Heavy Captain
 

spmd11:

I don't normally speculate (I'm a heavy Captain for a US airline with a lot of overwater experience in an ac like the 777), but I will add this, with CPDLC, HF, VHF, ACARS and SATCOM, I'll find some way to get a message out under duress.. especially CPDLC, for it's a couple of key strokes.. would take me.. 5 seconds, tops
my theories fall into these two areas:
1. Hi-jack (terrorism from outside or crew)
2. Hypoxia event leading to incapacitation of all life on board.. (has happened in the past)


Could you please elaborate on Hypoxia (or for that matter aircraft air supply suddenly contaminated with some kind of life ending substance). I believe this is the only angle that has not been debated to death on this forum.

Perhaps they are in over their heads, in terms of the amount of experience they have in handling such an event. I find the vitriol directed at the folks dealing with public information release to be misdirected.

They are confronting a novel situation with the Information Age Jackals hounding them at every step. I think those gents are learning "on the job" what it takes to handle public information releases. The number of ways one can screw that up is legion! (Plenty of American politicians fall into that trap, "You're doing a helluva job, Brownie!" coming to mind in re Katrina).

If you look back a few dozen pages, a trained American PR official from US Seventh Fleet spouted a load of tripe about floating DFDRs and CVRs. It's not just that the Commander ought to know better. FFS, he's from an "open society" and was formally trained in how to do this ... and he still stuck his size nine and a half dress white shoe into his own mouth. :mad:

The gents from Malaysia are from a different culture, and IMO are doing the best that they can. It doesn't help that the amount of info they have isn't:

(a) helping the SAR effort produce a result
(b) making the Information Age Jackals happy

I sincerely believe that they want to find that airplane so badly that they can taste it. These guys are human beings, imperfect like all of us, with hearts.

@ EdmundSpencer
Thank you - that is most illuminating!

Out of curiosity - why VHF with Singapore initially? Naively, I would have expected you to be out of VHF range with Singapore as it's further south than KL and you're heading north-east.

RE SPORKY AND OTHERS ( # 2206)
 

...Watching the news conference, it is blatantly clear the Malaysians are in disarray ...


AS I recall many years ago someone said "
Its almost impossible to resolve the difference between incompetence and mendacity in a news conference absent other clues "

survival scenario
 

If we assume a hijacking and further assume those hijackers are not suicidal - perhaps having a mercenary rather than a political motive - where and how could they get the plane down in a deserted spot at which they could retain control over the situation: making a safe landing without a runway, albeit with with the aircraft a write-off? Shallows off some deserted island where a 'recovery' team is waiting? Or are there natural hard surfaces within that considerable range (similar to salt-flats) where such a landing could be made in relative safety?

Will it ever be found ?
 

Given that no evidence has been found in the search areas we should consider the possibilities. Given that we have no real idea where the aircraft is, the potential location is limited only by available fuel and thus covers millions of square miles and we are looking for a very tiny needle in a very big haystack.

1) A crash into the ocean. The amount and nature of any surface debris will depend largly on the speed and angle of entry. Any floating debris will probably be small inconspicuous items such as seat cushions. These could easily have been missed by the existing search. If the crash was outside of the search area and on a busy shipping lane something may be spotted within weeks or months, away from shipping lanes something may wash up on shore eventually due to currents but may well be disregarded as junk. The seas are littered with flotsam and garbage so one bit of junk looks much like another.

2) A crash onto land. Any crash onto a reasonably populated area would have been reported by now but much of Southest Asia consists of forest and jungle. Any debris would be concealed by tree cover. Populations are mainly local tribes with little of no communications with the outside world.
Reports of a crash may filter out eventually but by then much of the evidence will have been recycled as free building material. Our best hope might be a painstaking examination of hi-res satellite images for evidence of recent fires.

From this we can conclude that without better evidence it is unlikely that the aircraft will be found soon. Eventually a fishermans nets may be fouled or someone may clear the right bit of forest but that could take many years.

FWIW I tend to agree with the unofficial consensus that has arisen after five days of consideration by some very experienced contributors. In terms only of "likelihood" (meaning the actual scenario could indeed turn out to be something generally considered to be very unlikely) I suggest the following:

• Interference (of which a "device" of some sort being onboard is more likely than physical interference, though it could be either).
• Upset (originating from one of several scenarios, including severe turbulence for example) and unsuccessful recovery.
• Intentional action of (one of) the flight crew

It is far less likely (for example), but not out of the realm of possibility, that a technical issue lead to a catastrophic failure and loss of the aircraft. Personally, I don't think so.

I've traveled by motorbike all over Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, and this characterization simply doesn't hold true.

Even in the smallest villages, there is electrification of one kind or another, and someone always has a dish and a TV, often communally shared. While Laos and Cambodia are probably the least connected, I stayed at only one or two villages, high in the mountains that didn't have communications of some sort.

True, there is plenty of open space and rain forest. But, there are also many. many tiny villages interspersed throughout the rain forest such that it is difficult to imagine that an aircraft crashing at night would not have been seen by someone.

INTEL101,


DrudgeReport yesterday had posted the same federal register rulemaking notice that you did. It pertains to changes going into effect in 2014 and beyond, and would not have affected the MH370 airplane. It is worthy of a discussion, although separate from the MH 370 incident.

WSSS FIR
 

Because WSSS FIR is right between WMKK & VVTS?
http://www.swld.com.au/images/air_asia_FIR.jpg
SWLD - Shortwave Listeners Delight - Civil Aviation HF Flightwatch Frequencies Asia_

Hypothetical
 

Hello.
This is my third attempt to make a post here. Maybe, as I'm new here I'm doing it wrong.
I am a licenced engineer, B747.
This post attempts to describe, with precedents, a possible single failure that would cause loss of coms, depressurisation and crew disablement due to hypoxia.

Precedent: QF30 25 July 2008 Pax oxygen bottle "explodes" tearing a hole in fuselage.

Ref: Please google "Qantas oxygen bottle explosion" and view photos of damage.
The picture taken inside the fwd cargo compartment shows one bottle missing.
there is no evidence of shrapnel damage in the photo. Therefore, no eplosion.
The bottle appears to have detached itself from its connections and propelled itself down through the fuselage skin.

777: The crew oxygen bottle is mounted horizontaly on the left aft wall of the nose wheel well structure with the fittings (propelling nozzle) facing forward. This aims the bottle, in the event of a QF30 type failure, directly into the MEC containing all boxes concerned with coms and a lot more.
Before all of its energy is spent, an huge amount of damage could be caused to equipment and the bottle could, conceivably, cause a decompression.
When the crew respond by doning oxygen mask, there is no oxygen and hypoxia is the next link in this proposed chain of events.
This link is entitled "Hypothetical" and is only that. I believe it ticks a few boxes.
Hoping this post makes it and generates some discussion.

*** Above info on position of fittings incorrect. Further research reveals... ***

TURIN

I noted your original post saying that the crew O2 bottle fittings were on the aft side of the bottle and thought that the the wind was blown out of my hypothetical sail.

However. I have done some more research on the QF30 incident and found in the Australian Transport Safety Bureau report that the bottle was propelled upward through the cabin floor where it damaged a door handle, some trim and then dove back through the hole in the floor and exited the aircraft via the hole in the fuselage... RUBBISH??? Thats what I thought.

However. There is a photo tab on the web page. The last photo of the set is of an O2 bottle sized hole in the floor panel directly above the hole in thefuselage.

The Pax O2 bottles in the 747 fwd cargo sidewall stand vertically. Plumbing on top.

The missing bottle was not found onboard.

Ref: Australian Transport Safety Bureau website

Aviation safety investigations and reports

Search: July 2008 and QF30 is top of the list

All. My hypothetical structure ofevents is purely speculative, as most here are, until we get some real facts towork with.

Thank you. Blox in.

The 777 has highly specialized software running, not your typical windows desktop, or unix for that matter. It is in that sense a generation behind the likes of 787 and A380, which are running on more 'pc like' computers. While the 777 does have a sort of central computer (AIMS) it still is not much more than a rack of proprietary (Honeywell) avionics boxes which are more tightly integrated than previous generations (pre 777).

777 has no server really, it has patches but these are general software (Blockpoints) updates. Don't think virus are an issue. Hacking wifi (if installed, might require access to the maintenance terminals) is not an issue.

Aircraft don't use the internet for navigation or communication. Some aircraft have internet capability for passenger entertainment only.

You're assuming this transition from ATC too military was contiguous. I'm sure it isn't. The military have some returns along a westerly track at FL295. They may or may not originate with the ATC flight path (I would say likely NOT). They don't know what aircraft they are from, and that's the problem.

Simply not true. Again, there is no central computer which 'controls' the aircraft. The FCS computers are anyway separate from the main AIMS (central) computers (and are triple triple redundant). The AIMS itself contains very important, but not critical avionics required for keeping the plane in the air.

What????
 

I've been out for a few hours and only heard snippets of news, but it seems that the Malaysian side are tying themselves in knots.

We have the RMAF saying they did track a plane that would fit the profile of MH370 flying back across Malaysia, then the head honcho said he didn't say that but didn't deny it was true, then he said that they actually had tracked a blip back across Malaysia. I mean, make your mind up!

The Vietnamese worked them into a corner by saying they had tracked MH370 turning west AND they told the Malaysians pretty much straight away.

Then the Malaysians said the tracked the blip some 200 (TWO HUNDRED!) miles past Penang, which would have them two thirds of the way to North Sumatra, with every indication that the blip was still flying and went out of range of the radar.

There is so much conflicting information that it's impossible to know what's really going on!

if the jet were fitted with internet suite, to be honest, thats one thing that even I would not have thought to disable never mind a hijacker. If there was any sign of kerfuffle, there would have been messages all over the place, a bit similar to the phone calls made on 9/11 by passengers on the final AA jet that went in.

As to the search area, one of two options. Its either close in to the point at which contact was lost (bomb) or its on the perimeter of a big circle determined by fuel remaining and global winds, IF, and only if, its suspected the jet flew on for whatever reason. We dont have a search area the radius of the max flight range, we realistically have those 2 options. As SAR have two potential directions, again, I suspect any wreckage left post crash floating will be found once some lateral thought has been applied to the problem. Together with satellite , if there is wreckage, they will find it soon enough.

- or somewhere in between?

Did the retired ex-BA F/O have any theories why a hypoxic crew would turn off the transponder?

Evenrude

Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Debatable
Posts: 9
Tomnod search
Interesting sattelite image found on Tomnod.

Malaysia Airlines MH370 / TomNod crowd-search - CNN iReport



this is a barge with a side boat.