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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

mixture 17th Mar 2014 20:05


The very idea that someone could "hack" the aircraft systems is so laughably ridiculous I really don't know why I'm bothering, but for the sake of my sanity...
Well said GarageYears, and sort of how I feel too when people here give Teso yet more stupid publicity ! :ugh:

220mph 17th Mar 2014 20:15


Originally Posted by bratschewurst
Had there been a truly robust system for flight tracking in place that reported 3D position every minute or so from takeoff to touchdown:

As others have noted above - what you describe largely exists - at least as far as flight tracking - it is comparatively low cost to install and to operate. It is standalone, unconnected to aircraft systems, which should make it largely tamper-proof.

Welcome | spidertracks

bratschewurst 17th Mar 2014 20:16

"Japan Airlines 350 Japan Airlines Flight 350 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Royal Air Maroc flight 630 Royal Air Maroc Flight 630 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Silk Air flight 185 SilkAir Flight 185 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

EgyptAir 990 EgyptAir Flight 990 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Linhas Aéreas de Moçambique - LAM 470 LAM Mozambique Airlines Flight 470 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia"

Regarding the pilot suicide theory: 5 instances in 30 years is statistically equivalent to none at all.

Say there are 100,000 or so pilots working for all the airlines on the planet at any given time. The average suicide rate in countries developed enough to have airlines of any size is, at best, a guess, but 10 per 100,000 would seem reasonable based on this chart (which is based on World Health Organization data from 2011). Given that a large majority of pilots are men, and male suicide rates are generally higher, 10 per 100,000 may even be low.

So, over a 30-year period, there would have been approximately, and at least, 3,000 suicides by airline pilots. 5 of those might have been suicide-by-loaded-aircraft. Statistically that's zero plus noise. And none of those five seem to have involved the kind of advance planning and convoluted thinking that would be required in this case.

No, that's not dispositive. Yes, pilot suicide has to be considered as a possibility, based on what's known to date. But I suspect we would have heard days ago if there was any real evidence to suggest that pilot suicide was really plausible, as opposed to simply one of many possibilities.

It's worth noting, by the way, that Malaysia has the third-lowest suicide rate of the 192 countries listed.

cairnshouse 17th Mar 2014 20:18


A security failure at some point resulted in a person or persons, as yet unknown, interfering with the flight crew's performance of their duties, for the purpose of terrorism. The crew died trying to thwart that effort, resulting in the tragic loss of the aircraft and all on board. As for why no group has yet claimed responsibility, they failed. Whatever building or major city was their target is still intact. No terror group will advertise their failures.
This plane flies west over the populated land of a relatively sophisticated country. Yet no-one with any recollection of UA 93 makes a call from a concealed phone.

Either the passengers are dead, unconscious or unaware what is happening.

Airbubba 17th Mar 2014 20:18


There seems to be a common misconception throughout this thread that ACARS is sending back position reports constantly. It doesn't.
Perhaps not constantly but ACARS on some planes it definitely sends out a periodic position report.

Here is hobbyist software that will plot those ACARS position reports:


PlanePlotter plots aircraft positions, altitudes and times decoded from the message traffic that it receives. These include embedded position reports, AMDAR reports and ADS reports contained in ACARS messages,
PlanePlotter from COAA

Also, see:


Can ACARS send postion, altitude and heading information automatically?

ACARS itself can not, but other systems like the Flight Management Systems (FMS) or ADS-C on board the aircraft can use ACARS to send reports like this automatically, and in some cases they do.
avionics - What data does ACARS send back to base? Can it be used to track a plane? - Aviation Stack Exchange

Looking at VHF ACARS logs, some carriers seem to still spit out a periodic position on ACARS, others don't, perhaps like the engine data, depending on the avionics, service providers and level of service purchased.

Commercial versions of ADS-B tracking software may have already rendered this ACARS position reporting obsolete but there is a lot of legacy stuff at a money losing national carrier from my past experience.

GarageYears 17th Mar 2014 20:20

@Trackdiamond: Have you EVER worked with ANY aircraft avionics, especially a T7s? Well I have. I worked for many months on a Level D T7 flight sim, which happened to use the AIMS avionics boxes... and a complete bastard they were to integrate. I won't expand on this, except to say that even with access to the source code and all interface diagrams, etc, all that was possible was to stimulate the system. There was absolutely no way to back-door into the system to allow the injection of simulated malfunctions, and other simulator behaviors. So, I'm bloody sure some Johnny with an Android phone is out of luck.

Dumbo Jet 17th Mar 2014 20:25

Various
 
Apparently according to MAS here was nothing hazardous in the cargo hold. We have no other information, no cargo manifest, rien, nada!

The ping is initiated by the satellite asking the aircraft if it is still active - the aircraft replies to ping only with the statement 'I am live' however that maybe configured in satellite speak. NO DATA is passed. The satellite continues to ask the aircraft on an hourly basis in order to keep the communication line open 'in case' the aircraft wishes to pass data.

There is no confirmation that the last 'reply' from the aircraft was from the ground; However we do know that if the aircraft had landed and the engines were still powered it would 'reply' with an 'I am live'.

The passengers have not responded because why bother taking mobile phones at gun point when you can just 'dump' the cabin and then take the aircraft up to 45000 feet or so (I say or so because primary radar cannot confirm with the parameters it has it was exactly 45000 feet) to make the process faster!

I think the answer is going to be a combination of several scenarios already mentioned on here - amongst the more literate responses. Which ones who knows - but my personal opinion is Murexway at #5488 was pretty close together with a previous poster who also mentioned cabin dumping and once dumped surely the cockpit is going to get pretty cold! Something not even a SIM can prepare you for!

givemewings 17th Mar 2014 20:27


affixed to the inflatable slides which double for rafts in the case of an on water landing.
Heli-phile, again that does not make sense to me because it would not be 'logical' in the minds of the beancounters... it also assumes that particular slide/raft makes it off the airframe.

Are they any actual, documented airlines who have this setup? I'm just really curious now... as I said I have flown on more than 10 aircraft types and have never seen/heard of this setup...

msjh 17th Mar 2014 20:27

Hacking
 
I have some experience as an ethical hacker, starting in the 1970s.

1995 era code on an aircraft is perfectly hackable; quite easy in fact.

Now I am not saying this happened. I have no idea what happened. But hacking is not out of the question, even if the code is not accessible over a network.

oldoberon 17th Mar 2014 20:27

by oldoberon

Also you could only shadow from radar in on direction., so if crossing air defence you are still likely to be picked up at radar overlap points.

Originally Posted by jugofpropwash (Post 8384001)
It does seem unlikely - and extremely difficult if not impossible to actually do - but we've already seen that radar coverage is a bit lax in the middle of the night. If an operator did see what appeared to be a 777 shadowing another 777, what would be his first instinct? I suspect that it would be that he's seeing some sort of echo or ghost artifact, rather than that someone really is trying to do that in a jumbo jet. Chances are, it might be ignored - or that the radar repairman might be called.


that quote is of one of my post and your response is fair point

MG23 17th Mar 2014 20:27


Originally Posted by GarageYears (Post 8384060)
The SATCOM system continued to receive SATCOM pings.... oh, I give up -> READ THIS:

TMF Associates MSS blog » Understanding ?satellite pings??

That's a good summary that's consistent with everything I know on the subject.

deadheader 17th Mar 2014 20:29

north
 
Unnamed "top officials" close to investigation team:


''While the ongoing search is divided into two massive areas, the data that the investigating team is collating is leading us more towards the north"


(Published by SMH)

SLFgeek 17th Mar 2014 20:33


Originally Posted by cairnshouse (Post 8384097)
This plane flies west over the populated land of a relatively sophisticated country. Yet no-one with any recollection of UA 93 makes a call from a concealed phone.

Keep in mind that on 9/11 much of the US still had AMPS cellular service, and there were many dual mode AMPS phones about. AMPS is now completely deactivated in the US. Some countries never had AMPS, and began service with GSM. AMPS had longer range and better coverage than GSM.

If people were able to actually place cell phone calls from UA 93, it may have been over AMPS (although one mention way back in this thread suggested they used a special aircraft phone service).

GarageYears 17th Mar 2014 20:33

View inside the EE compartment
 
HawkEye Media Boeing 777 Avionics Compartment VR Panoramic Photography

The EE bay is not accessible from the cockpit. It is accessed via a door in the floor in the vicinity of the forward entry door.

Boeing-777 - Warbird Photo Album

Ian W 17th Mar 2014 20:34


Originally Posted by Jumpjim (Post 8384038)
Once again, ACARS DOES NOT DO POSITION REPORTS WITHOUT BEING LOGGED ONTO ADS!!!! The ground systems cannot setup a contract without the aircraft logging on.

If the pilots haven't logged the ADS onto the FIR ADS address the ACARS will not send position reports. ATC cannot log on to the aircraft without the pilots requesting it first as far as I know.

There seems to be a common misconception throughout this thread that ACARS is sending back position reports constantly. It doesn't.

Do try not to get too excited. :)

The ACARS reported the Waypoint Change so it was contracted to do so, which shows that the ACARS was logged in on a contract with Sebang. There were also routine health monitoring reports every 30 minutes as the expected one after 1:37am local was not received.

ex_matelot 17th Mar 2014 20:35


to try to shadow a 777 would be not possible ( read some pages back ). Also military operators do not look at the blips but track symbols. Depending on the radar you would get two very overlapping symbols (one identified, the second not), drawing attention to the situation.

The best chance to fool the military is to fly like everybody else on a published airway. Chances are best you will not be discovered, even if not automatically identified. Unless there is a very good relationship between military radar and ATC, nobody will raise an alarm in the middle of the night.
I'd advise people to disregard the above quoted. It is wholly wrong on several points. I speak from years of experience operating several different types of medium / long range air defence radars,associated command systems and datalinks. The bread & butter is in the "blips" - the track idents come afterwards in many cases. I could go on but that would be a bit naughty.

surfcat 17th Mar 2014 20:39


View inside the EE compartment
HawkEye Media Boeing 777 Avionics Compartment VR Panoramic Photography

The EE bay is not accessible from the cockpit. It is accessed via a door in the floor in the vicinity of the forward entry door.

Boeing-777 - Warbird Photo Album

That's an amazing room. But don't tell O'Leary as he'll want a few more seats down there.

OleOle 17th Mar 2014 20:41


It would be very interesting to see a plot of the distance to satellite rings for the all the SATCOM pings which should have occurred about every hour after 01:07.
I mentioned earlier that the geometric problem still would be symetrical (to the axis satellite position projected to the ground <-> LKP). For determining if it's the northern or southern arc it wouldn't help.

glenbrook 17th Mar 2014 20:51


Originally Posted by VinRouge (Post 8380536)
Doppler from multiple geostationary sats would give you derived heading, speed and possibly location. It's how the Americans tracked Sputnik.

Doppler is no use in this case.
For a start Sputnik was moving about 7km/sec relative the ground and because it was in low-earth orbit the motion relative to a ground observer was very high.

A Geostationary satellite has no motion relative to a fixed point on earth, and the only motion relative to the aircraft is the component of its velocity moving toward or away from the satellite. If the a/c is moving at say 290m/s parallel to the satellite which is 35,786,000 meters away and the earth curves at about 12 cm per km, then the motion relative to the satellite directly overhead is about 3.5cm/sec. Of course at the far end of the satellite's range the relative motion will higher, but only a couple of m/s at the maximum edge of the satellite footprint. To measure a speed that small using doppler is very difficult and I doubt very much that Inmarsat is set up for that.

cairnshouse 17th Mar 2014 20:54


Keep in mind that on 9/11 much of the US still had AMPS cellular service, and there were many dual mode AMPS phones about. AMPS is now completely deactivated in the US. Some countries never had AMPS, and began service with GSM. AMPS had longer range and better coverage than GSM.

If people were able to actually place cell phone calls from UA 93, it may have been over AMPS (although one mention way back in this thread suggested they used a special aircraft phone service).
I accept this, but one is not looking for a connection long enough to make a meaningful phone call, just a connection long enough register on the network (not even with the recipient) that a call had been made. Certainly, and obviously this is in a horizontal rather than a vertical plane,there are problems in the Dover, England area where callers connect to French mobile networks in error where the French signal is at least 22 miles away. Yet there is no suggestion any calls were made.


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