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Hard times for Norwegian

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Hard times for Norwegian

Old 22nd Sep 2019, 13:36
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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More 787 groundings

Originally Posted by directmisbi View Post


Norwegian will deliver according latest analysts from SEB

We will see that when the Q3 figures are presented in October, and the company provides positive guidance for the challenging Q4 and Q1 periods. As the effects of consolidation from growth to profitability begin to hit in full, compensation from Boeing and Rolls Royce comes into account, wet lease of aircraft declines and one scaled-down winter program with its own planes begins, Norwegian will be on its way to profitability. Credit card issuers will release the 70% cash flow plug, provided that Q3 and guiding are delivered beyond expectation, and Norwegian is well placed to renegotiate credit terms. This can give almost normal credit card sales cash flow, when the important sales for the summer season 2020 are launched in late December, thus there will be no credit crunch and working capital under NOK 1.5 billion. The share issue ghost stays in the closet behind a locked door. CEO Geir Karlsen will deliver and had he not had faith in it himself, then the company would have already started a share issue or conversion of debt to equity to secure the company's position for the winter.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rome-blowout-turns-up-heat-on-rolls-royce-s-trent-engine-nb6svvcs

​​​​​​What now for DY ?


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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 07:50
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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perhaps the demise of Thomas Cook will help Norwegian?.
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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 11:59
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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@JonEMA - does this affect more 787s than the ones already grounded? (the article is unclear). If so this is terrible news.

With regards to TCX I don’t imagine there will be much effect as there was little route overlap and whilst TCX did offer seat only, most of its traffic was IT. I would think Tui and Jet 2 will be set to benefit the most.
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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 12:11
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Originally Posted by warkman View Post
perhaps the demise of Thomas Cook will help Norwegian?.
Norwegian operates a lot of charter flights for Ving, a Scandi branch of Thomas Cook...
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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 13:09
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Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic View Post
@JonEMA - does this affect more 787s than the ones already grounded? (the article is unclear). If so this is terrible news.

With regards to TCX I don’t imagine there will be much effect as there was little route overlap and whilst TCX did offer seat only, most of its traffic was IT. I would think Tui and Jet 2 will be set to benefit the most.
@Doors - also not sure......but I'm guessing there will be aircraft of similar vintage to the one involved in the FCO that need to be looked at asap............anyone with access to a cycles and hours Fleet database will have a better view......

Will just have to wait for news on this from DY .........but if they have to prolong wet leases as cover and/or cull their transatlantic routes as they have in Europe then it will severely hamper their ability to generate a contribution over the winter months.....
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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 15:15
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In the quoted Times article in post 61, what do they mean by grounding?
The FTSE 100 engineer said yesterday that the incident had accelerated its planned programme of replacing turbine blades in older Trent 1000 engines for the Boeing 787. It means that dozens of the 787s, flown by the likes of Norwegian, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic and Air New Zealand, will be grounded in the months to come.
Do they expect more groundings in absence of replacement turbine blades, or do they mean grounding as in “downtime” to in install replacement blades which are becoming more and more available due to RR “accelerated efforts”, effectively “ungrounding” the RR 787?
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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 15:36
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Originally Posted by golfyankeesierra View Post
In the quoted Times article in post 61, what do they mean by grounding?

Do they expect more groundings in absence of replacement turbine blades, or do they mean grounding as in “downtime” to in install replacement blades which are becoming more and more available due to RR “accelerated efforts”, effectively “ungrounding” the RR 787?
There is a plan in place to significantly reduce the amount of long haul flying this coming winter which will allow for a catch up much of Trent issues.

Things will then gear up going into spring, new type rating course are starting shortly.

Some one said recently that they have stopped their previous business model of buying aircraft then thinking about where to use them as they are delivered!!

Much of the waste of previous years has gone for good, but plenty of fat still to cut.
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Old 23rd Sep 2019, 18:11
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Originally Posted by golfyankeesierra View Post
In the quoted Times article in post 61, what do they mean by grounding?

Do they expect more groundings in absence of replacement turbine blades, or do they mean grounding as in “downtime” to in install replacement blades which are becoming more and more available due to RR “accelerated efforts”, effectively “ungrounding” the RR 787?
Who knows, but my sense is that's it's less about replacing the blades and more about the rate at which they can complete the work and for whom..

Clarity need by the airline ....
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 10:16
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A Norwegian owned company just sold 5 off B737-800. I bet they got a nice prices.
Per
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 10:44
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Originally Posted by Ancient Mariner View Post
A Norwegian owned company just sold 5 off B737-800. I bet they got a nice prices.
Per
To who? Where did you read this?
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 13:02
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Originally Posted by gravityf1ghter View Post


To who? Where did you read this?
To HK based recycler - article on flightglobal.
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 16:48
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Originally Posted by gravityf1ghter View Post


To who? Where did you read this?
A Norwegian financial web site, Min24.
On radio just now mentioned that byer was a Chinese leasing co.
Per
Edited to add:h //www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/84CDC928-3DA8-4776-A31C-F5045718F646
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 16:57
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Originally Posted by Ancient Mariner View Post
A Norwegian financial web site, Min24.
On radio just now mentioned that byer was a Chinese leasing co.
Per
Edited to add:h //www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/84CDC928-3DA8-4776-A31C-F5045718F646
If this is a sale and lease back, it is probably the beginning of the end.
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 17:38
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Originally Posted by procede View Post
If this is a sale and lease back, it is probably the beginning of the end.
It is not.
I've flown two of the individuals recently, they were just given a fresh lick of all-white paint.
Been the plan all along to sell off some of the older NGs - now... Where did we put those shiny new -8s we were replacing them with again? 😬

Seeing as there are EI-regs flown by NAS crew under the NAI AOC, company seem to have seats to fill with bums anyway.
Full interoperability for crew in all AOCs is next from what I hear.
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 18:02
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Norwegian just cancelled all flights from TRF, Torp Sandefjord to Spanish destinations. Can't remember from which date. Transferred ticketed pax to Oslo Gardermoen OSL.
One or two surplus 737 from that decision?
Per
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 22:56
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Cancelling routes left right and centre, defaulting on loans, selling off assers and incurring eye-watering wet lease costs does not add up to a well run and prosperous airline.

Unless Q3 results are spectacular, the airline will not survive the Winter.
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Old 19th Oct 2019, 10:37
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Doors to automatic

A very interesting theory but having done four airline bankruptcy’s I don’t see any of the usual indications of lack of liquidity in Norwegian.

Clearly mistakes have been made and multiple AOC ‘s might spread the financial risk but at the cost of interoperability , this problem is currently being addressed.

luck also plays a part and the problems with both the 737MAX & B787 engines have not helped Norwegan’s problems.

Looking forward it is the recruitment and training of crews to keep the fleet in the air when the 737MAX comes back and the 787 problems are sorted that will become the limiting factor in moving from a just about viable financial position to one of a highly profitable business.

The financial bond holders clearly see things the same way with bonds recently being extended for two years.
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Old 19th Oct 2019, 11:08
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The financial bond holders clearly see things the same way with bonds recently being extended for two years.
or they literally have no other choice?
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Old 19th Oct 2019, 11:48
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As a bond holder if you had payment due would you:

A) call it in immediately with absolutely no prospect of getting any money back due to that action resulting in the company’s insolvency.

Or

B) give extra time for restructuring in the slim hope you might at least get something back on your investment.

No brainer I would imagine? Hence why you can’t really use that as an indicator of decent prospects ahead.
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Old 19th Oct 2019, 16:32
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.....not to mention that the bond holders now have the LGW slots as security. Saying yes to an extension was therefore an absolute no-brainer and is in no way an indicator of the company’s future prospects, good or bad.
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