But the holes are all over the airframe! From the vertical fin to the fuselage to the wing section, everywhere. Take a look at the photos. Spots, dots, holes. Too many of them, you dont even need to do your best to see them immediately....
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Originally Posted by Helix Von Smelix
(Post 10656616)
Dots on the aircraft skin could be telling.
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At the moment there are only two pieces of solid information. The video shows an in-flight fire with some break-up already happening (looking close it is possible to see at one point glowing pieces shredding) and just before the final impact (but still in the air) there is a major flare-up. The post-crash photos show clear evidence for external shrapnel damage on a section of the fuselage (the damage seen on the VS and the engine exhaust cowl is not conclusive, those could have happened during ground impact).
The combination of the above is EITHER the result of a catastrophic uncontained engine failure, OR a missile strike, full stop. In principle, design and certification should preclude the former, but it still does happen, cannot be ruled out at this stage. While the evidence is certainly suspicious, knowing Iran well (have just been there last October) I find an accidential missile hit rather unlikely. While panic and incompetence under the circumstances is entirely plausible, Iran is a very tightly controlled society, and the news of such a blunder would have reached the highest levels very rapidly. The accident happened in the dark, and the first reports show burning wreckage in darkness. Had it been a missile launched by Iranian forces, the area would have been cordoned off and no photos with incriminating evidence would have been permitted to surface, especially not on government controlled news outlets. There may be incompetence among the military, but certainly not among the news censors. |
Yes, if you look at the crash scene, there is no aircraft at all. if it came down 737 max style, there would be a crater and nothing left, if it flew down, there would be a crash trail and large parts of the air frame intact and on fire, if it blew up in mid air there would be a very large debris field and not very many large bits of the air frame intact. So its either a catastrophic explosion in the air caused by ?, engine explosion, missile fragmentation, or bomb, but with a bomb fragmentation would inside to out, rather than what looks like can be seen.
Ukraine has withdrawn its earlier statement, so interesting, watch this space. They have the black boxes so I wonder what will be on the CVR and did the pilots know anything about it. |
Timing is extremely suspicious but i don’t really see the point for the iranians to shoot down an aircraft on their own soil. It could only worsen the already very delicate situation.
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BBC are reporting that the aircraft had had it's most recent scheduled maintenance on Monday.... another avenue to investigate.
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Yes, the absence of any impact crater and no recognisable parts of the fuselage, apart from the vertical stabiliser, increases the likelihood of significant airframe disintegration prior to hitting the ground. What we have not seen is the debris field along the flightpath, which would provide much more suggestive evidence. The video of the plane in flight definitely shows it to be on fire, with some limited trailing disintegration (although being dark it's impossible to see the extent) and a steep downward trajectory followed by the large explosion on hitting the ground.
There's nothing in any of this to rule in or rule out a possible cause, so statements about the cause from Iran or Ukraine at this stage can have no validity (any more than guesswork on this forum). It has been reported that there was no emergency call from the flightdeck, so that adds nothing either. The airframe was only three years old, although recent maintenance just 2 days ago is bound to arouse suspicion. Until there is more evidence, anything is speculation. The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian officials are now rowing back on early assertions of a "technical problem" with an engine and are now saying investigators need to ascertain the cause. |
Originally Posted by susier
(Post 10656715)
The officials have now withdrawn that statement, according to the Telegraph newspaper
Jerusalem Post reports: "Iran civil aviation org says will not give black box to Boeing" Clarification: Its not clear whether the inference was no-one would receive the black box or just not boeing. Waiting for a better translation of their statement to surface |
Do we have a registration? I'd be looking at how far it's flown since completing the technical on Monday 6th Jan presumably in Kyiv.
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Originally Posted by Auxtank
(Post 10656753)
Do we have a registration? I'd be looking at how far it's flown since completing the technical on Monday 6th Jan presumably in Kyiv.
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Well, she's done a fair few miles since coming out the tech shop on Monday...
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....216e5abbf5.jpg |
Iran says it will not hand over the flight recorders. What happens in this case? Something to hide perhaps?
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Originally Posted by IBE8720
(Post 10656714)
You can determine from a photograph, that hole on the fusleage are absolutely fragment damage, but similar holes around the engine area are inconclusive?
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Originally Posted by sceh
(Post 10656777)
Iran says it will not hand over the flight recorders. What happens in this case? Something to hide perhaps?
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Originally Posted by get_over_it
(Post 10656765)
I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats?
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Originally Posted by andrasz
(Post 10656785)
The engine exhaust cowl has two holes, one large with outward bending edges, and a smaller indistict one with apparently inward bending ones. The photo is not clear enough to tell. The VS has a single puncture mark, it is possible that it was caused by an object during ground impact.
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Originally Posted by get_over_it
(Post 10656765)
I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats? Shocking event.
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Originally Posted by Auxtank
(Post 10656797)
Which photo are you using for that analysis?
Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure |
Originally Posted by RTM Boy
(Post 10656769)
How do you know, especially given the current situation? From what Frank Gardner says, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a law unto itself.
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Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 10656533)
Would suggest that this particular subject is so sensitive to the welfare of a very large number of people around the world that it be suspended. The usual level of rhetoric that occurs on these pages may end up being consequential to actions by others. This is a dangerous time, and a dangerous situation, and those in charge have shown a propensity to use "intel" from any source, irrespective of veracity.
I would suggest that sites like this are a fantastic source to disseminate real information regarding touchy subjects like this that are not moderated by the media outlets, all of whom show an overwhelming desire to appease Iran. I don't suggest that I know whether or not this aircraft was shot down or had a catastrophic failure of some sort, but it does a disservice to the people who died on that flight to assist in hiding the truth - and that begins with censoring subjects related to it. |
Originally Posted by brentford77
(Post 10656792)
I think that is not unprecedented. For some strange reason, they do not appear to trust the Trump administration. My guess is that they will retain control of the analysis and data retrieval with the assistance of experts from a country more friendly to them. My money is on Germany.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the analysis isn’t done by BEA in France. Weren’t they the chosen impartial experts chosen by Ethiopia ? David |
Originally Posted by RTM Boy
(Post 10656769)
Missiles are mobile - just consider MH17.
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Originally Posted by The AvgasDinosaur
(Post 10656812)
Trust Boeing, FAA, Trump ?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the analysis isn’t done by BEA in France. Weren’t they the chosen impartial experts chosen by Ethiopia ? David I'm not reading anything sinister in to Iran's refusal to hand them over to Boeing ther than current tensions. |
Thanks to the avherald site:
(blue markings are mine) Apparently the aircraft tried to turn around?. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6bbb8b71a.jpeg |
The remaining flying surfaces indicate shrapnel damage, this would not have occurred from a catastrophic engine failure under any circumstances.
A shoot down. |
Originally Posted by kyden
(Post 10656520)
9 crew, according to Avherald and other various news sources. I don't have enough posts yet to share link, but article was just posted within the last 30 mins.
Can anybody explain/elaborate on this? |
Hi there guys, signed up to share this information with you. We also located site of the crash and direction, which aligns with the photos in the media already. It does appear they were on a heading back to the airport.
Crash site: 35°33'42.71"N 51° 6'11.98"E Cant post images as this is a new account so I put them on imgur: imgur.com/a/cUjWqyj |
Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake
(Post 10656854)
Was the first flight of the day? .
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Originally Posted by iggie
(Post 10656844)
An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.
Can anybody explain/elaborate on this? |
Originally Posted by iggie
(Post 10656844)
An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.
Can anybody explain/elaborate on this? |
Originally Posted by get_over_it
(Post 10656765)
I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats?
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One should not conclude missile or uncontained engine debris just from photos of holes in the fuselage etc. Violent breakup events also produce holes like in the photos. In order to assess such differences you need to examine the hole surfaces both macroscopically and as a pattern. Just from photos like above is not enough.
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Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d515c440b8.jpg |
Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....
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That's an interesting photo, lots of stones but also an inward hole below one of the windows. Of course that might have been caused for a variety of reasons.
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Originally Posted by The Bartender
(Post 10656909)
Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...
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These holes remind me something already seen....no conspirators here at all..but little holes are rising some questions!! |
Originally Posted by A. Muse
(Post 10656918)
Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....
Remember Air France flight 4590? That was 20 years ago - somebody caught that on film... |
Originally Posted by The Bartender
(Post 10656909)
Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...
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Originally Posted by A. Muse
(Post 10656918)
Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....
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