is not related to any specific data released by the BEA.
mm43
A description of the graphic will be found below it.
The blue and red bordered rectangle is about 36 x 24NM, and the area contained within the blue borders (including the circle segment) is 679NM^2 or 2,323km^2. Within that rectangle, the right-hand area was given a precursory visit during Phase 2 and is currently being searched by the Orion side-scan sonar being towed by the "Anne Candies". The center section is being searched by 3 Remus AUV's operated from the "Seabed Worker" and the left section and the cyan bordered area outside of it is yet to be visited.
References to tracks, times, V/S and body positions are mine, though originally derived from data released by the BEA. The red triangle showing the OSCAR/NOAA back-tracked position for the V/S is also mine, and is not related to any specific data released by the BEA.
mm43
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mm43, my thanks for your informative messaging, too.
If your current-derived position of the vertical stabiliser (I presume you mean where it suggests it most likely entered the water first) is anything like correct, does it not suggest that the search zone should include that position and its surrounding area, rather than only looking North East of there?
Just a bit puzzled.
Chris N
If your current-derived position of the vertical stabiliser (I presume you mean where it suggests it most likely entered the water first) is anything like correct, does it not suggest that the search zone should include that position and its surrounding area, rather than only looking North East of there?
Just a bit puzzled.
Chris N
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ChrisN;
Terminology can be a killer!
By my current derived position I wasn't referring to time, but rather to drift, i.e. surface currents comprising (OSCAR/NOAA) and leeway (QuikSCAT 10m winds) satellite data. The problem all along has been that everyone and their dog have had a go at determining where the aircraft crashed, and my effort of August/September 2009 is just one of those dogs. Météo France originally calculated a position for the V/S even further to the west, but a committee decision based on the interpretation of computer derived data models and the best input that the BEA could obtain, has resulted in the Phase 3 search area prescribed.
A graphic produced by the BEA in their Interim Report No.2 provides the range of back-tracked positions for the Vertical Stabilizer or bodies produced by the entities named. Anything in red (V/S) or yellow has been added by me.
So, nothing has changed since day one of this saga. The aircraft crashed in a part of the Equatorial North Atlantic which is not only deep, but is well known for its often strong and fickle surface currents. The present search procedure using the most sophisticated equipment available, will in the course of "mowing the lawn" find the proverbial "needle in the haystack".
Finally, there would be no point in determining a back-tracked position for the V/S, if the evidence revealed to date didn't confirm it was attached to the a/c at point of impact.
mm43
Terminology can be a killer!
By my current derived position I wasn't referring to time, but rather to drift, i.e. surface currents comprising (OSCAR/NOAA) and leeway (QuikSCAT 10m winds) satellite data. The problem all along has been that everyone and their dog have had a go at determining where the aircraft crashed, and my effort of August/September 2009 is just one of those dogs. Météo France originally calculated a position for the V/S even further to the west, but a committee decision based on the interpretation of computer derived data models and the best input that the BEA could obtain, has resulted in the Phase 3 search area prescribed.
A graphic produced by the BEA in their Interim Report No.2 provides the range of back-tracked positions for the Vertical Stabilizer or bodies produced by the entities named. Anything in red (V/S) or yellow has been added by me.
So, nothing has changed since day one of this saga. The aircraft crashed in a part of the Equatorial North Atlantic which is not only deep, but is well known for its often strong and fickle surface currents. The present search procedure using the most sophisticated equipment available, will in the course of "mowing the lawn" find the proverbial "needle in the haystack".
Finally, there would be no point in determining a back-tracked position for the V/S, if the evidence revealed to date didn't confirm it was attached to the a/c at point of impact.
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 11th Apr 2010 at 00:27. Reason: added last para
mm43,
As I continue to glance from one graphic to the other (from a short-lived post of his, think HN39 may also be finding it tough
), I notice that the graticule of Lat/Long you (?) have recently superimposed on the original one, in #685, is calibrated in decimals of degrees.
This means that, for example, your own back-tracked position for the impact point of the vertical stabiliser is shown as approximately N03.2/W030.9, which is the equivalent of the more conventional N03°12·3'/W030°54·1' shown on the latest chart. Hope this may help someone.
I'm also a bit confused about the significance of the large green rectangle in the middle of the Nav Wng Area.
It seems that the search is starting in the North – which happens to be nearer the area where the wreckage was found – and, if that produces nothing, will work its way to more promising areas further south and east?
Chris
As I continue to glance from one graphic to the other (from a short-lived post of his, think HN39 may also be finding it tough
), I notice that the graticule of Lat/Long you (?) have recently superimposed on the original one, in #685, is calibrated in decimals of degrees.This means that, for example, your own back-tracked position for the impact point of the vertical stabiliser is shown as approximately N03.2/W030.9, which is the equivalent of the more conventional N03°12·3'/W030°54·1' shown on the latest chart. Hope this may help someone.
I'm also a bit confused about the significance of the large green rectangle in the middle of the Nav Wng Area.
It seems that the search is starting in the North – which happens to be nearer the area where the wreckage was found – and, if that produces nothing, will work its way to more promising areas further south and east?
Chris
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Chris Scott;
The graphic in post #685 has utilized BEA data which they plotted on Google Earth with the Lat/Long grid selected in degrees & decimals thereof. My normal inclination is to use the Deg Min format, extending to decimals of a minute if required. If HN39 posted something and subsequently removed it, I was not aware of it.
The lime green bordered rectangular shape centered on the 30.7W meridian has been obtained by superimposing detail contained in the BEA departure video. It was identified in the video as an area that had not previously been looked at. The 3 Remus AUV's are currently working it over, and I assume they will visit the part to the south of the blue rectangle eventually.
The cyan (light blue) bordered area to the west of the lime green one has also not previously been searched, and my understanding is that its area contained within the main red/blue rectangle will be searched. Areas to the west and south would seem to be obvious next choices if nothing has been found.
I suspect your reference to south and east, was meant to be south and west?
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Weather conditions are still relatively good - 1.5m sea/swell from 060T with a period of 7 ~ 8 seconds and the wind is 060T 5/10kts. Forecast for next 48 hours is for the swell to rise to 2.5m from 170T with the period increasing to 12 seconds, but the wind should become light and variable.
mm43
The graphic in post #685 has utilized BEA data which they plotted on Google Earth with the Lat/Long grid selected in degrees & decimals thereof. My normal inclination is to use the Deg Min format, extending to decimals of a minute if required. If HN39 posted something and subsequently removed it, I was not aware of it.
The lime green bordered rectangular shape centered on the 30.7W meridian has been obtained by superimposing detail contained in the BEA departure video. It was identified in the video as an area that had not previously been looked at. The 3 Remus AUV's are currently working it over, and I assume they will visit the part to the south of the blue rectangle eventually.
The cyan (light blue) bordered area to the west of the lime green one has also not previously been searched, and my understanding is that its area contained within the main red/blue rectangle will be searched. Areas to the west and south would seem to be obvious next choices if nothing has been found.
I suspect your reference to south and east, was meant to be south and west?
---------------------
Weather conditions are still relatively good - 1.5m sea/swell from 060T with a period of 7 ~ 8 seconds and the wind is 060T 5/10kts. Forecast for next 48 hours is for the swell to rise to 2.5m from 170T with the period increasing to 12 seconds, but the wind should become light and variable.
mm43
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MM43 great stuff.
Don't know how good your French is but are the RUV's responding to interesting objects picked up by the side-scan radar or are the conducting their own search for a debris trail, i.e. the prefered method employed by Cameron and Ballard.
Don't know how good your French is but are the RUV's responding to interesting objects picked up by the side-scan radar or are the conducting their own search for a debris trail, i.e. the prefered method employed by Cameron and Ballard.
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Backoffice;
Not quite sure of what's behind your question. The "Anne Candies" is towing an Orion side-scan sonar, which appears to be scanning in the search mode as each swathe path is about 1800m wide. The Orion has a dual frequency scanning mode - 57kHz in search mode and 240kHz in identification mode. This particular unit and the associated ROV is operated by Phoenix International on behalf of the US Navy and the general spec. sheet can be found at:-
The US Navy -- Fact File
Note: The Orion is being launched from the "Anne Candies" at about 2:40 into the BEA's "first-operational-dives" video at:-
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....tionnelles.mp4
There are also numerous shots of the Remus 6000 AUV's being launched or recovered by "Seabed Worker". The large ROV can also be seen at 4:20 being launched through the "moon-pool". Note the Swiss cheese holes in the side of the moon-pool which are designed to absorb swell surges.
Best definition of the video is to be had by viewing it in the mp4 format, and for those who do not have that ability, it can be rectified by downloading and installing the following Free MP4 Player:-
http://countjustonce.com/a330/free_mp4_player.zip
mm43
Not quite sure of what's behind your question. The "Anne Candies" is towing an Orion side-scan sonar, which appears to be scanning in the search mode as each swathe path is about 1800m wide. The Orion has a dual frequency scanning mode - 57kHz in search mode and 240kHz in identification mode. This particular unit and the associated ROV is operated by Phoenix International on behalf of the US Navy and the general spec. sheet can be found at:-
The US Navy -- Fact File
Note: The Orion is being launched from the "Anne Candies" at about 2:40 into the BEA's "first-operational-dives" video at:-
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....tionnelles.mp4
There are also numerous shots of the Remus 6000 AUV's being launched or recovered by "Seabed Worker". The large ROV can also be seen at 4:20 being launched through the "moon-pool". Note the Swiss cheese holes in the side of the moon-pool which are designed to absorb swell surges.
Best definition of the video is to be had by viewing it in the mp4 format, and for those who do not have that ability, it can be rectified by downloading and installing the following Free MP4 Player:-
http://countjustonce.com/a330/free_mp4_player.zip
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 14th Apr 2010 at 19:30.
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MM43 thanks for the links.
Not wishing to criticize what the experts are doing, just recall a TV program where Ballard was searching for a wreck whose position was roughly known but they couldn't find it in the clutter with side scan. They found cruising an ROV along the bottom they eventually found a debris trail (things fall out on the way down), which led them to the main wreck.
Really I'm wondering if this method is practical in this case and if it might save some time, especially if the wreckage has floated outside the main search area.
Not wishing to criticize what the experts are doing, just recall a TV program where Ballard was searching for a wreck whose position was roughly known but they couldn't find it in the clutter with side scan. They found cruising an ROV along the bottom they eventually found a debris trail (things fall out on the way down), which led them to the main wreck.
Really I'm wondering if this method is practical in this case and if it might save some time, especially if the wreckage has floated outside the main search area.
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Backoffice;
I'm now with you.
In the case of the "Titanic", Cameron & Ballard had a pretty good idea where the ship had sunk, e.g. information provided by surviving deck officers, and positions in which rescue ships located the lifeboats shortly after the event. The "Titanic" being a large ship, had all the utensils, cooking gear, crockery, to hatch covers and boilers, along with anything thing else that wasn't tied down to get distributed on its way to the bottom. Even so, I doubt if the mystery trail which they followed to the hull was very long.
AF447's crash location is much more of a mystery. Potentially the a/c could have gone in any direction for up to 40NM in the time it could have been flying from the Last Known Position. That's over 5,000NM^2, or 17,000km^2 to cover. So to be effective, back-tracking debris (the V/S being the largest and first to be sighted) is the logical way of doing it. Notwithstanding, the current Phase 3 search is programed to investigate between 2,000km^2 and 3,000km^2, but not by a "hit or miss" method, but rather by using a "mowing the lawn" technique looking initially for hull sections, wings and engines. Also remember that anything that has made it to the bottom will have only retained its shape and size if it was solid and non compressible. Seat cushions for instance would be a solid object no larger than a small calculator!
It may well be that they do find something else first, but I doubt it.
The following is a link to a short demonstration video of the Remus AUV in operation mode:-
YouTube - AF 447 search - Seabed Explorer Remus - March 2010
mm43
I'm now with you.
In the case of the "Titanic", Cameron & Ballard had a pretty good idea where the ship had sunk, e.g. information provided by surviving deck officers, and positions in which rescue ships located the lifeboats shortly after the event. The "Titanic" being a large ship, had all the utensils, cooking gear, crockery, to hatch covers and boilers, along with anything thing else that wasn't tied down to get distributed on its way to the bottom. Even so, I doubt if the mystery trail which they followed to the hull was very long.
AF447's crash location is much more of a mystery. Potentially the a/c could have gone in any direction for up to 40NM in the time it could have been flying from the Last Known Position. That's over 5,000NM^2, or 17,000km^2 to cover. So to be effective, back-tracking debris (the V/S being the largest and first to be sighted) is the logical way of doing it. Notwithstanding, the current Phase 3 search is programed to investigate between 2,000km^2 and 3,000km^2, but not by a "hit or miss" method, but rather by using a "mowing the lawn" technique looking initially for hull sections, wings and engines. Also remember that anything that has made it to the bottom will have only retained its shape and size if it was solid and non compressible. Seat cushions for instance would be a solid object no larger than a small calculator!
It may well be that they do find something else first, but I doubt it.
The following is a link to a short demonstration video of the Remus AUV in operation mode:-
YouTube - AF 447 search - Seabed Explorer Remus - March 2010
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 12th Apr 2010 at 07:42. Reason: add Remus AUV demo video link
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Thanks for that MM43 - always informative.
Do you happen to have any information on the deep sea currents in that area, i.e. would they generally follow the surface currents ?
Why do I ask...well I suspect the wreckage went down very slowly due to buoyancy in its construction and trapped fuel, indeed if they do find it I suspect it will be miles from the point of impact. Not good news for the current search but it might be an interesting exercise to try and calculate where it might be say, 24 hours after contact with the surface.
Do you happen to have any information on the deep sea currents in that area, i.e. would they generally follow the surface currents ?
Why do I ask...well I suspect the wreckage went down very slowly due to buoyancy in its construction and trapped fuel, indeed if they do find it I suspect it will be miles from the point of impact. Not good news for the current search but it might be an interesting exercise to try and calculate where it might be say, 24 hours after contact with the surface.
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Titanic connection
MM43. Paul-Henri Nargeolet is the leader of the at sea Seabed Worker search to locate AF447. He has dived to the wreck of the Titanic more than any other person, 30 times over 11 years.
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cc45;
Many thanks for the information on Paul-Henri Nargeolet. He's obviously very experienced in this sort of operation. Strange the press haven't picked up on Nargeolet being the sea search leader - they probably will now!
mm43
Many thanks for the information on Paul-Henri Nargeolet. He's obviously very experienced in this sort of operation. Strange the press haven't picked up on Nargeolet being the sea search leader - they probably will now!
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 28th Apr 2010 at 10:15.
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locating black boxes
MM43... PH Nargeolet was referenced in French as the leader of the Seabed Worker search in the Search Operations Video you kindly linked many of us to earlier today. Curiously, PH was the chief pilot from 1986 to 1996 of the French mini-submarine Nautile and he recovered 10 black boxes during his Nautile career. I suppose he could be called a professional pilot, albeit a wet one....
see Titanic-Titanic.com • View topic - Air France Black Box Seeking Sub Is Titanic Veteran
see Titanic-Titanic.com • View topic - Air France Black Box Seeking Sub Is Titanic Veteran
Last edited by cc45; 14th Apr 2010 at 17:37.
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BEA - Update: Analysis of dives
The following video has just been released by the BEA. At this stage I haven't had time to review it, but will do so in about 6 hours...
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....es.donnees.mp4
Best definition of the video is to be had by viewing it in the mp4 format
mm43
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....es.donnees.mp4
Best definition of the video is to be had by viewing it in the mp4 format
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 15th Apr 2010 at 01:51. Reason: removed free mp4 player link