Searching around where the red and blue circle meets tells us either that JORN was on, or that for some other reason they think (or guess) that the plane did not zig zag around much after leaving the Andaman Sea. It just went straight (almost due) south at its cruising speed of about 900 km/h.

And went into the water during the hour or so after 8:11am.

The fact that Australia have now committed 3 x P3's 1 x C130 1 x 737 Wedgetail the Kiwis 1 x P3 and the US 1 x P8 Poseidon to the search SW of Perth must say something about what info they now have.

D.S. - Put yourself in the Malaysians position. This is their 9/11. They have never had to deal with anything like this before.
MAS has an excellent safety record, they're not African cowboys, despite the occasional laxity in procedures.
They're obliged to hand out some info, they're no doubt working with conflicting basic data that has to be analysed and re-analysed to ensure erroneous information is discarded.

They have to give some hope to the relatives, whilst not giving away crucial investigation lines that often involve military secrecy. It's kinda like tight rope walking, but with no end to the rope.
I don't envy them, particularly when you consider the amount of skill in planning and deceit, that went into this disappearance. It's unparalleled in the history of aviation, or any other transportation field, for that matter.

The additional horror will come when the lawyers start, and when MAS goes under, due to the run-on effect of this event on its image and revenue.

Australia (and the US ) have massive submarine detection arrays covering all that area so if the plane did hit the sea there I am sure there would be some indication.
And whoever the Captain's inlaws are does not seem to need admitting. There is no secret to his (and many other people's) political leaning.

Apologies ana1936 - your post crossed mine. I was interested also in the fact that the first search area, for which I haven't seen a map, was north and west of Cocos Islands. Now they have moved to the published SAR which is where the blue and red circles intersect. It just does bring up the question that they have chosen currently to eliminate waters closer to WA, which is likely not to be coincidental.

Thanks for your work on the mapping by the way - extremely helpful.

Clasping at straws but the hot GLEX activity around Ghanzi in Afghan could be related ?????????

The history tells that when something so mysterious happens it's a normal tendency to try to find to solve it with complicated or even sci-fi solutions,( let's see Amelia Hearhart disappearance in 1937, it was even told that she could have been captured by the Japanese soldiers and kept prisoner, but what probably happened was just a crash in the sea because the airplane run out of fuel). So what I am thinking is that also in this case it could be more simple then what the whole world is wondering. Electrical failure, maybe fire, ACARS and Transponder failes, maybe smoke or an Hypoxia situation recognised by the crew which immediately tried to turn back to KL, tried to insert new data in the FMS ( under hypoxia you think you are doing right when in reality you do crazy things)and this could explain the erratic behaviour of the plane and then it just flew until it run out of fuel. :(

( by the way, I'm not familiar with the ACARS system, is there any alarm that the crew will receive in case it fails suddenly on its own? can the crew notice it in case it happens?)

Quite. As far as I understand events, the "criminal" interpretation all stems from a statement (by the Malaysian PM?) that ACARS and transponders were deliberately switched off.

As far as ACARS is concerned, this was subsequently clarified to confirm that an expected transmission simply did not occur. I don't think anything has been said about the transponder.

Absent a deliberate switch-off, it's difficult to see what has been confirmed so far that is inconsistent with an (as yet not understood) mechanical or electrical failure, possibly a fire, which culminated in loss of crew, after they had attempted a turn back to attempt a landing somewhere. The aircraft then flying on in whatever condition of autopilot or trim it was left in, until it met its end at fuel exhaustion. It's happened before.

And even a deliberate switch-off doesn't prove criminal intent...

And yet the entire world seems now to be gripped in a fever of speculation and hysteria about mysterious cargoes, government plots, hyper-terrorists, concealed landing strips, terrain-hugging airliners and Bond-like super-villains - presumably stroking white cats in high tech conference rooms!

I don't get it.

Please stop this non standard RT talk. I got handed over last night and the controller said to us, and I quote, "XXXXX 456 call XXX on 123.45. Have a good flight, see ya" it happens all the time, nothing suspicious about it at all.

SOPS, if it is my post to which you refer, you have picked up the wrong inference. RT was just another possible indicator of the professional standards by that FO and tolerated by at least two captains.

BJ,

The RT is only one aspect and a minor one.

Question. When the New York Times reports that the left turn was ",,,carried out through a computer system that was most likely programmed by someone in the plane's cockpit who was knowledgeable about airplane systems..." - is that a convoluted way of suggesting that the auto-pilot had not been disengaged?

Maybe you're missing the point - it's what he said in reply (and what they said to him at that point that prompted his response) that we're interested in. Would you not readback the frequency and your callsign before the "good night, bye, tarra, ciao, see ya" bit ?

If ATC had already given him the frequency and had it read back, then they said something like "by the way, I'll see you at the game next week", then you might say "All right, good night". But if the good night was in response to the frequency handover it was just a bit lax that's all ;)

Odd shaped search pattern. Any ideas?
 

Today's search pattern is a funny shape. Anyone know why?

The press kit for the Aussie SAR operation for 18th is at: https://drive.google.com/folderview?...1dxMzdSTHRMeW8 (previously posted in this thread).

I tuned into WMKK ATC this morning (mid morning Malaysia time) and the very first thing I heard was 'Roger that"

'Good Night' + 'Good Morning' it's said all the time with ATC here in Asia when not in a busy area. Nothing to be suspicious about.

I completely agree with the points you make about the quality of the code. It is difficult to have a debate in an open forum for obvious reasons. However, I stand by my claim.

Best quote in 11 days.

Strange
 

If the transponder stopped transmitting, ATC is always quick to let you know. Nothing was said from ATC about this, not even when handed over to Vietnam Control :rolleyes:

Will there be any (Malaysian) press conference today?

Me too. It does niggle.

Presumably the SAR operation would not have been activated until the aircraft was overdue Beijing at 0630, plus some slight margin. I believe that's the norm. Sunrise wasn't until shortly after 0600 that day, anyway. The operation had been activated by the time of the MAS press release at 0724, but the last "ping" was at 0811, little more than three-quarters of an hour later. They'd have been very, very lucky to have overflown the incident site in the first hour or so of the search, even if they were airborne and on station by then. Yes, I know the sea area is shallow, but human beings miss things, and stranger things have happened.

Publicly at least, the abandonment of the search east of the peninsular seems to have been driven by the Malaysian military radar contacts, which the authorities weren't convinced by for several days, hence the divided search.

I hope they were right in their eventual choice.