AF 447 Search to resume
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Position Reports
The latest official report from BEA was posted three days ago on 22 April. It stated simply the search area covered by Phase Three tows by Anne Candies and Seabed Worker, and offered a follow-on report on May 2. A news report claimed both ships would be returning to Recife for stores.
On that same day, according to third party satellite position reports (per broadreach and mm43 from Lloyds), the search vessels stopped "mowing the lawn" and both worked their way southwestward to a point a few kilometers from mm43's VS-drift calculated point of entry (see post #738). By the afternooon of April 24, both search vessels seemed to be holding station close by each other.
Absent a briefing from BEA, we can but second-guess the activity aboard both vessels: if they are still on station by end of the weekend, we can hope they are characterizing a target of interest. If they are heading to Reciefe, then it's perhaps onward to a Phase Four.
Eagerly awaiting position updates, hoping like grizzled for the best of luck, and still wishing for a live feed from the control room... Without black boxes and other structural evidence, this is an extraordinarialy difficult investigation with too many unknowns and finger-pointing what-ifs.
GB
On that same day, according to third party satellite position reports (per broadreach and mm43 from Lloyds), the search vessels stopped "mowing the lawn" and both worked their way southwestward to a point a few kilometers from mm43's VS-drift calculated point of entry (see post #738). By the afternooon of April 24, both search vessels seemed to be holding station close by each other.
Absent a briefing from BEA, we can but second-guess the activity aboard both vessels: if they are still on station by end of the weekend, we can hope they are characterizing a target of interest. If they are heading to Reciefe, then it's perhaps onward to a Phase Four.
Eagerly awaiting position updates, hoping like grizzled for the best of luck, and still wishing for a live feed from the control room... Without black boxes and other structural evidence, this is an extraordinarialy difficult investigation with too many unknowns and finger-pointing what-ifs.
GB
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I find the wording if the BEA 22nd April press release interesting..."The initial search zone will have been entirely covered by the end of the week. The Seabed Worker and the Anne Candies will return to port at Recife for a technical stopover in the next few days."
"The initial search zone" implies to me that there are other places to visit during this search phase.
Probably like many here I do wish they had an FTP site to download their images, perhaps they have enough data to analyze in something like ArcGis, whatever, it might be useful to share the data.
One thing, when they get into port they will be able to surf the internet with less expense and someone might read MM43's position theory, fingers crossed.
"The initial search zone" implies to me that there are other places to visit during this search phase.
Probably like many here I do wish they had an FTP site to download their images, perhaps they have enough data to analyze in something like ArcGis, whatever, it might be useful to share the data.
One thing, when they get into port they will be able to surf the internet with less expense and someone might read MM43's position theory, fingers crossed.
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A question at this point in the search is if the plane -- assuming there are large pieces -- is within the area recently surveyed, what is the probability it would have been found? That is, are the bottom contours in this area such that current technology should either readily find or could easily miss the plane?
This may be the most difficult bathymetry yet in trying to locate a plane on the ocean bottom.
This may be the most difficult bathymetry yet in trying to locate a plane on the ocean bottom.
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Hi,
From the (informative) movies posted on the BEA pages .. it's seem's the searchers have softwares who can help in finding anomalies in the datas collected..
So .. if they check their screens(not like some security screeners employees
) if pieces of plane are there they will be detected .. AFAIK.
is within the area recently surveyed, what is the probability it would have been found? That is, are the bottom contours in this area such that current technology should either readily find or could easily miss the plane?
So .. if they check their screens(not like some security screeners employees
) if pieces of plane are there they will be detected .. AFAIK.
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Bathemetry Data
Curiously, in 1988 and again in 1999 the Russian Research Vessel AK N. Strakhov visited almost precisely the same area of the Atlantic where the AF447 search is currently taking place. The two Russian multibeam expeditions produced extensive bathemetry data which has been archived in a world repository accessible through NOAA.
View full-size image here.
In this photo, the 1988 Russian surveys are in yellow; the 1999 in olive. The single en-route scanning track above the Russian search area (blue) is a 1996 voyage by the Knorr from Woods Hole. Use the multibeam viewer here for more information. In examining the metadata files, I couldn't discover "why" there was such interest and intense activity here a decade ago.
Backoffice: ArcView shapefiles seem to be the standard format for representing contour lines and other bathymetric features among oceanographers and geologists, but it might be that the Remus and Orion sonar data need to be looked at pixel-by-pixel, kilometer-by-kilometer in raw form to interpret anomalies and potential targets. I believe the BEA's control room video showed Fledermaus being used for 3D visualization. The Fledermaus folks do offer a 30-day free evaluation of their software; all you need now is the raw data from BEA to be useful as another set of eyes. In any case, I'm sure many sharp eyes have been and are at work. Perhaps if the experts can't find our needle in the haystack, they will release the data for the rest of us to try... without outrageous nuisances and amateur claims. Years ago at the checkout counter of the supermarket, I remember one startling tabloid headline that screamed "DC3 Found on Moon!" with a blurry photo that could have had many interpretations.
View full-size here.
View full-size image here.
In this photo, the 1988 Russian surveys are in yellow; the 1999 in olive. The single en-route scanning track above the Russian search area (blue) is a 1996 voyage by the Knorr from Woods Hole. Use the multibeam viewer here for more information. In examining the metadata files, I couldn't discover "why" there was such interest and intense activity here a decade ago.
Backoffice: ArcView shapefiles seem to be the standard format for representing contour lines and other bathymetric features among oceanographers and geologists, but it might be that the Remus and Orion sonar data need to be looked at pixel-by-pixel, kilometer-by-kilometer in raw form to interpret anomalies and potential targets. I believe the BEA's control room video showed Fledermaus being used for 3D visualization. The Fledermaus folks do offer a 30-day free evaluation of their software; all you need now is the raw data from BEA to be useful as another set of eyes. In any case, I'm sure many sharp eyes have been and are at work. Perhaps if the experts can't find our needle in the haystack, they will release the data for the rest of us to try... without outrageous nuisances and amateur claims. Years ago at the checkout counter of the supermarket, I remember one startling tabloid headline that screamed "DC3 Found on Moon!" with a blurry photo that could have had many interpretations.
View full-size here.
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"Seabed Worker" & "Anne Candies" - 25 April positions.
The "Anne Candies" seems to have had the "day off", and is stationary as depicted in the cyan circle with the yellow center.
The "Seabed Worker" appears to be tending her Remus AUV's that are now working outside the south-west corner of the search area.
Thanks again to broadreach for supplying the data.
mm43
The "Seabed Worker" appears to be tending her Remus AUV's that are now working outside the south-west corner of the search area.
Thanks again to broadreach for supplying the data.
mm43
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jcjeant, I think one concern has been if the plane is resting somewhat vertical on a canyon wall, the profile presented may be a fuselage cross-section. I( don't know whether the technology is good enough to detect such a profile in these circumstances.
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Bathemetry Data
GreatBear,
Does the archived data actually overlap with any of the existing search? If it did then you could use the prior data as a baseline, produce a differences database and look at the changes. Of course I have no idea what the tolerances would be, but from the wobble around zero we would get a local error estimate that would allow us to decide it any (greater) differences were statistically significant. So:
Do we have any genuine overlap in the prior & post (crash) data?
What is the noise/error level like between the two sets?
What is the chance that there should be a piece of wreckage big enough to stand out over the noise?
paul
Does the archived data actually overlap with any of the existing search? If it did then you could use the prior data as a baseline, produce a differences database and look at the changes. Of course I have no idea what the tolerances would be, but from the wobble around zero we would get a local error estimate that would allow us to decide it any (greater) differences were statistically significant. So:
Do we have any genuine overlap in the prior & post (crash) data?
What is the noise/error level like between the two sets?
What is the chance that there should be a piece of wreckage big enough to stand out over the noise?
paul
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Latest Air France crash search proves inconclusive
Posted on 25 April 2010.
An international search to locate the black box recorders from an Air France plane that crashed near Brazil last year killing 228 people has so far proved inconclusive, French officials said on Friday.
Air France flight AF447 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris crashed into the sea on June 1, 2009, killing everyone on board.
The families of the victims hope the black box recorders from the Airbus A330 plane will be found in order to shed light on the disaster.
So far, the search has cost 9 million euros ($12.10 million) and French Transport Minister Dominique Bussereau said on Friday he would ask the country’s BEA body — the authority in charge of investigating air accidents — to continue its investigation.
The BEA plans to issue an update on the situation on May 4.
A search last year found several pieces of wreckage and 50 bodies but the black box flight recorders have not been recovered and the causes of the crash remain unexplained.
Reuters
An international search to locate the black box recorders from an Air France plane that crashed near Brazil last year killing 228 people has so far proved inconclusive, French officials said on Friday.
Air France flight AF447 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris crashed into the sea on June 1, 2009, killing everyone on board.
The families of the victims hope the black box recorders from the Airbus A330 plane will be found in order to shed light on the disaster.
So far, the search has cost 9 million euros ($12.10 million) and French Transport Minister Dominique Bussereau said on Friday he would ask the country’s BEA body — the authority in charge of investigating air accidents — to continue its investigation.
The BEA plans to issue an update on the situation on May 4.
A search last year found several pieces of wreckage and 50 bodies but the black box flight recorders have not been recovered and the causes of the crash remain unexplained.
Reuters
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"Seabed Worker" & "Anne Candies" - 26 April positions
The "Seabed Worker" at 26/0420z was at 1°33'05''N 31°30'18''W, 199°T/11.6KT, ETA Port Suape [8°24'S 34° 58'W] 28/0900z (0600 Brazilian Standard Time).
The "Anne Candies" at 26/0418z was at 1°50'28''N 31°02'10''W, 197°T/9.3KT,
and I'll give a Port and ETA for her tomorrow.
mm43
The "Anne Candies" at 26/0418z was at 1°50'28''N 31°02'10''W, 197°T/9.3KT,
and I'll give a Port and ETA for her tomorrow.
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 27th Apr 2010 at 02:54. Reason: changed destination
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Is there any information, though, on the likely altitude at which the VS separated? If it was effectively at zero, this would presumably be due to forces associated with impact, and this would give little information as to what caused the crash
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As explained by BEA, the center and rear attachments of the V/S failed under vertical inertia loads which pushed the V/S into the fuselage.
The tail fin was damaged during its recovery and transport but the photographs available made it possible to identify the damage that was not the result of the accident. The middle and rear fasteners with the related fragments of
the fuselage hoop frames were present in the fin base. The distortions of the
frames showed that they broke during a forward motion with a slight twisting
component towards the left.
the fuselage hoop frames were present in the fin base. The distortions of the
frames showed that they broke during a forward motion with a slight twisting
component towards the left.
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ST27;
thank you for correcting me. After re-reading both interim reports I must admit that I put rather too much of my own interpretation into that sentence. I apologize for that and I have gone back to my post to delete it.
HN39
thank you for correcting me. After re-reading both interim reports I must admit that I put rather too much of my own interpretation into that sentence. I apologize for that and I have gone back to my post to delete it.
HN39
Last edited by HazelNuts39; 27th Apr 2010 at 21:24.
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"Seabed Worker" & "Anne Candies" - April 27 positions
The "Seabed Worker" at 27/1528z was at 4°58'45"S 33°40'42"W, 199°T/12.6KT,
ETA Port Suape [8°24'S 34° 58'W] 28/1300z (1000 Brazilian Standard Time).
ETD is 2 hours later, possibly for Recife.
The "Anne Candies" at 27/0338z was at 1°10'17"S 31°50'36"W, 201°T/9.9KT,
and I don't currently have a destination - though probably Recife.
mm43
ETA Port Suape [8°24'S 34° 58'W] 28/1300z (1000 Brazilian Standard Time).
ETD is 2 hours later, possibly for Recife.
The "Anne Candies" at 27/0338z was at 1°10'17"S 31°50'36"W, 201°T/9.9KT,
and I don't currently have a destination - though probably Recife.
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 28th Apr 2010 at 07:06.
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Extended search
Lefigaro.fr, citing 'a government source', reports today that the two vessels will return to the search zone by the end of this week for a prolongation of the phase 3 search, possibly enlarging the perimeter of the zone already swept.
HN39
HN39
A question (or two) for seismographers...
When Swissair 111 hit the water off Peggy's Cove, Nova Scotia, Canada in September 1998, a "seismic event" was recorded. Investigators therefore had a very precise time -- and location -- of impact.
So, if no seismic event was recorded within the appropriate time frames for AF447, can one conclude that:
1 The aircraft did not impact the water with sufficient force to leave such a signature (which would tend to eliminate a scenario of an "uncontrolled plunge")? Or,
2 There may not be sufficiently sensitive seismic information available for that area? (I have no idea the practical science / instrumentation behind this, but I do know the USGS, for instance, receives / records even very small seismic events from all over the globe.)
I am assuming that no such event was recorded because, if it were, the impact location would be known.
Anyone?
When Swissair 111 hit the water off Peggy's Cove, Nova Scotia, Canada in September 1998, a "seismic event" was recorded. Investigators therefore had a very precise time -- and location -- of impact.
So, if no seismic event was recorded within the appropriate time frames for AF447, can one conclude that:
1 The aircraft did not impact the water with sufficient force to leave such a signature (which would tend to eliminate a scenario of an "uncontrolled plunge")? Or,
2 There may not be sufficiently sensitive seismic information available for that area? (I have no idea the practical science / instrumentation behind this, but I do know the USGS, for instance, receives / records even very small seismic events from all over the globe.)
I am assuming that no such event was recorded because, if it were, the impact location would be known.
Anyone?
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Good point!
Grizzled,
Damn good question! I too am no expert on this but I do not think that you have to be nearby to feel the earth move. My guess is it is 1> .Tends to confirm the BEA assumption that it was pretty much in level flight when it hit.
I think that is, if anything, more upsetting (no pun intended) , to think that a few more feet and it might have been so different...
Damn good question! I too am no expert on this but I do not think that you have to be nearby to feel the earth move. My guess is it is 1> .Tends to confirm the BEA assumption that it was pretty much in level flight when it hit.
I think that is, if anything, more upsetting (no pun intended) , to think that a few more feet and it might have been so different...
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Precisely !
Given only a few additional meters of altitude, the Airbus would have countered the unlucky pilots, who missed key Radar, defeated a monster Cell, perhaps for the first time in history, and made a pilotless recovery from high speed jet upset. Why didn't they think of that ! Great catch.
bear
Given only a few additional meters of altitude, the Airbus would have countered the unlucky pilots, who missed key Radar, defeated a monster Cell, perhaps for the first time in history, and made a pilotless recovery from high speed jet upset. Why didn't they think of that ! Great catch.
bear