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PIA A320 Crash Karachi

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PIA A320 Crash Karachi

Old 7th Aug 2020, 02:47
  #1641 (permalink)  
 
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Escape Path

Absolutely the problem goes higher, as EDLB puts it: “A fish starts stinking from the head” but you can cut to the chase by looking at the company’s safety management system directors and their direct reports when looking for who had control of the culture. For example if there’s a record of discussion as to how a flight data audit program might be designed, managed and who has oversight of it.

As the preamble on all crash comics always state, it’s not as important at least initially, to state who dropped the ball as It is to find how it was dropped. I have no doubt that Personal/ corporate liability tends to ultimately become self evident after that.

My outfit runs a pretty tight SMS involving a high level data oversight program and a closed loop incident oversight process with regular LOS audits (line observation safety audits) with very well trained staff for these purposes. We learned from previous incidents and it’s served us well.

I’m doubtful the PIA culture or regulatory oversight for that matter could be sufficiently remediated to be honest but looking at their full safety management system would be one of the most productive lines of inquiry from a root cause analysis perspective.
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Old 3rd Sep 2020, 08:07
  #1642 (permalink)  
 
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ATC Watcher

A former colleague bought himself a new VisonJet with the the autoland (Safe Return) feature

There's a number of youTube clips on the Garmin Emergency Autoland flight trials - worth checking out.

Easy for me to say in retirement, but the transition from augmented to autonomous flight control is not as far away as we might think
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Old 3rd Sep 2020, 11:05
  #1643 (permalink)  
 
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As more and more human factors accident are discovered it's natural to think of replacing them. After all humans are in the cockpit only because machines can't do it.
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Old 3rd Sep 2020, 12:23
  #1644 (permalink)  

de minimus non curat lex
 
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Originally Posted by Willie Nelson View Post
.......Iím doubtful the PIA culture or regulatory oversight for that matter could be sufficiently remediated to be honest but looking at their full safety management system would be one of the most productive lines of inquiry from a root cause analysis perspective.
If PIA hope to resume flying into EU airspace, they will undoubtedly have to produce evidence that a significant improvement has occurred, and the necessary standards will be maintained and subject to monitoring by EASA on a regular basis.

More than just one Munro to climb?
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Old 4th Sep 2020, 08:52
  #1645 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by vilas View Post
As more and more human factors accident are discovered it's natural to think of replacing them. After all humans are in the cockpit only because machines can't do it.
Until machines can think for themselves, the human factors issues will move from the liveware in the cockpit to the liveware in the software/hardware development labs... We saw this with the advent of the FBW generation of A/C in the late 80's. You can have the best technology in the world but surround it with poor processes and/or excellent processes not followed, and the technology becomes a witness to the incident.
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Old 4th Sep 2020, 10:07
  #1646 (permalink)  

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True, but you can fix faulty software written by erring humans. Not so much with erring humans killing their passengers directly in numerous ways both completely new and well know for a century.

You can develop both, but one of them is constantly trying to self-implode. The software does not forget to run coded sub-routines, humans tend to ignore lessons learned. At the same time, modern-day SOPs are already well algorithmized. All that is needed is an operator who/that will follow the script without ommisions due to lack of attention, guilt inflicted denial of facts, and egotistic creativity.

Even if you did find a solid, proper material and built a pool of trustworthy professionals, they will go retire, seek out better pastures or you need to let them go at the next downturn. And you start over and over again.

One of the best advices for aviators you'll find appeared in a post from hans brinker in the command upgrade SIM thread: "Do not do anything surprising". Software is capable of achieving that, live people are not.
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Old 4th Sep 2020, 15:12
  #1647 (permalink)  
 
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Ask the crew of QF72 if software isn't capable of doing something surprising... I have been involved with Software for many years and have lost count of how many times I've seen it do something surprising. It isn't surprising to the S/W as it's doing as it was told but it's surprising to the human as he/she wasn't expecting it to do what it did! That's the human element in software, hence my original comments. The more complex the S/W is. the more opportunities for surprises.. :-) Oh and throw hardware anomalies into the mix and it gets even more complex.

Last edited by Compton3fox; 4th Sep 2020 at 17:10.
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Old 4th Sep 2020, 15:18
  #1648 (permalink)  
 
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Though only SLF, a strong opinion follows (oh right, I'm also an attorney, so . . .)

We're communicating over the internet's pathways which undeniably have advanced rapidly in a comparatively short period of time. With great benefits.

And great problems along the pathways traveled. Criminals exploit the internet; there's a bit of smut here and there; hostilities and even outright threats pop up from time to time; and of course, there are vulnerabilities to old technology, decidedly earthside-bound, like electricity generating and distribution networks (not to berate an impersonal internet, but also there are vulnerabilities to the very same information-intensive computer and communication systems and networks which little things like hospitals and other public utilities (e.g., Chicago Center) rely upon all day and all of the night). Why this is relevant is....

Because the same logic which tells us that software and cockpit automation takes the errant human off of the controls of the civil aviation aircraft overlooks, or even ignores, the existence of potential for unwanted trouble being caused by the human programmers and coders. Humans are said to be failure-prone (which is kind of, undeniable). Why then is it assumed that the coding and algorithms and so forth will be: Pristine! Perfect! No Back Doors, Trap Doors or Stuck Exit Doors, Not Ever!!

Besides, I am still waiting for one of the "automation" gurus, or even mavens, to demonstrably prove that, just to take a probably fairly mundane or even simple example, that a set of algorithms can be written today, in 3 years, or anything not "futuristic" with regard to timeframe, which could fully account for safe operational necessities of the Delta flight over LA which dumped fuel and caused at least a publicity uproar when some of the fuel visited a schoolyard. I have said, demonstrably prove, because, I would want to see what courtroom types know as demonstrative evidence. Show me the algorithm, show me it works in a full-fidelity simulator in which positively zero of the operational variables have been, you know, slightly rounded off to make the coders' jobs look classier.

No one should or can deny automation is increasing. But the inconsistency between scoring the humans wearing three- and four-stripes on the one hand, but lofting (or is it lifting) coders into rarified air of perfect performance, just seems too much. Oh by the way, Happy Labor Day (computers, this is NOT for you).
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Old 4th Sep 2020, 17:14
  #1649 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Willie Nelson View Post
Escape Path

Iím doubtful the PIA culture or regulatory oversight for that matter could be sufficiently remediated to be honest but looking at their full safety management system would be one of the most productive lines of inquiry from a root cause analysis perspective.
Korean Airlines was in a similar situation in 20 years ago. A completely dysfunctional culture with no accountability for crew actions eventually had consequences that could not be ignored if they wanted to continue flying outside of Korean airspace. A team from Delta Airlines was brought in an the result was pretty profound changes. Korean Airlines is not perfect but it is light years ahead of where it was. Like the old saying "Sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better", maybe this accident will the catalyst for change as the circumstances are so egregious.
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Old 6th Sep 2020, 16:47
  #1650 (permalink)  
 
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If I recall from the time (and as I have also mentioned earlier in this thread), the Korean report was "leaked" and made sober reading. I have a lot of respect from them as they cleaned up their act and frankly realized it had to be done, there were no half-measures. As for PIA, suspect nothing of the sort will ever occur, too many intertwined interests that threaten the status quo, cultural issues will never allow anything of this sort ever to see the light of day. By all means quote Korea (a good example) but those that expect a Korean style epiphany will be waiting a damned long time because it won't happen.
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 07:21
  #1651 (permalink)  
 
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The leaked KAL LOSA audit is legendary, which makes me suspect that some of it at least may be doubtful, who knows, their remediation is also legendary. My understanding is that they were facing the likely prospect of being uninsurable they got in some expertise and cross cultural experience to break open the closed, face saving, practices and extant culture.

Iím not sure if things need to get really worse before they get better. Surely this is where regulators could play a useful role in being proactively engaged in airline safety management processes rather than passively reactive to these horrific inexcusable crashes that, letís be honest, are some of the more common phenomena in the current iteration of modern crash comics, think of Garudaís Jogjakarta crash as an example.
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 07:34
  #1652 (permalink)  
 
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Willie Nelson

Any idea where somebody could get a copy of that file? Wasn't able to find it on google.
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 08:06
  #1653 (permalink)  
 
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KAL Line Operations Safety Audit
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 08:43
  #1654 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by unworry View Post
ATC Watcher

A former colleague bought himself a new VisonJet with the the autoland (Safe Return) feature
There's a number of youTube clips on the Garmin Emergency Autoland flight trials - worth checking out.
Easy for me to say in retirement, but the transition from augmented to autonomous flight control is not as far away as we might think
The Garmin safe return is an emergency tool based on existing technology , I have no doubt that a more advanced version that will include vacating the runway , taxi and parking is not far away , however certifying an emergency tool is far easier that a standard feature with paying pax on the back . I am rather a believer that the future will be on Single man ops augmented with full automation and a man on the ground supervising the whole thing for more aircraft .
Time will tell, the Covid crisis might accelerate or delay the whole thing depending on which side of the fence the power will be.
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 09:18
  #1655 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/stor...-mobility.html - it's already way ahead
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 09:32
  #1656 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Anti Skid On View Post
Oh yes, great plans with Airbus . the problem is that this technology will be expensive and was driven on pre Covid-19 thinking , which you find on the first page of the site link you gave :
air traffic is expected to double by 2037. This will necessitate approximately +37,000 new passenger and freight aircraftóand more than half a million new pilots to fly them. Given this expected increase in air travel, other solutions will be required to support pilots in aircraft operations.
Covid -19 has already changed that .
That said , one old management sentence keep on coming back in my thoughts these days :
" Do not waste the great opportunities a good crisis gives you"
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Old 7th Sep 2020, 09:32
  #1657 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks a bunch!
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Old 8th Sep 2020, 08:17
  #1658 (permalink)  
 
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It was a great read, if a little dated. Does anyone remember the KAL pilot who gained his IR on an aircraft that had no engines, because it was in maintenance?
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Old 12th Dec 2020, 03:36
  #1659 (permalink)  
 
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Old 12th Dec 2020, 15:52
  #1660 (permalink)  
 
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WillowRun 6-3

Actually. thats not correct: The Internet Pathways you refer to are (almost by definition) unchanged from the original DoD TCP/IP specifications from the mid 1970's.
The Internet infrastructure is fundamentally insecure. Many corporate and private networks have added layers of security, but the internet backbone is something of a provinciaL Wild West outpost.
As a Cirrus instructor I'm well aware of Safe Return, the autonomous autoland. It's impressive; and based on 2018 processing power. It works (aside from ATC blind broadcasts) in isolation. It is one thing to select a GA Airport; quite another to land safely in a busy traffic pattern.
I love my day job seat in the A320; but the 1980's processing power afforded to the jet is great for envelope protection and flight automation. It won't play nicely in the real world for a long time yet...
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