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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

Sheep Guts 15th Mar 2014 01:22

Is the data erroneous ?
 
The primary radar plots from the Malaysian military need to be confirmed with civilian counterparts and other military. If they can't they need to run a live test. Get a B777 and fly it on the SAME track and see what their radar returns are like. They could do this today just coordinate all agencies. Malay, Thai and military.
The area where these returns are reported is high traffic area. Flights to India to Phuket, Langkawi, Penang, Hadyai, Krabi etc etc. Also is this primary radar data accurate, with jumping flight levels sounds like different targets to me.

The Immersat info needs to be made public. Tell us what they exactly have. If it's just dumb keep alive pings it's next to useless. If they have plots they need to come forward.

island_airphoto 15th Mar 2014 01:24

I know how to navigate by stars, but I learned it on a boat. It was not taught when I was in flight school in the 1980s.

Passenger 389 15th Mar 2014 01:24

Onetrack,

Weren't the Kiwi rig worker "eyewitness" (who may well have seen something, just not the missing plane) and those 8 "earwitnesses" on the coast of Malaysia situated hundreds of miles apart? (Perhaps 750km or more, judging by one map posted earlier). Seems a mighty long way for either (let alone both) to have seen and heard a 777 "vaporize." It wasn't Krakatoa.

SOPS 15th Mar 2014 01:24

Star navigation wasn't in the syllabus in 1977, when I did my ATPL. I have seemed to survive over 20000 hours without it.

mickjoebill 15th Mar 2014 01:28

Remember that cabin crew have access to portable bottled air, the question is would this supply outlast the endurance of the pilots supply?
Temporarily venting air may not guarantee permanently disabling all of the cabin crew?

MountainBear 15th Mar 2014 01:29


In that case there would have been an emergency call or at least a brief 7700 squawk. Even Swiss Air managed to talk to the controllers even as molten metal was raining in the cockpit.
That all depends on the nature of the fire and where it began. Contrary to assertions it doesn't require a "raging" fire or "molten metal" to take out the comm systems. It is possible that some of the electrical systems were disabled on the plane before anyone smelled smoke or even realized there was a fire. Anyone who is interested in fire on board airplanes should read the entire accident report of the UPS 6 crash in the middle east (2010).

http://www.gcaa.gov.ae/en/ePublicati...013%202010.pdf

olasek 15th Mar 2014 01:37


That all depends on the nature of the fire and where it began
Then find an accident with fire which (roughly) fits data of this accident, so far you aren't even close.
Even on this UPS 6 flight you cite, with extremely fast spreading fire, the crew had time to declare emergency.

DWS 15th Mar 2014 01:49

FWIW re updated info
 
If you have cable- and access to Megan Kelly and rebroadcast- she has a panel of pilots, FAA, ex military, etc and spending the whole hour on the issue

debunking some, and trying to verify other info

I'm sure it will be rebroadcast ( i'm on PDST ) its 645 pm now,and her program will be on again at 9 pm my time

She also had by phone andy pastor of WSJ

On ex military type ( navy captain ) made an expected comment he doubted that then Pentagon/Navy would dispatch military assets into the Indian ocean just to give the troops sea time . . . . ( paraphrased )

And most believe then US has much more info than released

And most now believe it was a criminal act . .

One pilot explained that if pilot dumps pressurization at 30 K or higher, then passengers will be goners after a while …

Pinging is supposed to be on 1 hour intervals . .

SMOC 15th Mar 2014 01:52


Phugoid Motion
I'll probably get deleted again, but still wondering after days why no one seems to have mentioned Phugoid, up & down motion lack of control, to explain staying in the air for hours without reaching an airport, and now, confirmation of extreme changes in altitude.

Damage to the a/c that led to lack of control leading to phugoid motion, eg. Engine Thrust only control, would allow the plane to fly around for hours with very little control over direction.

Phugoid - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Examples are:
1985- Japan Airlines Flight 123
1989- United Airlines Flight 232
I'm interested to know what role the 777s envelope protection would play in a disconnected A/P ghost flight?

Innaflap 15th Mar 2014 01:54

I habent seen it mentioned on here but CNN is saying that there were lithium ion batteries in the hold.

CNN Exclusive: Analysis shows Flight 370 crashed in Indian Ocean - CNN.com

papershuffler 15th Mar 2014 01:55

Navigation
 
As pointed out elsewhere, and IIRC already on this thread, pax could figure out the plane was off course by looking out of the window...downwards...at the dark sea they were flying over for hours and hours, when it should have been land, with lights every now and again.
That is, assuming they were conscious and the flight path went over the sea for a long period of time.

StormyKnight 15th Mar 2014 01:57


Originally Posted by JanetFlight (Post 8376597)

Jim Thompson says:
March 14, 2014 at 2:33 PM
From Reuters about a hour ago (1541 EST):

(In reference to North Sentinal Island)

A fire spotted on an island inhabited by the Sentinelese tribe was unconnected to the missing flight, Rear Admiral Sudhir Pillai, Chief of Staff of the joint command, told Reuters

“I can confirm we’ve been watching the smoke on the island by air and by boats along the coast for some time,” Pillai said.

“But we believe it has nothing to do with the missing Malaysia Airlines plane,” he added, saying that it was possible that the fire was lit by the tribe, who are known to burn thick grassland.

He added that he believed the smoke on North Sentinel island started before the aircraft disappeared seven days ago.

smiling monkey 15th Mar 2014 02:05

Even though I don't the fly the 777, it's obvious that climbing to 45,000 ft is not possible with the load they were carrying still only an hour in to the flight. 43,000 ft is the service ceiling of the 777, so 45,000 ft would be close to absolute ceiling and coffin corner, if they ever got that high.

FE Hoppy 15th Mar 2014 02:17


smiling monkey Even though I don't the fly the 777, it's obvious that climbing to 45,000 ft is not possible with the load they were carrying still only an hour in to the flight. 43,000 ft is the service ceiling of the 777, so 45,000 ft would be close to absolute ceiling and coffin corner, if they ever got that high.
You need a performance course mate.

bwohlgemuth 15th Mar 2014 02:17

Math.

40k service ceiling.
40k ft/min = 454mph = 395knots. And that's a straight nosedive from 45k. More than likely that would be at an angle of 30 degrees. Which means lateral velocity would be x3. That means a dive at almost 1200 knots. Mach 2.

45k - 40k descent = 5k to recover....

Lets say they use all 5k and skim 10 ft above the water.

40kft/min = 666.7ft/s / 32ft/s = 21g's That would be spread out over a space of 7 seconds. "ouch"

CogSim 15th Mar 2014 02:20

Summary
 
A quick summary to keep us focused:

Official Confirmed

01:07 Last routine engine data transmission
01:17 Sign off Subang ATC
01:21 SSR lost (near IGARI)

Official Unconfirmed

01:21 Malasian military PSR picks up unidentified target at IGARI
No time provided: Target moves towards VAMPI and then towards GIVAL
02:15 Unidentified target turns towards IGREX and is lost on Malasian military PSR

Unofficial Unconfirmed

- MH370 makes a sharp turn to the west (speculation?)
(presumably someone putting together SSR lost of MH370 and PSR pick up of unidentified target at IGARI)
- Acars handshake signal detected for a few hours after SSR lost (leak, via WSJ)
- Altitude fluctuations at IGARI of unidentified PSR target (leak, via NYT)

Rumors

Everything else

FE Hoppy 15th Mar 2014 02:23

The 40 descent in a minute is erroneous. The other data is from PSR and needs to be treated with caution.

The 45000ft alt is certainly attainable and probably maintainable. For all those shouting coffin corner, remember this is the absolute altitude at 1g. Not the 1.3g normally shown in your AFM. And with a zoom climb you can top out some way higher.

jet_noseover 15th Mar 2014 02:23

galaxy flyer, sloppy post from bwohlgemuth,:


Can't go 45k and then can't survive a 40k/min plunge. At any angle above 60 degrees you are supersonic. Any angle above 60 degrees, the recovery is over 20+g's.
But at the same time the T7 would shed its parts while going down 40K in one min. Not including ANY angle. Add anything above 30 deg angle and you are talking aerobatics. 777 will not cooperate in this scenario

Sheep Guts 15th Mar 2014 02:25

If this CNN report of lithium ion batteries is true, then it puts the likely hood of a Malay peninsula fly over as a maybe. The scaling down of the Vietnamese search is not a good idea.

Towhee 15th Mar 2014 02:27

Fuel? Fire?
 

. For the flight time to Beijing, the center tank would most likely have been empty except for residual fuel as a matter of 777 procedure. The main wing tanks would have sufficient fuel for the trip. Could a short that caused a spark within a fuel boost pump have ignited the trapped vapor within the center tank?

The National Transportation Safety Board attributes the explosion of TWA Flight 800 off Long Island in 1996 to this cause. That accident involved a 747 and not a 777. Boeing recommended both a mechanical and procedural modification for the potential, but not totally verified, problem for many Boeing airplanes. Airlines began the modifications within two years after the investigation was complete. Did Malaysia Airlines comply with the modification?
From an article.


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