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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

awblain 10th Mar 2014 10:47

Missing passengers
 
The airline press release at least stated that the now-show passengers' baggage was offloaded.

5 out of 250 doesn't seem an unreasonable number not to board, and their names are known and their passports were scanned, so they can easily be eliminated. Baggage tag scanner records should show whether they did have bags on board.

Stanley11 10th Mar 2014 10:49


both btw have trigger happy MIG fighter pilots, they would come clean.
@Joshannon

You wrote this article in the South China Morning Post?

Sir, may I ask you what led you to remark that Vietnamese and Malaysian MIG fighter pilots are 'trigger happy'? Do you have any examples of late to suggest that they are less than professional than what you allege? I sure hope that your mindset of vietnamese soldiers/pilots are not the 1960s vietnam war era generation. What fighters do Malaysia have in their fleet? Do you know that there are Sukois and F-18s apart from their Mig 29s? So how are the Mig pilots are trigger happy compared to the rest?
This very statement discredits you and brings your credibility as a journalist to that of a sensationalist opportunist.

jbr76 10th Mar 2014 10:50


Quote:
Starting to look this way. Could the Malay Govt be covering up the fact that they took this plane out, because it was a security threat (hijacked, full of fuel, heading for KL)?
Heading for KUL? It was heading for PEK! The conspiracy theorists who drummed up the banter regarding the flight making a turn back to KUL is totally and utterly unsubstantiated and and cannot be confirmed due to the integrity of some of the radar data that was logged. There is no credible data thus far that backs that theory up or has been confirmed.

People please, before hitting the send button on your post please ensure you have read the facts surrounding this flight properly.

This flight departed KUL and was heading for PEK.

I am sick of reading people's posts on here who are quoting incorrect information. :ugh:

andrasz 10th Mar 2014 10:53

Can someone point to a credible primary source that in fact there is any search activity in the Malacca Straits ? Just because the aircraft are BASED in Butterworth (on the Malacca coast) does not mean they are searching there. I can imagine the apron at Kota Baharu getting rather cluttered, so a base 200km away might be more suitable for the long-range P-3s.

Eclectic 10th Mar 2014 10:54


Heading for KUL? It was heading for PEK! The conspiracy theorists who drummed up the banter regarding the flight making a turn back to KUL is totally and utterly unsubstantiated and and cannot be confirmed due to the integrity of some of the radar data that was logged. There is no credible data thus far that backs that theory up or has been confirmed.

People please, before hitting the send button on your post please ensure you have read the facts surrounding this flight properly.

This flight departed KUL and was heading for PEK.

I am sick of reading people's posts on here who are quoting incorrect information.
You seem to be missing this piece of information: BBC News - Missing Malaysia Airlines plane 'may have turned back'

SaturnV 10th Mar 2014 10:55

From ABC News

The search has been expanded to the Straits of Malacca on the other side of the Malaysian peninsula in order to discount the possibility that the aircraft turned back to Malaysia airspace. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet is using a P-3C Orion marine surveillance aircraft to search in the northern section of the Strait of Malacca today, according to the group’s Facebook page.

philbky 10th Mar 2014 11:01

Similarity to Comet 1 disappearnce of Elba
 
The similarity to the Comet 1 accident off Elba is in some ways striking. For all our modern comms and tracking equipment, once a return/downlink has gone, it's gone and what happens to the airframe and all conveyed therein is as clear in 2014 as it was in 1954 until someone like a fisherman comes up with a report of seeing the incident, and that could be days, or genuine wreckage/bodies surface.

Ulight 10th Mar 2014 11:04

May have found something
 
TR?C TI?P: Xác minh thông tin nhi?u m?nh v? g?n V?ng Tàu | Xã h?i | Báo ?i?n t? Ti?n Phong

A Squared 10th Mar 2014 11:07


Originally Posted by Capn Bloggs (Post 8363818)
A Squared, before you go off half-cocked, have a look where the Straits of Malacca are: miles away from the current search position and on the other side of Peninsula Malaysia.

Yes. I've flown over the Straits of Malacca, I know where they are. If one assumes that the airplane had some sort of accidental catastrophe, then true, the straits of Malacca are very improbable. Thing is, we don't know that it *was* an in flight disintegration/uncontrolled descent/etc and we don't know that it *wasn't* a commandeering/ hijacking. If you do not assume those are not possibilities, then the straits of Malacca stop being an impossibility. I've been involved in search and rescue, and you don't only search in places you think are probable, although you give them extra effort. Ideally you search everyplace that is physically possible for the plane to be locate, although that can be a really big area so you try to reduce that as much as possible. But, yeah, you do send assets to search areas with a lower probability, rather than concentrating all assets in the area you think is most probable, given your assumptions. It's pretty obvious that a hijacking scenario hasn't been absolutely ruled out, so the possible ares that it could be are a little more widespread than "directly downwind from the last point of contact".

Besides, it looks like nobody really knows whose P-3s they are or what they're doing.

edit: I see a later posts suggest that they are US P-3s searching for MH370.

Ulight 10th Mar 2014 11:09

[UPDATE] Potential wreckage?
 
TPO - According to air traffic management agency in Hong Kong, one of their aircraft detected several unidentified fragments at position coast from Vung Tau is about 60km to the southeast (how to position the plane missing over Malaysia 500km).

Google Translate

Hempy 10th Mar 2014 11:09


Originally Posted by andrasz (Post 8363684)

I presume standard ICAO SARPHASE procedures where followed?
Precisely. The uncertainty phase commenced soon after Subang was unable to make contact with the aircraft. After all communication attempts failed, the alert phase was issued at 2:40, pretty much an hour after the start of uncertainty phase, and I'm sure all relevant authorities started preparing for a SAR mission. Full scale distress phase was probably declared at/around ETA BJS.

The same timescales happened with AF447, SAR was only launched after the aircraft failed to make contact anywhere beyond its remaining endurance. An overwater SAR mission is a very costly exercise, and diverts scarce resources which potentially might be needed for another emergency. Such resources are not sent off on wild goose chases until at least the basic facts are gathered and analyzed.

lol and therein lies half the problem. Lose the blip but keep comms: no phase required. Lose comms but can still 'see' the aeroplane: Incerfa appropriate. Lose comms AND lose the blip = an immediate DISTRESFA where I come from.....

A Squared 10th Mar 2014 11:13


Originally Posted by anotheruser (Post 8363886)
With all that speculation, I'm wondering, couldn't the cause of the accident (if it was one) simply be a human glitch?

I mean, we've had pilots
- accidently shutting down the engines instead of retracting the gear
- accidently setting the parking brake inflight, causing all tyres to burst on landing
- accidently selecting a lower flap setting instead of a higher one on approach, causing the aircraft to stall
- accidently trimming the rudder to the point the autopilot disconnects, causing the aircraft to flip over

Why does it have to be terrorism, a UFO, a meteorite? It could simply have been a pilot accidently pushing the wrong button for no apparent reason ...

I don't know of any airplane 777 or not which has a button when accidentally pushed causes it to break all contact and disappear off the face of the earth. One would expect that such a button would have a big red guard over it. Maybe with a printed warning too.

ntq1947 10th Mar 2014 11:16

from BBC News Asia
 
... Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.
"In calm seas, if there were a soccer ball [football] or a basketball floating in the water, the radar could pick it up. They [flight recorders] typically have a radio beacon and so for example our P3 [radar] - if they are flying within a certain range of that - will pick up that radio beacon. We have not yet picked up anything, but that's typically what those black boxes contain." ...


The sentence in bold letters, is incorrect, as far as my knowledge is concerned.

xxzz123 10th Mar 2014 11:20

something is very wrong
 
By now any flight deck, accident investigation, terror prevention or ATC staff will now be very suspicious about the last 24 hours lack of developments. This simply does not happen in todays environment, A/C hit TOC at 35, no conclusive radar signature, no wreckage, conflicting data, relatively shallow seas, someone somewhere is holding back the tragic fate of this 777.

Backseat Dane 10th Mar 2014 11:22


1) Catastrophic in-flight breakup due to foul play (e.g. bomb/missile): seems very unlikely such an event would exactly coincide with the change of heading.

2) Catastrophic in-flight breakup due to mid-air collision: possibly related to a change of heading but lack of any report of other aircraft being involved appears to rule this out.

3) Hijacking either by passengers or crew: the planned change of heading could have been used together with a disabling of the electronic systems to conceal a further re-routing.

4) Aircraft malfunction and/or pilot error: the change of heading could have been part of or have triggered a causal chain of events that brought down the airliner. Probably there's a few scenarios here such as, for example, the turn could have put forces on the repaired wing that caused it to fail.

It seems to me that scenarios 3 and, especially 4 are the most likely ones. Any other ideas what the coinciding change of heading and last contact might mean?
Re: 1) A bomb rigged with an accelerometer/compass trigger (essentially a smartphone would do it, programmed as some sort of inertial navigator) plotting the course of the aircraft - assuming the same flight files the same flight plan day in, day out - and then set to go off at this turn, because the perpetrator knows that at that point of the flight the AC will have reached cruising altitude and be somewhere over the sea?

A timer set to go off at XX o'clock would be a far more simple approach, agreed, if someone was plotting to bomb the AC. So just speculating.

Stanley11 10th Mar 2014 11:23


With all that speculation, I'm wondering, couldn't the cause of the accident (if it was one) simply be a human glitch?
Of course pilots fail. For example, call on the wrong frequency, fail to turn on transponder, but that usually will be rectified.
This case is truly bizarre and baffles many experts. I'm sure by now many experts, beyond this forum, had contributed and brainstormed to figure out what could've happened and based on the probabilities and resources, chased those leads.

Deaf 10th Mar 2014 11:25


Can someone point to a credible primary source that in fact there is any search activity in the Malacca Straits ? Just because the aircraft are BASED in Butterworth (on the Malacca coast) does not mean they are searching there. I can imagine the apron at Kota Baharu getting rather cluttered, so a base 200km away might be more suitable for the long-range P-3s.
Why they are at RMAF Butterworth is because:

"The base is home to:
RAAF 324 Expeditionary Combat Support Squadron (324 ECSS)
RAAF 92 Wing Detachment Alpha"

RMAF Base Butterworth - Royal Australian Air Force

A Squared 10th Mar 2014 11:25


Originally Posted by philipat (Post 8363875)
Given the likely track of the aircraft, if they are searching the Malacca Straits, why then are they not searching the land of Peninsular Malaysia?

Do you know that they are not?

Teal 10th Mar 2014 11:26


@A Squared
Besides, it looks like nobody really knows whose P-3s they are or what they're doing.

edit: I see a later posts suggest that they are US P-3s searching for MH370
Old news (yesterday) - Australia offered two of its RAAF Orion PC3s to assist in the search - No Cookies | thetelegraph.com.au

These are probably already based at Butterworth (adjacent the Straits of Malacca) where the RAAF has had a presence since the 1950s.

Stanley11 10th Mar 2014 11:26


This flight departed KUL and was heading for PEK.

I am sick of reading people's posts on here who are quoting incorrect information. :ugh:
Sir, I think you're mistaken. IF the flight was somehow commandeered, the origin or destination of the original flight becomes a moot point. They will go wherever they want (fuel permitting). Of course the original flight path would go into disguising the intent but I think you get my point.


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