As it is to Russia.....

The economic bit seems to have started..Russians have now been advised not to visit Turkey as its unsafe. To reinforce it Natali, their equivalent of Thomson Holidays has pulled all Turkish holiday packages off their market....BBC reporting that Russians were the second biggest group visiting Turkey after the Germans and ahead of the British....

Looks like Valdivostok might be busy next year at this rate

I don’t think we’ll see WW3 erupt from this. A military aircraft on a military mission gets shot down - it happens. Civil transports flying on airways have been taken out without starting an immediate conflict between nations.

At what level was the decision to fire taken? Behind the scenes the Turkish government is likely furious but equally don’t want to lose face with a frantic apology. How would “poking the Russian bear”, as another poster put it, advance Turkey’s interests? It doesn’t make sense from a premeditated standpoint.

Also, although they are a longstanding member of NATO, little things like human rights, the invasion of Cyprus and the unfortunate fact that not many in the EU want them any closer may play against the Turks. The Ukraine gave up nuclear arms in exchange for western support and look what good it did them...

Correction: all ex-USSR republics gave up nuclear weapon in exchange for RF obligation solely bear all debts of USSR. "Western support" which was at any instance different from one received by RF can be counted for Ukraine not earlier than since first "Orangade" i.e. 2004.

Russia would have to do this, before taking action. They have about 50,000 holidaymakers in Antalya and Alanya, and would have to evacuate them first.

Once they are all out, Putin can act at will. Russia is not dependent on Turkey for anything, and Turkey is not exactly strategically important. The US has a large airbase in the east of Turkey, but they are hardly the best of mates, and could always relocate to Cyprus. The EU regarded Turkey as a possible member, but came under a barrage of opposition and has effectively shelved that proposal. Turkey is a NATO member, but always on the fringe. I cannot see NATO comming to the aid of Turkey, especially when they were responsible for the problem in the first place.

The result is that Russia will only back down if Erdogan grovels an apology. But anyone who knows Turkey will realise that Erdogan cannot and will not apologise for anything. There is no such word in the Turkish language. So there will be a diplomatic and military stand-off that will simmer and escallate for a few weeks or more, before things turn sour. And Turkey will eventually regret its intransigence. It will lose out economically, and military, but Erdogan will still revel in the deteriorating situation and portray himself as the victim (as they always do) - with an uncaring world against him.

As I said, popcorn futures are rising rapidly.

ST

Ahem... what about straits? Bosphore & Dardanelles. When you want to resupply an expeditionnary force sent to... say, Syria?

I'm not saying it can't be done in another manner, I'm saying it's not "unimportant".

Actually, I believe it is you who doesn’t understand.

I don’t know how serious your suggestion of dropping Manpads to the Kurds was, but do you really believe the world will just look the other way? Such provocations are never just one way. Even a more conventional military response by Russia will have consequences, definitely economically, probably military as well.

The more sensible of us recognise that escalating this incident will have unpleasant consequences for both sides. I hope and believe that wiser counsel will prevail, and that whatever is said for public consumption, behind the scenes the situation is being diffused.

I would say that Turkeys geographical position, on Russia's southern flank, the Mediterrainean coast and adjacent to the Middle East is highly strategic.

Turkey responsible for the problem in the first place? Perhaps you missed the bit where Russia compromised Turkeyish airspace (not for the first time). NATO are obliged by treaty to come to the aid of Turkey if requested. (Quite what form that would take is another matter).

Turkey downs Russian jet - Live Blogs - Al Jazeera English

http://images.scribblelive.com/2015/...613eb63eed.jpg

http://images.scribblelive.com/2015/...099406053e.jpg

this video purports to be the shooting down of the rescue chopper however it is already on the ground why? don't think it is genuine chopper blown up yes but different occasion?

Syrian Rebels Destroy Russian Helicopter With US-Supplied Anti-Tank Missile | Zero Hedge

It seems to me that Putin has been ignoring the "keep off the grass" warnings with a "what are you going to do about it?" attitude and the Turks decided to show them. They may come to regret it, or Putin might decide that this is one he doesn't want to inflame at this stage and be more careful in the near future.

How precise are their radars?

Also now it's again "in Turkish airspace".

The original story was the Russian helicopter had been forced into an emergency landing due to groundfire. It looks like having done so they have had time to pick it off with a missile. Then again it could be a totally different incident...who knows.

Turkey is one of the largest buyers of Russian gas, second only to Germany. (And on the flip side, Turkey heavily depends on Russian gas).

Putin has to project a tough response for domestic consumption, but neither side will want to escalate this incident out of proportions.

Watching those 'American backed and armed' rebels shooting up at the aircrew on their parachutes and screaming Allahu Akbar as they did so was chilling. No different to IS screaming the same. Just religious extremism from both sides.They were screaming the same over the dead bodies later. Seems to me that theres no such thing as friendly rebels. West and East should leave them all too it instead of fighting a proxy war.

Strong rumours that NATO is abt to tell Turkey ( at the meeting Turkey called) you are on your own

As I understand it article 5 only applies if someone attacks a Nato member 1st, if the NATO member is the aggressor article invalid.

Wonder if the turks realised that?

Unless Turkey can sell the original violation of airspace by an armed Russian fighter as an "attack"

That would be music to Putin's ears. NATO falling apart over a military aircraft shootdown. Not a bad price to pay unless you happen to be family of the dead aircrew.

At what stage did the missile hit the aircraft?

Was it during the 17 seconds (when it was, allegedly, in Turkish territory) - or afterwards?

At what stage were the warnings issued?

Was it during the 17 seconds (when it was, allegedly, in Turkish territory) - or afterwards?

If you confront an intruder, are you entitled to shoot them after they have left your premises?

Given that there isn't any joined up policy as to what to do about what and who's fighting who, then its inevitable that a blue on blue-ish will continue to be a possibility.
The sooner people sit around a table and work out who the enemy really is, the better. Our own (UK) government pulling the financial bunny out if the hat to increase military spending is a prime example - we all want/need to be seen to be doing something, but actually don't know what it is.

Time to stand back and have a think.

17 seconds in Turkish airspace?
 

Quote: "Unless Turkey can sell the original violation of airspace by an armed Russian fighter as an "attack" "

17 seconds and just over a mile on a very tiny stretch of airspace at high speed and high altitude: Turkish aviation and PM knew this was not a hostile incursion but possibly human error during real operations close to border, it can happen and it does happen. 17 seconds is nothing.
Totally unnecessary.
Nobody can blame the Russians for 17 seconds. At high speed this means nothing, it was probably involuntarily and one Russian plane immediately went back in fact.
This was clearly not a Russian air-attack on Turkey, massive mistake made by the Turkish in my opinion.
NATO will have to agree with Putin this time.
There have been other cases of incursions that went well beyond 1 mile and beyond the 17 seconds and planes have not been shot down unless the intruder was at war with the shooter...maybe Turkey considers itself at war with Russia hence the unprecedented reaction of today :mad: