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Originally Posted by UltraFan
(Post 10657707)
Correct me if I'm wrong but if you "spend" a warhead, can it be lying intact? If you see it, it's not "spent". Source, validity and location of the photo should be verified.
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Just did a small calculation. The plane must have been airborn for about 3 minutes and 30 seconds after last Flightradar contact info. It must have been burning at least for minute before impact. As it took about 30 seconds at least for a person who noticed unusual event, to react, make decision to record, to take out a phone and start to record. After what we have last 30 seconds of flight on video.
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Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 10657914)
the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder
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Furthermore it is not confirmed where the search head was found and how it got there.
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 10657923)
They haven't said that at all, all they have said is that wherever the recorders go for analysis, it won't be to the USA.
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Originally Posted by aterpster
(Post 10657942)
They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.
I sincerely hope that they haven't tried to open it, instead of leaving it to the experts. |
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 10657945)
I'd have been surprised if the memory module container (the cylindrical box to which the acoustic beacon is attached) was in pristine condition. That doesn't necessarily mean that the data can't be retrieved successfully.
I sincerely hope that they haven't tried to open it, instead of leaving it to the experts. |
EDML,
Pretty quick thinking on someone's part to publish that photo of the Seeker Head.....was it taken into evidence by the Iranian authorities....the Seeker Head and photos....and a Statement by the finder himself? If not....what investigation was done to confirm/deny the validity of the "claim" made by the poster of the photo? Either it is genuine or it is not.....which is it and how is the truth of the matter documented? Can we trust what is being put forward regarding the Seeker Head by the Iranian Government? |
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Originally Posted by EDML
(Post 10657950)
The accident reports by the Iran's CAO are all done in a professional way. Therefore I am pretty sure they know how to handle a FDR/CVR.
I have no doubt to know the truth pretty soon. |
PS752 crash:
Ukrainian experts examining Boeing wreckage in Iran say fire didn't start from engines 16:55, 09 January 2020 World 104 0 The team expects to gain access to air traffic control system radar data. Members of the Ukrainian state commission investigating the crash of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 near Tehran, who had earlier arrived in Iran and have examined the plane wreckage. The engine malfunction version cannot be confirmed, a Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov said with reference to his source in the team. "At present, our group has arrived at the site where the fragments of the aircraft are being transported. It is an open area where everything found in the area is being taken. "Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said. He has added that Iranian officials provided preliminary information they had gathered. The plane took off at 06:13, but after five minutes into the flight, at an altitude of 2,400 meters, the plane began to descend, caught fire, and then crashed. "According to Iranian flight control dispatchers, no messages were received from the aircraft crew. The plane allegedly turned back toward the airport, but we don't understand yet whether this U-turn was deliberate or already uncontrolled," he said. At the same time, the Ukrainians have not seen air traffic control radar data. There is no information on objects that could be flying near the Boeing and collide with it, or if there was a missile launch. This information is yet to be provided to Ukrainians. According to the source, the Iranians are fully cooperating in the investigation. "The Iranians don't seem to be going to keep any info from anyone, they are going to provide access to the investigation and decryption of black box flight recorders to all parties, including Americans, aircraft manufacturers, as well as all countries whose citizens died, in accordance with the Chicago Convention... Iranians demonstrate normal dialogue, there are no signals that they intentionally seek to hide any information, so far everything is right and transparent enough," he said. Read alsoIran releases preliminary accident report on PS752 crash Butusov, in turn, suggests a fire could break in the cabin. "The absence of any communications with the dispatcher and the absence of fire in the engines suggests that the version of a terrorist attack, a collision with a drone, or an anti-aircraft missile explosion is very likely," the journalist alleged. |
Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?
Babak Taghvaee @BabakTaghvaee40m40 minutes ago More https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0589937a20.jpg |
The FDR is obviously central to this investigation, but I'd be really interested to learn if the CVR has anything on it. I realize that communication is the last thing you do, but if the aircraft was in fact, turning / turned back towards the airport, one would think a quick word with the tower would be in order. That there was no (reported) communication is interesting.
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Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10657974)
Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory.
If what this gent suggests is true, I would on first instinct attribute this to a collossal mistake/cock up, rather than anything willful or malicious, given that this airline has been operating on that route for some time out of this airport (per the posts much previous to this one). Still skeptical, even though now and again truth is stranger than fiction. After looking at who the passengers are believed to be (students returning to Canada after a break): what a tragic loss of part of the future generation. :suspect: From the news article cited a few posts up ... "Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said. |
Originally Posted by RCyyz
(Post 10657983)
The FDR is obviously central to this investigation, but I'd be really interested to learn if the CVR has anything on it. I realize that communication is the last thing you do, but if the aircraft was in fact, turning / turned back towards the airport, one would think a quick word with the tower would be in order. That there was no (reported) communication is interesting.
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Originally Posted by gearlever
(Post 10657990)
Not to forget the flight deck communication...
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Originally Posted by andrasz
(Post 10657847)
Have said it before, but with all the noise on the thread it is now deeply burried so let me repeat: in a totalitarian society (and let's not open a debate whether Iran is one) EVERYTHING that appears in formal news outlets is controlled by the authorities. I would find it extremely unlikely that if any Iranian military unit would have committed such a blunder (which by itself is not at all inconceivable), free access would have been given to local press to the wreckage, and photos permitted to be published. Were that the case, by sunrise authorties would have known in full detail what happened, and as a knee jerk reaction would have done everything in their power to supress incriminating information.
Reasoning: this is 2020, a good old times total cover up is just impossible to accomplish credibly. Neither is desirable the insinuation that it is being attempted, Iran is wants to show they play by international law and civilization as much as possible. The only damage-limiting tactic possible: Act as if nothing is known. If and when the investigation will have enough evidence that was explosion, dispute the missile theory until the end. Support the thesis of an inside bomb, that has worked good in case of Itavia IH870. Only if considered inevitable, and at a later point blame the shoot down on an mistake that was, somehow, never communicated upward. Prosecute some sacrificial ranks and file, or whatever official is needed, have them executed. Compensate the airline and victim's families to the smallest amount possible and just move on. After all, Iran has bigger problems to deal with. |
[pax] Opinion says not. Given the short duration of the event, whatever initiated it must have been very intense in order to cause so much flame so rapidly: no time for a progressive build up. Inference is that the electrics were lost so no transponder or comms.
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Damaged Memory?
Originally Posted by aterpster
(Post 10657942)
They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.
"There is memory in both devices, but physical damage is visible on them." Which I take it to mean the device themselves, rather than the internal memory. Just my view, but would they really have got round to opening them and checking the contents after such a relatively short time?? Alchad |
[QUOTE=Airbubba;10657974]Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?
Looks to be a similar track to the Parot 3G SID https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e9bfb3533.jpeg |
Sky news reporting Downing Street investigating possibility aircraft was shot down. (Press speculation only - no new information)
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plan...ssile-11904698 |
Has anyone remarked THIS article? Perhaps the reason for the delay (offloading baggage from the cargo hold)?
https://112.international/society/16...sdc-47285.html There were 169 passengers checked in for PS 752 flight from Iran to Kyiv, but two of them did not get aboard. This was announced by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danylov at the briefing, which was broadcasted by 112 Ukraine TV Channel. |
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 10658004)
The FR24 trace stops with the aircraft still in the climb on the departure heading. You can't tell anything from the trace about what did or didn't happen subsequently.
Here's the FR24 plot of the .kml file plotted on Google Earth: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....727116fb2b.jpg The standard FR24 plot: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....37c8bb432a.jpg And the FlightAware track log showing a course change in the last point: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f31a394e61.jpg |
Originally Posted by SA Brit
(Post 10658025)
Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10657974)
Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?
Thanks, I appreciate it. :ok: |
Salute!
As Mozella points out, it is not unheard of to have SAM operators and others tracking commercial aircraft. So the theory that an unintentional/accidental launch happened is worthy of examination. However, if that is the case then I doubt the government would be quick to admit such. Our very own NORAD had "accidental" shootdowns back in the day, and I went thru one pressure chamber training session with a troop that was shot down by an F-102. The Deuce pilot had failed to confirm a weapon system evaluator missile ( inert warhead and motor) was loaded, and a live AIM-4 used for load crew training was launched. We went the full distance when carrying WSEM's, including opening the bay doors and extending the missiles on their trapeze launch rails so the seeker could lock on. For the nuclear Genie on my VooDoo, we rotated the bay door and confirmed the targeting data was sent to the rocket and then the fire signal. Our live nukes had a whole different buncha layers of security and such, as you can imagine. However, I did get to touch them when pre-flighting and cocking my plane on the alert pad. During some inspections and exercises we got them outta the bomb dump and actually loaded a few. You know, "war games" !! So it is possible a SAM site was tracking the airliner and a safety interlock failed or was incorrectly set. I have a problem with the launch crew not turning off the guidance signals ( if the thing was command guided like ones I saw over Hanoi and not a radar/optical seeker). And even the semi-active seeker types can go "dumb" if you turn off the tracking radar. Gums sends... |
Seems to be confirmed to be a missile, not one but two:
@krisvancleave. |
Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10658031)
It looks to me like there is a 20 degree turn to the right before the data is lost. I think the FR24 dataset has been updated with the 'granular' data from the local ADS-B receiver(s).
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US UK and Iraqi officials seem to be in agreement on this now after distancing from it yesterday.
BREAKING: Senior US and Iraqi officials report that the Ukrainian airliner that went down outside Tehran was brought down by a surface to air missile. |
Quick debris map as best i can gather from the images.
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dc8a59d00a.jpg |
Originally Posted by Sailvi767
(Post 10657930)
Yes, really! Certainly they would never see a missle fly out at anything beyond 2 digit ranges.
Originally Posted by LiamNCL
(Post 10658051)
US UK and Iraqi officials seem to be in agreement on this now after distancing from it yesterday.
BREAKING: Senior US and Iraqi officials report that the Ukrainian airliner that went down outside Tehran was brought down by a surface to air missile. |
Originally Posted by Interflug
(Post 10658060)
Accidental. Oh, nobody would have thought so. It looked like a regular landing to me.
Unbelievable... |
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You have a SAM site sitting under the departure corridor of a major international airport, this was no mistake.
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Just in:
WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - A Ukraine airliner that crashed in Iran, killing all 176 people aboard, was most likely brought down accidentally by Iranian air defenses, U.S. officials said on Thursday. One U.S. official said U.S. satellites had detected the launch of two missiles shortly before the plane crashed, followed by evidence of an explosion. Two officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was accidental. The Pentagon declined to comment. |
Good work by some open minded Ppruners, IMO. Some very well observed details of high velocity frag damage to parts of the airframe, some accurate interpretation of the recorded initial flightpath and some well considered consideration of the subsequent descent and crash. Additionally, the smoking evidence of the missile seeker was well explained and treated with the appropriate caution by those with knowledge. I am sure more details will emerge. RIP the victims.
OAP |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 10657957)
EDML,
Pretty quick thinking on someone's part to publish that photo of the Seeker Head.....was it taken into evidence by the Iranian authorities....the Seeker Head and photos....and a Statement by the finder himself? If not....what investigation was done to confirm/deny the validity of the "claim" made by the poster of the photo? Either it is genuine or it is not.....which is it and how is the truth of the matter documented? Can we trust what is being put forward regarding the Seeker Head by the Iranian Government? However, if I would have found a missile part near a crashed aircraft I would have done more to document what it is and where it was found. E.g. a picture showing the wider surroundings so that the location can be verified. Turning it over to the authorities might be a problem in Iran, I agree on that. I have seen so many pictures after aircraft accidents posted on social media where, after a short period of time, it was determined, that they did not even show the aircraft that had crashed. Without any kind of proof or further information I tend to be very skeptical with pictures found on social media sites. |
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....795c2ca69c.jpg
Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building. Surely not the same plane? |
Originally Posted by jewitts
(Post 10658126)
Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building.
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Originally Posted by jewitts
(Post 10658126)
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....795c2ca69c.jpg
Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_S...eing_707_crash The BBC has rolled out old Learmount for Radio 4 and News At 6 so there goes all credibility for that organisation. |
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