Australopithecus It depends if your airline has been paying the bills. I worked for one that did not! But then you're into different problems like repatriation and is the money in the bank on pay day?

Sounds Detected
 

If the US or another country had a SOSUS (or similar) system near there, wouldn't it be possible to listen for an anomaly that could be the plane impacting the water. This would more or less confirm the plane crashed into the ocean.

I am still amazed that no-one in authority appears to have mentioned checking seismic recording equipment. A couple of previous posters here have mentioned it.
Seismic equipment can throw up a record of the tiniest earth tremor - and 200+ tonnes of aircraft hitting land or water at 500, 600, or 800kmh must have produced a measurable shock wave (if it has crashed, as we must presume, is the more likely scenario).

Maybe the only way there would be little shock wave is if the aircraft stalled and flew into the water nearly level, a-la AF447, at just over 200kmh.
In which case, surely there would be a pile of floating debris? 10% of the B777 construction is composite, I've been informed, so would that style of composite float? Seating, bodies, carry-on luggage, a lot must float for days?

Malaysia ask for radar data from some neighboring countries.


http://i.imgur.com/TpbYREZ.jpg

@MartinM
Minus 2 hours for lunch, of course . . . at least in the case of the Swiss ... but you know that already!

@Luke Sky Toddler
First-hand information - hallelujah! Many thanks

@Etudiant
No, it was stated that it most likely had around 7 and a half hours fuel - not the same thing at all!

Harping back to the point I made goodness knows how many pages ago, but last night my time, whilst I recognise the limitations of FR24 and the like, there are 3 transponder anomalies (as previously stated) that show up in the 90 minutes or so of interest and also in the local area.

They just happen to affect ONLY MAS370 and 2 of the aircraft nearest to it (though UA895 appears to be unaffected)

KAL672 as it passed 105.2 East at 16.55 UTC
CCA970 as it passed 105.25 East at 17.02 UTC
MAS370 as it passed 103.6 East at 17.21 UTC

This begs the question what else was in the area, perhaps travelling NW-ish at the time that had the capability to, and may have affected all 3 transponders AND ONLY THOSE THREE

Perhaps the illustrious Electronic Warfare ship that is now "assisting" with the search and whose Govt are not exactly fans of the Chinese (who themselves are in a very good position to sink the fiat dollar)?

Or should we only consider possibilities that point to Eastern and/or Muslim countries?

Perhaps nothing at all, perhaps not.

Of course you can change your aircraft ID (call sign) in the cockpit. The call sign is your flight number as in "MH 370". This changes for each flight and is not specific to any one aircraft.

I think this only applies to ADS B or CPDLC where the crew enters the flight number for the particular flight in the Flight Management Computer.

Non ADS B flights would have the Call Sign entered by ATC when they assign the transponder code for the flight.

(please correct me if this information is not correct)

I'm a current B777 pilot.

About a year ago, in response to a Boeing Flight Crew Ops Manual Bulletin (BAB-95) relating to a potential software glitch affecting the selected altitude on the MCP, the operator I fly for changed our procedures to comply. Before the change we used to leave the Altitude increment selector in the 1000s position, subsequent to the change it is now routinely left in the Auto position (i.e 100 foot increments).

Had the flight crew experienced a rapid decompression then following donning of oxygen masks, establishing comms between the two of them, checking for cabin altitude/rate and passenger oxygen as required the next checklist item calls for an emergency descent. In my company this is routinely taught as a double loop starting with selecting a lower altitude on the MCP altitude selector, optionally using HDG/TRK SEL to turn off the airway, pressing the FL CH switch (commence descent at current IAS), deploying the speedbrake and ensuring the thrust levers are closed. Once the descent is established a second sweep tidies up the altitude selected (MSA/10k'), refines the heading, increases speed if appropriate and checks again for speedbrake deployment and thrust lever closure.

If there had been an explosive decompression centred on the E&E bay that knocked out all comms equipment and the crew oxygen could it be that the initial actions of the emergency descent checklist, the first sweep, be accomplished then hypoxia set in before the second sweep could be completed?

Under the old 1000s position of the ALT SEL an anticlockwise spin would reduce the selected altitude by many thousands of feet, an anticlockwise spin of the heading could give a large heading change to the west, the aircraft would descend at current IAS (normally in the cruise at FL350 M.84 equates to 250-260Kts indicated). However if the ALT SEL was in the Auto position a quick spin would change the selected altitude by only several hundreds of feet, possibly by pure chance FL295?

This scenario could explain the lack of comms, the primary radar target tracked on a westerly routing and the fact that no debris has yet been found. At FL295 the pilots would succumb quickly to the effects of hypoxia, the passengers likewise once the passenger oxygen was depleted. The cabin crew may have transferred to portable oxygen and attempted to reach the flight deck (my company trains the cabin crew to do exactly that if the descent has not commenced within 80 seconds). However even had the cabin crew entered the flight deck would (could?) they attempt a radio call, once they removed their mask there wouldn't be much time of useful consciousness to get that call out even assuming they knew how to.

If I had access to satellite imagery I think I might extend the search out in the last presumed direction of flight to the fuel exhaustion point and see if anything was there.

Possible? Plausible?

The problem is the sea between Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia is like a puddle. It's extremely shallow, about 200 feet deep, and likely full of junk already. You can't easily use sonar. If no-one finds any debris soon, then the wreckage is probably going to be found accidentally in the end by being snagged by a fishing net.

It might also still have been moving fast enough on impact in shallow water that it embedded itself in the mud on the sea bed, muffling any pingers.

Without better inferred positions from radar and radio transmission records, the search for the wreckage may be a long one.

ploughman,

How would the cabin crew get into the flight deck to bring the oxygen if the occupants were unconscious as their oxygen was out. Is there no backup oxygen carried in the cockpit in case a crew mask fails?

Surely the whole point of new locked doors is that you're not able to break in, and so someone would have to admit the cabin crew with their bottle. A flaw in this back up plan?

You have to explain the total lack of any form of communication from the aircraft past the point of known contact.

Do these theories of total comms blackout but still flight capable aircraft hold any water.

Or SOSUS reports
 

There is an extensive SOSUS sytem in that area that would have detected a noise of that magnitude,

What's cooking?
 

I offer my apologies if this has been mentioned before, but I may have missed one or two of the plethora of theories ..... but considering the phase of the flight, would a galley fire not be a possibility?

I know not the implications regarding loss of comms.
Maybe someone can tell me.

USAF1956
FWIW, SOSUS was/is mostly a deep water system, not a good fit for the comparatively shallow water of the South China Sea. Beyond that, were there some hydrophone array in the area, a surface anomaly (short duration acoustic event) may or may not reach a given hydrophone due to the varied paths sound takes and the high ambient noise in that region. My estimate (very out of date, been some years since I did real ASW) is that there is no such hydrophone array in that region.

Hoping that SOSUS could give a datum for this search seems low to zero probability.

It is not where they are looking.
 

Old Boeing Driver asks is there is anything else to add, past that the A/C took off and contact was lost. Yes, there is. We know it took off, we know it had a competent flight crew, we know it had lots of fuel, we know it climbed to altitude, and we know it was on its intended course.

We can reasonably conclude that the A/C was on autopilot. These guys are not likely to be hand-flying that thing in the gloom of night on a long-haul.

We also know that vast amounts of assets are out looking at the water surface. Plus, lots of small boats out there, fishermen, diesel-fuel tankers, junks, coastal freighters, all kinds of stuff. We know that an aircraft impacting water is going to bust up into a vast number of parts, and a lot of those will float around. Yet, nothing is found.

That tells us that it is not where everybody is looking. So: where is it? Getting past murky reports of radar contacts in other places at different altitudes, you do have to conclude that the more logical flight path is the one the autopilot has it set on. That A/C heads North - to land. From that inference, either the A/C continues onward on that autopilot until it runs out of fuel, then crashes, or the autopilot is interrupted and the A/C goes into an uncontrolled descent and impacts terrain. We have learned that an impact into terrain at high speed will leave a small crater - in the case of United 93, only 30 feet across. Are you going to spot an impact crater in the jungle of Southeast Asia? Or does the jungle simply swallow it up?

In which case, you may never find it. Ever. Hard for us to appreciate, with our fascination with technology, yet still quite plausible.

Two comments -

RR engine data :
Given the vagaries of HF radio propagation it is entirely possible for Fort Meade to have received signals which did not arrive at RR. A simple issue of antennas in different locations. In any event I would not expect RR to make any public comment for contractual reasons.

Cockpit windshield failure :
This is a possible cause which we have not considered. Such events are rare but they have happened. This would cause explosive cockpit decompression and incapacitation of almost certainly at least one pilot.
With the captain incapacitated and the FO probably injured the shock and startle effect would leave a less experienced FO with a serious workload problem.

@ Dai Farr 'I flew SAR on Air India 182 back in 1985'


The return on that aircraft vanished at 07.13GMT. An emergency was declared at 07.30GMT and SAR found floating debris at 09.13 GMT just over 120 miles off shore. The technology they had back then was primitive compared to today, yet wreckage location only took a matter of hours.


A mid air disintegration leaves sizable floating wreckage and later washed-up debris. From my involvement the problem with the smaller washed-up debris was the general public didn't recognise them as belonging to an aircraft.

NASA Joins Hunt for Missing Jetliner | Space.com

NASA Joins Hunt for Missing Malaysian Jetliner

Hypoxic descent
 

It seems to me that while terrorism, unlawful interference, deliberate action or a government cover up of some kind are not confirmed as being completely impossible, they can’t be far off, especially given the time that has passed without any proper clues of that nature. I will admit that the Malaysia’s Command and Control of the incident so far has aroused suspicion as has the lack of a cargo report. But as many have said, the most obvious and logical causes are probably the most likely.

That gives us two scenarios.

Either the aircraft went down at the same time as comms was lost (01:21 ish) or it continued to fly for a duration (up to a maximum of 5-7 hours given fuel discussions) in a given direction.

That puts the aircraft in a number of possible locations.

In the vicinity of last comms, in the South China Sea between NE Malaysia (peninsula) and SW Vietnam. This becomes less likely every day, assuming that the search is being conducted effectively.

If it did make the possible turn back towards Malaysia, then it could therefore be on mountainous, densely forested land, or again out to sea in the Malacca Strait, Andaman Sea or even Indian Ocean.

It could also be further into the South China Sea than we think, if the turn back was radar error.

The lack of a debris field found to this point suggests that either it’s much smaller than we expect (high velocity impact in one piece, successful ditching followed by aircraft sinking, shallow dive after fuel supply exhausted) or it isn’t where we expect (flown a full 7 hours towards the un-searched Indian Ocean for example).

So far, I think the most logical explanations all include hypoxia in some form, which can easily reduce a highly functioning individual to utterly useless in 90 seconds.While I cling to the hope that at least some of those on board MH370 could still be floating on yellow rafts with a dwindling supply of airline food, I take some comfort in knowing that drifting away through the delirium and hilarity of hypoxia must be one of the most painless and peaceful ways to go, particularly in an aircraft accident.

This leaves me with questions still:

Why are land based searches not being conducted in remote and forested areas? :confused:

Why are more countries not being asked to support? Malaysia and China between them have plenty of allies with superior military capabilities which could be put to excellent effect in solving this mystery, or even locating some survivors! :ugh:

Transponder identity
 

That is not true (or inaccurate, as the guys in the pc would say). Each mode S transponder is set up before installation with a worldwide unique 24 bit adress obtained from a global registration. You cannot change this adress in flight. The adress is tied to the aircraft registration. The only codes that can be assigned or re-assigned is the call sign and the 4 digit octal transponder code.
Same 24-bit aircraft adress applies to 406 Mhz ELT broadcast.

ploughman67
 

Thanks

What would happen in your scenario to the speedbrakes and thrust setting when the selected altitude is reached and the pilots already unconscious ?

I see the main problem with this hypotheses that only transponder and acars comm equipment would have to be knocked out but all other vital electronics still working. On the other hand what happened on MH370 surely wasn't an everyday event.

BTW:It doesn't really matter but as far as I understand the 29.5 k feet was derived from that unidentified primary radar contact. Precision of that height would depend very much on angular resolution of the primary radar, so I guess it is just a best estimate give or take some 1000? feet.