In what language?

One presumes in English, as that is likely to be the only common language. But in my experience the Turkish military English is as bad as Russian military English. In which case, there is ample room for confusion, especially when a military pilot is very busy planning an active sortie.

If the Turks are so jumpy that they cannot realise the potential problems, and observe rather than engage, then they are not very clever. Did they really think this aircraft was about to attack Antakya? Frankly, the initial analysis suggests that trigger-happy Turks have (predictably) precipitated an unesessary international incident.

ST

If you google maps Yamadi, Latakia (the closest thing to the site apparently) it's right on the border with Turkey. Turkey's border is anything but a straight line down there though.

It's probably close enough to the border that we can't tell from the crash location which airspace it was in when it got hit.

Meanwhile, Russian media actively discussing the possibility of the plane coming down from a MANPAD while Turkey has been saying it did it all along :suspect:

Turkey 'shoot down warplane on Syria border' - BBC News

Video clip shows two chutes

Or B. The Russians finally managed to exhaust the Turks patience for repeated incursions by a known bully who has a habit of messing around inside other people's countries whilst issuing denials......

I am not suggesting anything. I would just assume both sides of this situation will probably know what happened. As both parties will probably have air picture recordings that i will assume at least one of them will release to the media.

It was said "Yamadi, Latakia" as in "Yamadi, region of Latakia".

Here it is: https://goo.gl/maps/QipzQZVymNk

Radar plot
 

Here's the link to the radar plot
http://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669098577524822016/photo/1

Turkey Supports Turkmen in Syria
 

Whichever side of the border it was on, last week Turkey protested to Russia about their targeting of Turkmen (ethnic Turks in Syria).

One way of interpreting this is that Turkey is telling Russia "Hands off the Turkmen".

Transmitting a warning is not the same thing as that warning being received and ignored, no matter what the language in use. I've got 153 combat missions under my belt and there were plenty of times my side was unsuccessful when trying to communicate with me while on a mission.

I've also made a number of non-combat intercepts of Russian bombers and not once were they able to make contact with me (and vice versa), although they were able to hold up the latest issue of Playboy magazine for my viewing pleasure.

The press may assume the Turkish warning was received and ignored, but we pilots, especially those with combat experience, should be more prudent and not jump to conclusions.

Based on that radar plot and the Google maps scale, each of two overflights was over
a 2.5-3.5km spur of Turkish territory.

That's a 10 second overflight at Mach 1.

...but it's still an overflight. Twice by the look of it.

I'm sure Turkey wont be happy if Russia puts a ban on Turkish holidays. Would certainly hurt the tourist industry. Interested in Putins response !

Syrian rebels release a video of a dead Russian pilot
 

From LiveLeak:

Syrian rebels release a video of a dead Russian pilot, video is on LiveLeak.

First time a NATO member has downed a Russian or Soviet military aircraft since the 1950s: this could turn really nasty indeed. Past major wars and conflicts (including World Wars) have often been triggered by similar accidents.
From below: "My personal opinion is that Putin will mostly take this one on the chin, and not react in a way likely to escalate a confrontation with the forces of NATO countries." The entire planet is hoping for the same.

Let's hope pilots are still both alive and video is not genuine (unfortunately video looks real). :(

Based on the Turkish radar plot (if accurate) and overlaying on Google maps, the SU-24 was at no point further than 2.5-3.5 km from getting back into Syrian airspace. See my post above.

It's not unreasonable to think after those warnings a few weeks back that the Turkish military was under pretty strict guidelines. Turkey doesn't like what has been happening right outside its borders so that doesn't help.

(could one imagine the opposite scenario where a NATO mission is doing bombing raids a few miles from the Russian border and "accidentally" crossing into Russia's airspace for a few moments every now and then? Russia would never in a million years accept what it is doing to Turkey now)

Sure, but it would hurt the "normal russian citizen" too. Crimea is more expensive and less quality then the turkish 4-5* all inclusive offer and Egypt is currently not an option.

It was suggested earlier the reason for this may not be the minor incursion of their airspace but the fact that russia is bombing the turkmens.

How ever Turkey has been bombing the most successful on th ground anti ISIS fighters namely the kurds. Going to be "interesting" next time Turkey invades syrian airspace to bomb the kurds.

Yepp, like the Jordan pilot a couple of months ago.

Fair enough. All I'd seen when I posted was Latakia. Given this, anything could be true about where the plane was during the flight prior to the shoot down and unfortunately it's near impossible to trust statements on that point made by anyone involved.

In political terms though, the truth is less important than the ability of the various participants to dictate the narrative.

My personal opinion is that Putin will mostly take this one on the chin, and not react in a way likely to escalate a confrontation with the forces of NATO countries.

Pilots with combat experience can perhaps enlighten?

How does a pilot stay inside friendly airspace when conducting a combat mission near such a convoluted border with only a few seconds margin of error?

Is the navigation instrumentation capable of showing a finely delineated border accurately? And is it at all feasible to keep within the border?