bunk exceeder
IF the ELT went off, then Sarsat MIGHT pick it up. The system is not flawless, on both the beacon and satellite sides. There has been no mention from the authorities about an ELT signal, so presumably a signal has not been received. When a signal is detected, alerts go to multiple locations, so there isn't a concern that someone somewhere missed the alert.

Mike

Now, if we can call fact the diversion to the west, the airplane surely would have been picked up by radars if it had overflown PAK/IND or other country with military air force.

Hence I believe, again, IF it flew westward, that it lies somewhere in the bay of bengal. Although the pings from the satellite seem to indicate it flew for 5h, I just can't believe no military force could have spotted it, if over their territory.

At the risk of adding 'facts' to this discussion.

Many airlines have chosen (or been mandated by their local CAA) to lock the MEC access hatch from underneath. It is often a bolt that requires two spanners to undo it or it can be a spring loaded shoot-bolt. I have seen both used on the same aircraft type by the same airline (not Malaysian).

Opening one of these locked hatches from the cabin would not be a quiet affair and would need considerable effort.

On the other hand if someone did manage to conceal themselves below until the time was right, the hatch is usually covered by a velcro sealed carpet. Not easy to push open from below.

Sorry to butt in.. I'll put my tinfoil hat back on now.

yes it would but it didn't so most likely not in the drink?

ELT is set off by an impact (G-switch?) I think. Not being submerged.

It is the FDR/CVR pingers that are water activated.

I still say, makes no sense to "steal" the plane without knowing for sure you can't be tracked. How could they know for sure all the cell phones in the back were off? How did they know who had radar coverage and where? Impossible for criminal-minded to know all those countries abilities or status like that. One AWACS or P-3 in the area unknown to them could undo their whole plot.

How could you be sure someone at your intended destination wouldn't notice or report Maylasian T7 arriving/parked/refueled/departed? Surely they had to have all the details worked out and this only works if no one knows where they went. Impossible to iron all that out. One slip-up and their whole plan unravels.

Hard to say if Maylasian knows where/what happened, but all of the countries in that area with AD radar have reasons for a shoot-down, and a propensity to cover it up by keeping quiet. If they didn't shoot it down, they'd still keep quiet. I'd like to think negotiations are ongoing and a team is assembled to get to the aircraft and passengers, but that all seems just way too complex and too much drama for real life.

I agree that there will be a need to mandate/put a system onboard commercial acft for either passive or active pinging equipment. I would think a low wattage system could be installed that would be isolated from system, but able to relay info in regular intervals. Maybe initially only required for Oceanic flying or rtes with more than 100 miles of non-radar.

Ettore, I'm cool. I'm just wondering why a bi-national global system of ELT sniffing satellites has not been mentioned among the pictures of people straining to look out of windows on maritime aircraft and surface ships bobbing through the water? Without saying whose ELT it is, shouldn't AN ELT be detected were it to go off? The little yellow ELT in our 172 then backs it up with a GPS signal reducing the accuracy circle to 50M. I sort of assumed the one in my old Jumbo had that too.

As for attaching Lat/Long to ACARS messages and live streaming FDR info, this soon to be system would appear to allay many concerns about proper ATC and position information, without breaks in coverage, full time, at long last:

Aireon Global Leadership

Perhaps there would be merit in eventually transmitting FDR-like information real time for certain critical parameters such as red EICAS stuff.

Maybe a picture will help you understand. Even if you had 100 satellites in a line there would still be a ghost point on the other side of the line of satellites with no way to determine which was the real point. The only way to determine the real point from the mirror image ghost is to have one satellite that is not on the same exact line (yes I know the earth is round and that this is really a 3 dimensional issue).

http://i.imgur.com/5XrKO5B.jpg

Just from the perspective of technical feasibility, with no real theory (new or proposed) resulting:

a) pilot (or someone) pre-programs left-turn VAMPI before IGARI is reached. This is before 1:07 and so appears as an ACARS event

b) ACARS off or gone, no more events logged and reported

c) pilot (or someone) programs or turns 40 degree course correction for reasons unknown, but could be to lessen suspicion of Vietnam ATC. No ACARS so no record of this

d) as soon as 40 degree turn is achieved, then left 180 degrees to VAMPI, no ACARS now so no report of this...

with some "mastermind bizarre logic" ascribed to this sequence of events, it would at least "explain" what barrel_owl or others are questioning?

Hi, Bunk.

Glad to see you're right back on track. Took a bit of explanation. Was worth it. Thanks :)

Can I put the VATSIM idea out there, please, helmet back on again too

Turin

The fix ELT on the 777 can be set off manually in the flight deck or by impact (G-switch) The aircraft also carrys 2 ( depending on airline this number) portable 406 MHz ELT. The are activated by water and located by the doors. The have a floatation material over it and an antenna. Unless it is manually release from its stowage it will not float to the surface like a bouy and transmit. so it will sink to the bottom. The CVR and FDR have an ultrasonic beacon bolted on each of the and they will transmit away underwater

Wonder if anyone can put the Asia chart up from here

http://www.planningcharts.de/

Could a commercial pilot please take us through the following for clarification, which I'm sure has already been covered in the great morass of this thread's history?

Air Traffic Control: Routes are segmented, aren't they? In other words, the pilot's last words were "All right, good night." What was said by ATC in the previous transmission, of which this was the answer? And doesn't it follow that at the time when leaving one segment of ATC, and being handed off to the next, that there is a change of radio frequency, with the next segment expecting the transponder I.D. Wouldn't the a/c be queried by the next ATC? Or does it fly into a blank distance with no ATC? At some point, ATC somewhere must have been calling them repeatedly.

redmin888

Thanks for the full explanation I wasn't aware of the ability to set the ELT off from the f/d. I'll be looking for that switch tomorrow, be sure. :O

Satellite footage from DigitalGlobe, middle of Malacca Strait
 

http://s29.postimg.org/4m494l5jr/128148.jpg

Zoom and contrast adj on lower left corner
http://s16.postimg.org/bjvby1s2d/zoom.jpg

source : Tomnod
(Replace "challenge" by "api" in url to get the coordinates)

TheShadow ... not sure what you are saying? No altimeter, no heading etc? Even with all of the electronic flight instruments inop you still have your backups. Analog altimeter, artificial horizon, Airspeed, and compass. Everything you need to fly the aircraft.


And the pilots have to have had an awareness of where they were at when everything went down, and a good understanding of the general area. Turn towards land - and fly the aircraft and find an airport.

At altitude, even at night, with generally decent weather, it would seem it should not be that hard to keep the aircraft in the air, find land and an airport ...

I dont get it about the angular rings from inmarsat.

There seems to be about 300-450km between each 5 degree ring.

Inmarsat is at 35.786 km altitude. 5 degrees from that will be about 3110km... just would like to se where they get this scaled rings from ?

This thread has certainly brought out the "analysts" whose textbooks are films like "To Catch a Thief," "James Bond," "Mission Impossible" or the "Oceans #" movies. I would prefer to take instruction from analysts whose "texts" were actual science classes, SAR or aviation experience.

That said, as someone who is a professional in decision analysis, the smart money should be on a chain of events that are consistent with one another. Not a parley bet of several one million-to-one chances.

What appears to be an important chain of consistency in terms of all of the information that we have is that every significant occurrence seems to have the effect, intended or not, of making it harder to track the location of this plane.

• Comms termination as are crossing FIRs
• ACARS termination
• Travel backtrack between Malaysian and Thai airspace at FL295
• Feint to the north, then heading to the south

I have seen no simple explanation of why all of these strange events should occur other than because some sentient individual is willing them. All of them suggest that this individual doesn't want this plane to be found, ever. If this person wanted to head to the Stans, why didn't they commandeer one of the many flights from KL that head towards Europe? Far few tracks would need to be covered. The idea that this plane secretly landed is beyond far-fetched. Further, I see hundreds of millions of dollars being spent by dozens of governments looking at sea, not at land.

While I have no crystal ball, it seems certain that this individual had to have extensive knowledge of T7 systems, as well as extensive knowledge of flight surveillance systems in SE Asia. This individual would also have to be well-placed to effectuate this plan on the plane. One of the flight deck crew seems to be the most likely possibility. Shooting the companion pilot or getting him off the flight deck and then turning off the A/C packs and opening the outflow would incapacitate everyone behind the flight deck door in short order -- especially if the altitude was in the >FL350 range.

The aforementioned analysis is based on consistent logic. I am not a psychologist and cannot venture a guess as to why this pilot may have done this. Hatred at MAS, hatred at the Malaysian government, upset at home situation -- or perhaps wanted to end his career as a lost icon that lives forever in aviation history -- such as Amelia Earhart or D. B. Cooper.

All of this suggests that this plane headed southwest into the furthest and deepest location of the Indian Ocean -- say halfway between Australia and Diego Garcia. Given the remoteness of this area, its bad weather for surface navigation, and its great depth, this is where the plane was crashed.

While I hold out hope that we may find some floating evidence of the crash, I am betting that in my remaining lifetime the actual plane will not be found, and no final proof will be established as to exactly what happened, or why.

points of reference regarding aircraft data comm systems
 

Like all modern aircraft with EICAS/ECAM display systems, most of the 777 cockpit panels are merely control interfaces, or in Boeing vernacular, CDU's. The actual units are generally racked in the EE bay and not at all user friendly as to disablement.

The transponders are an easy disable - switch them to standby. Done. However, to prevent the ACARS system from transmitting data requires a bit more work. On the 777, ACARS is an integrated part of the AIMS and as such, has no off switch. One can disable the reporting module of the AIMS by either pulling specific CB's located in the EE bay (ACARS modem), de-racking the primary units (2 - ACARS modem LRU's) located in the EE bay AIMS cabinet, or (simplest method) by accessing the ACARS page on an FMS CDU and switching the data link to an unused frequency, deselecting ACARS downlink, or putting all 3 VHF radios in voice mode.

Similarly the SATCOM system is also fully integrated and while there is a control page available via the FMS CDU, there is no off switch. The cockpit CDU can however change birds and channels, but according to a senior maintenance engineer, this action would trigger a logoff signal to be sent heavenward. That signal is not part of the current set of known facts.

According to information we have so far, it appears the ACARS was disabled, while the SATCOM system remained active, allowing the aircraft to be known to be flying 4-5 hours after last comms were received.

As a side note, under current software revision, there is an FMS CDU page which will show the status of an active SATCOM link - and again going by facts known at this time, the interlopers were likely unaware of this CDU function or failed to understand the system fully. The information so far suggests the interlopers were knowledgeable at least to the level of an experienced 777 pilot, with some additional knowledge of the rarely used FMS pages to disable the ACARS.