United seems to be canceling tonights flights into London.

Gatwick and Heathrow closed from 1am.

GF007 "delayed"
 

Ash spreading measured by IR on satellites
 

The following is taken from "Teknisk Ukeblad" which is a jounal published by the Norwegian polytechnic society in Oslo.

"Satellite Images

The ashes that spread from the volcanic eruption is powdered stone that comes in and blocks the ventilation of the engine, but the plane's radar can not detect it. At NILU, with the researcher Fred Prata at the helm, has been developed a set of algorithms that convert data from U.S. satellites which could be useful for the aviation industry.

Prata uses publicly available images taken with an infrared camera by NASA satellites, then runs it through his proprietary modeling program. There are calculated the total ash quantity, concentration and size of particles in the discharge.

- Fred has several patents on this, and we have also taken this technology a step further and use it against other commercial applications, including to measure emissions from ships, "he said."

Apparently a special version of the IR camera and its software is being developed for use as a warning device on commercial aircraft. - similar to weather radar.

Finally for those of you who do not believe, there is a rather large amount of data available about single or double engine shutdown incidents at high altitude. Most of this is assumed be due to ice particles, but some may also on ash or mixed ice/ash particles.

The BBC news seems to indicate a minimal closure of LGW and LHR. Hopefully opening before midday (London time)

H

last week I saw Volcanic Ash in clouds, over the English Channel and down in Spain, north of Madrid. The clouds are dirty looking, but very thin, maybe 100-200 feet in depth. Like smoke from a fire on a still day.

This is the biggest scam ever and I hope it gets sorted using technology, before an airline folds up under the financial pressure.

ExSimGuy

The BAA website is saying that LHR is closed between 0100 and 0700 tomorrow (Monday).

Dave

Diversification

Where does this extrapolation fit into the discussion subject:confused:

It's already known what ice crystals can do on their own and where they are likely to be encountered so as to avoid.

Likewise it's already known what certain types of encounters with VA can do and how best to avoid and/or cope with it.

The two are not the same as far as the engine is concerned nor have they ever been linked together.

BBC now saying LHR & LGW will have a limited operation from 0600Z, any further info?

LGW Atis( 5 mins ago) is saying departures only from 06.00 on 08R--wondered why it was so quiet!
Hopefully ash will disappear soon!
0727
Still the same here (as apparently ash cloud is to the west of the airport) all Spanish etc deps will be going out off 8R on a DOVER/Clacton dep
Ist departure is imminent:)

Hello JetII

Looks like BA 64 is the leader of the pack into LHR as the arrivals start again with a thundering heard in hot pursuit in the holding patterns...

One factor in your favour - apparently still 'scheduled'
But two potentially against:
- The southern edge of a Black ash area is predicted to move Eastwards, VERY close to LGW between now and 1200.
- There are no arrivals into LGW at the moment, so if the aircraft in question is not already there, the Boss ain't moving, until 1800 at earliest. :uhoh:

Thank you, booksjg - I'm guessing you are addressing me.... It appears that the mods have deleted my query and Charley B´s reply.

Curiously the latest midday ash notam now shows no sign of the no fly black zone that was over England this morning! (Wonder what will happen to the VAAC graphics at midday?)

So far I've not found any evidence of ash damage in all the aircraft I've inspected (northern european regional routes). I've asked a lot of my colleagues in other airlines if they've found any evidence of ash damage or if they've heard of it being found :- Nothing. Not one engineer I've contacted has found or known of anyone finding damage. Now I don't claim to know every engineer in Europe, but it does seem that ash damage is thin on the ground (or the blades). I think that any maintenence cost saving from not flying is going to be dwarfed by the loss of revenue.

Very strange. I would have thought they'd have to keep it closed.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...1005171200.gif

Quite a few flights overhead here in North Beds at about 10 to 15K, thought it was strange having looked at the Met office charts earlier. :confused:

Question For The Men Up Front
 

I know this is a pilots forums but being a retired engineer after looking after you lot for 40 some years I feel I can ask a question on this forum.
Why is Ryanair always first to cancel so many flights out of Prestwick and other airports?

Take care out there, :confused: Peter

The Beeb was suggesting that wind had swung to the SW earlier than expected.

Predictions
 

Those scary charts are 6-hourly PREDICTIONS, not actuals. Man cannot live by predictions alone.:)

Latest chart just issued:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...1005171200.gif

The latest charts look like this. Strange that predictions change so quickly. Or would there be someting else going on?

If you look closely at the 0600 chart, in post 2883, you can see the lower black zone is a coffee stain from the forecasters mug.

The chart is in fact a Rorchsach Blot test to determine how you voted at the last Election. If you look very closely, you can see a silhouette of Gordon Brown leaving No 10.

Right, time for my pills :cool:

What have you started - I can see a wild boar rearing up out of Europe.


I guess you also saw a bore.

Errrr - the 1200 chart shows that the Black area that extended South virtually to LGW up to 0600 this morning (and was predicted to hang around until tomorrow at earliest) has now moved (VERY) rapidly North and shrunk a lot, so the southern boundary now runs through central Scotland.

This is crazy! Clearly the VA cloud could not really move at anything like that rate between 0600 and 1200 the same day, even in gale-force southerlies (which we ain't got anyway). Furthermore, the behaviour of VA clouds does not include ash suddenly falling to earth, which is the only other simple explanation for the change.

So what's going on? Reworking of the modelling software? Redefinition of the input data (which was perhaps overly pessimistic up until this morning) or duff / very fast-changing (??) weather / mass airflow data?

You tell me!

Until it's clear how this change suddenly occurred, it seems that VACC forecasting has a bit of a credibility gap to fill (and maybe plenty of spare ash to fill it with!). :confused::}

Possibly because G-LUXE has been flying a volcano ash patrol this morning and hasn't found ash where the computer previously said there was.

If so, were all the airport closures in the last 24 hours based on duff info?

But previous research flights took place on Saturday (??) which (presumably) confirmed what was being forecast then! Very odd

Perrin
 

Its a good question "why do Ryanair seem to cancel first" i can only assume that they make more or lose less by bunching people on to subsequent flights? plus many will simply not bother to reclaim their money and a lot of tickets will have been sold at below cost in what is a shoulder period, for sure you can bet they wont have done it to increase their costs.

If you had two aircraft flying with say a 130 paxs and half were on "sale" tickets you could probably improve the yield by flying the next day with one full aircraft.

The computer simulations their are creating suck because they are using PC's and not Mac's :E

These massive changes to the forecasts every six hours are causing havoc - frontline staff getting !!!!! from pax holding laptops and pointing at these VAAC charts ........... so unprofessional

Pressure to justify re-opening the airports requires the charts to be redrawn.


I'd guess. We have a new government after all.

....and because of the 'very fluid VA forecast situation', it looks like LGW has probably got lots of SLF sitting around getting cross but no aircraft to load up!!! On Radar Virtuel, it looks like Sleepy City!

They should do the charts and closures every 2 hours or so. That way a 12 hour closure may only last 4 or 6 hours. It seems if the ash is going to be too thick at 6PM to 10PM they close the airspace at 1PM to 1AM the next day.

Katla waking up?
 

Just to add more fun... there was an earthquake below the Katla volcano within the last 12 hours. If Katla wakes up (which it surely will based on history) all the current fun and games will look like kiddy stuff.

- GY

Katla little earthquake
 

Well said, in fact this webcam
Katla | Ríkisútvarpið vefur
is the most important to watch right now!!!
If the eruption of Katla starts we all better forget about flying tubes and forums, instead we must run to the nearest supermarket and immediately stock on food, water, etc. :ok: :ok: :ok:

The latest FODCOM from the CAA is at http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/33/FOD201018.pdf

Introduces Time Limited Zones which seem to allow some flight for short periods in low concentrations of Ash by AOC holders.