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As I cannot read the last page I can only guess this has not been reported.
BBC radio 4 has just reported that the " life raft?" spotted is nothing to do with the MH aircraft. |
Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
A fairly good "round-up" of the situation by Reuters press agency :
http://reut.rs/1naDv9xe |
https://www.dropbox.com/s/pz5lankzac...AS%20slide.jpg
Malaysian Airlines evacuation slide in their training building. |
SAR
New information dated 1520 local (UTC+7 i.e. 0820Z) says a Vietnamese search vessel HQ637 has identified a "cable roll cover" or "mossy fiber roll lid" at the position where a suspected "liferaft" or "emergency slide" was earlier sighted.
So yet another false indication. Search continues... source: Dan Tri via Google Translate edit: apparently same info as beamender99's 5 minutes ago edit2: new update but very hard to make sense of. We'll see... |
A side note re: sliderafts. The B777 operator I fly for has silver colored sliderafts. It's the CANOPY which gives an orange/red color. This is separate to the slideraft and is to be installed by the crew for use on water (for obvious reasons) Anyone's know if MAS are different?
IIRC the only rafts I've ever used which themselves were yellow were those carried on B738 or supplemental carried in cabin on paxseats as part of overwater operations for aircraft normally limited to closer to land... ETA: Evenrude's pic confirms same As you can see they are pretty stinking big when inflated, certainly larger than the "door"-like object spotted earlier (which to me looked more like the plastic lav surround than a 777 door) |
Logical considerations.......
Where is the plane? Without other evidence found, on the ocean floor.
How many pieces is it in? At least two, to facilitate it sinking. Is the fuselage still intact? Substantially, yes, as typical floating debris such as clothing, cushions, life jackets may still be contained in the largely intact closed on impact cargo compartments and cabin areas. Are the wings intact? No evidence of fuel slick found. Why were there no communications made? Instant G load and rapid decompression. Could the tail section have departed company? |
One mystery PAX IDd
KL Insp General of Police says one of the users of a stolen passport has been identified.
Not Malaysian, no record of entry into Malaysia. Nationality being kept secret. |
I gathered wreckage from 182.
07.14 GMT at alt of 9,400 m, 190km off Irish coast. First wreckage discovered same day 09.13GMT. Even though it broke up in cruise, large pieces were quickly located floating on the surface and days later washed up on beaches. |
Even Taiwan is sending vessels to assist. As I mentioned before, I wonder who is the On Scene Commander? Who is co-ordinating the search effort? The Reuters link didn't work for me. Here is another: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2701720140310 |
Surfcat's estimate using the simple schoolboy physics equation:
"On the freefall time, the 3+ minute estimate is a bit off. s=ut + 0.5at^2, assuming an initial vertical velocity of 0, and initial height s=8000m (I can't be bothered to convert 35,000' to m), t would be around 40s." Is going to be a huge underestimate since air resistance is not taken into account. So the original estimate may well be not far off but for a debris field with large variation in the sizes of the pieces then there will be a range of descent times and pieces will hit the surface over an extended period of time over several minutes. |
So, let's apply Ochams razor... "the simplest theory is usually correct".
1. An inflight loss of control/structual failure. 2. A deliberate vertical descent into the ground/ocean. |
According to China.org.cn, 19 families have signed a joint statement saying that their family members' cell phones connected, but the calls hung up. The relatives have asked Malaysia Airlines to reveal any information they might be hiding, seeking an explanation for the eerie phone connections. The relatives have complained that the Malaysina Airlines is not responding as actively as it should.
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The possibility that the transponder was switched off deliberately has been raised. The only reason for doing this would be to conceal where the aircraft is going next.
Either the flight crew or others who overpowered them are the only two agents who could do this. The commander of the flight has been widely reported to have a "flight simulator" at his home. Might be interesting to see what scenarios he has been running recently... |
Anti Skid On, the page numbering slips a bit as posts are deleted.
To correct for the record, Hamster3null wrote: In case of AF447, even though the location of supposed incident was poorly known, pieces of wreckage were spotted from the air during the second day, before any ships even had a chance to get to the site, and first bodies were being pulled out of the ocean in 5 days. In case of TWA 800, a large piece of the wing was found in the ocean the day after the incident. Finding no trace of the aircraft at 60+ hours after it goes missing, in a densely populated region, is quite unusual and the media is justified in making it an issue. The center tank explosion on TW800 was witnessed by many. Image below is a reconstruction of the sightlines of various witnesses. See image at: http://twa800.com/images/witnesses-sightlines.jpg SAR knew exactly where to look immediately. |
Originally Posted by amos2
(Post 8363651)
So, let's apply Ochams razor... "the simplest theory is usually correct".
1. An inflight loss of control/structual failure. 2. A deliberate vertical descent into the ground/ocean. 2. Why? I would suggest a Pan Am 103 situation but the curious bit is lack of wreckage so far. |
I presume standard ICAO SARPHASE procedures where followed? The same timescales happened with AF447, SAR was only launched after the aircraft failed to make contact anywhere beyond its remaining endurance. An overwater SAR mission is a very costly exercise, and diverts scarce resources which potentially might be needed for another emergency. Such resources are not sent off on wild goose chases until at least the basic facts are gathered and analyzed. |
Primary search radar
100 miles is low, in my experience going back to the 70's the detection range for our search radar was in excess of 200 miles. Of course modern civil radars are quite different and may not be designed to have a very long range capability.
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For What Its Worth
In Taiwan, the head of national intelligence said a telephone call had been received on March 1 suggesting that an extremist Muslim group from China’s ethnic Uighur minority would mount a terrorist attack on Beijing International Airport – but added he did not believe the call was linked to the vanished airliner. Police told local media the caller had rung from the southern Chinese city of Guangdong. He had spoken first in French, claiming to be an anti-terrorism official from that country, and then switched to the southern Chinese dialect of Cantonese. But Tsai De-sheng, the head of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, told state media he did not believe the warning was “highly correlated” with the vanished airliner. Similarly, a Chinese Internet activist and journalist based in New York said he had received an email claiming the plane had been attacked in protests at Chinese “oppression and persecution” of its Uighur minority. The email, sent from an untraceable hushmail account, said the attack was also a personal act of revenge against the Malaysian government, which has “cruelly persecuted me before.” Wen Yunchao said he had given the email to U.S. authorities, but had received an avalanche of attacks by email and Twitter for releasing it to the media. In February, Human Rights Watch criticized Malaysia for repatriating to China six Uighur refugees seeking asylum there, saying it had put the men’s lives in danger; Malaysia also sent back 11 Uighurs in 2011. Earlier this month, knife-wielding assailants killed 29 people at a railway station in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming, in one of the worst terrorist attacks in the country’s history. The Chinese government said the perpetrators were separatist Uighurs from the western province of Xinjiang. Nevertheless, to move from knife attacks to international terrorism and downing airliners would be a massive leap for Uighur extremists, who are not thought to have strong links to the global jihadist movement. |
Starting to look this way. Could the Malay Govt be covering up the fact that they took this plane out, because it was a security threat (hijacked, full of fuel, heading for KL)??:eek: 1) Having an interdiction of this kind is a very messy event. There will be repeated comms challenges, fighters being scrambled, fighters challenging the flight crew (even if no reply), firing warning shots, and then finally shoot down. 2) All these will be done in air traffic radio frequencies and emerg freq such as 243mhz and 121.5. There will be a lot of aircraft that will hear these calls. 3) The determination of that it is a rogue aircraft, scramble aircraft for intercept, attempt to force down and finally shoot down will take a long track. It should also be very visible. Trust me, no one would want to shoot down a commercial airliner unless absolutely necessary and that would mean that it is reaching a no-penatration line. 4) Finally, a shoot down is really messy. And there is no silver bullet. Despite what you think about modern air to air missiles, they are not that fantastic. Where do you want the impact point, left or right engine, fuselage, etc. You are very limited in controlling that, unless you use guns. I think I'd better stop with these details. I would like to kill speculations on this part because if this kind of scenario gets to the families, it'll just hurt them more. PS: To add a point. If it is really this scenario, the govt would now be showcasing the reasons for the take down and not cover it up. Post 9/11 era, the logical explanation would be to minimise collateral damage on the ground, etc and painting themselves as possible victims whose hands were forced by the ones who commandeered the aircraft. |
Vietnam airspace had just been upgraded to latest ADS-B ATC monitoring. Flight data is downlinked twice every second. Where is the data at time of disappearance? I suspect the ADS-B transmitter had enough time to send just one packet after the sensors for speed and altitude stopped sending data to the ADS-B box which tends to indicate the sensors did not fail from the exact same cause as the ADS-B box. |
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