ChrisN;
Terminology can be a killer!
By my
current derived position I wasn't referring to
time, but rather to
drift, i.e.
surface currents comprising (OSCAR/NOAA) and
leeway (QuikSCAT 10m winds) satellite data. The problem all along has been that everyone and their dog have had a go at determining where the aircraft crashed, and my effort of August/September 2009 is just one of those dogs. Météo France originally calculated a position for the V/S even further to the west, but a committee decision based on the interpretation of computer derived data models and the best input that the BEA could obtain, has resulted in the Phase 3 search area prescribed.
A graphic produced by the BEA in their Interim Report No.2 provides the range of back-tracked positions for the Vertical Stabilizer or bodies produced by the entities named. Anything in red (V/S) or yellow has been added by me.
So, nothing has changed since day one of this saga. The aircraft crashed in a part of the Equatorial North Atlantic which is not only deep, but is well known for its often strong and fickle surface currents. The present search procedure using the most sophisticated equipment available,
will in the course of "mowing the lawn" find the proverbial "needle in the haystack".
Finally, there would be no point in determining a back-tracked position for the V/S, if the evidence revealed to date didn't confirm it was attached to the a/c at point of impact.
mm43