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Hard times for Norwegian

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Hard times for Norwegian

Old 8th Apr 2020, 09:31
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RudderTrimZero View Post
calypso, good point, but the size of the route network and loads suggest that Norwegian's "UK" operation out of Gatwick is/was way bigger than that of Scandinavia. In fact, even the Italian/Spanish operation would be comparable to the Scandi one.
NUK cabin crew were told at their last base meeting that only Miami was a reliable money maker for NUK. All of the other destinations break even at best. The believe has been that London was the best hope for a sizable and profitable operation, and that management felt like they were close to getting there. But the reality is that only one destination had shown itself to be consistently profitable.

Don't know of the validity of management's statements, but that is the message they presented to NUK cabin crew just a few months ago.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 12:17
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fruitbat View Post
https://www.flightglobal.com/strateg...137774.article

“HSBC believes all of the airlines it covers bar Norwegian will survive”
HSBC can “think” and “believe” all they want. Norwegian state is now the biggest shareholder in the company. Hard conditions have been put forth by the Government , not so much towards Norwegian, but directly aimed at its creditors and leasing companies. Participate in the restructuring of debt, and postpone leasing payments. Or end up with massive losses and aircraft which no one want at the moment. Norwegian could actually emerge from this crisis a lot stronger. Possibly with it's business trimmed down yes, but even more competitive than before.
”New Norwegian”, here we go

Last edited by uncle-traveling-matt; 8th Apr 2020 at 14:52.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 12:36
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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I agree. HSBC writes for investors which might indeed get wiped out, therefore their piece has some logic. Norwegian will survive simply because driving 1500km across Norway in the winter is not an option and Norwegians want to be able to go catch some sun in Malaga every now and then. On top of that who wants their basic infrastructure in the hands of Ryanair? Norway needs Norwegian; they can afford to save it so they will even If they have to nationalise it. The LH structure from European capitals to the US I am not so sure. Given time, money and a permanent fix to the RR engine issue it could become quite profitable but I fear that right now none of those are available.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 14:35
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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SVT (Sveriges Television) reporting that Norwegian has called for an Extraordinary General Meeting to discuss a proposal to negotiate its debts into shares in the company. Source here, 16:04 8/4/20.

Good luck with that.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 15:24
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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The Norwegian state is not the largest shareholder. It is the third largest, sitting at 4.15% of the shares. Hardly a massive amount.

https://www.marketscreener.com/NORWE...13204/company/
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 17:31
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ReallyAnnoyed View Post
The Norwegian state is not the largest shareholder. It is the third largest, sitting at 4.15% of the shares. Hardly a massive amount.

https://www.marketscreener.com/NORWE...13204/company/
List of shareholders(your source) is dated. Kjos is history, and already below 0.77 percent at present. Buyers are
https://m.ftf.no/?lang=en_GB and Scandi banks.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 17:48
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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You link to the front page of the sovereign wealth fund, which of course shows nothing. When you then go to the notice page, nothing is listed either: https://www.folketrygdfondet.no/flag...tegory182.html

There has been nothing in the news either. Can you please link to a page where the ownership is more updated than the one I provided?

Looking at the Oslo stock exchange website, no major transactions have taken place. https://www.oslobors.no/markedsaktiv...S.OSE/messages

It does seem odd that you, uncle, seem to know more about the ownership structure than disclosed by the stock exchange.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 07:05
  #228 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think is as simple or transparent as that. You are talking about the pension fund which manages 20 odd billion dollars but there is also the Oil Wealth Fund which is much much larger at the trillion dollar level. Not all holdings are owned directly by the Pension fund. Both funds combined also own many banks, companies and financial institutions which in turn also own all sorts of shares.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 08:34
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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The trillion dollar fund is mainly for investment abroad and it is their own statement that the fund cannot own more than 10% of a listed company: https://www.nbim.no/no/oljefondet/sl...forvaltningen/ NAS is not listed anywhere there.

This is starting to sound more and more like smoke and mirrors to present some illusion that NAS is a state carrier just because it uses the name "Norwegian". It is really not. SAS was formed by Norway, Sweden and Denmark a long time ago, but Notway sold its shares in them years ago.

I have no skin in this game, but when someone claims that the Norwegian state is majority shareholder in NAS, I expect it to be backed up by hard facts. Just wishy washy speculation and insinuations.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 11:43
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ReallyAnnoyed View Post
The trillion dollar fund is mainly for investment abroad and it is their own statement that the fund cannot own more than 10% of a listed company: https://www.nbim.no/no/oljefondet/sl...forvaltningen/ NAS is not listed anywhere there.

This is starting to sound more and more like smoke and mirrors to present some illusion that NAS is a state carrier just because it uses the name "Norwegian". It is really not. SAS was formed by Norway, Sweden and Denmark a long time ago, but Notway sold its shares in them years ago.

I have no skin in this game, but when someone claims that the Norwegian state is majority shareholder in NAS, I expect it to be backed up by hard facts. Just wishy washy speculation and insinuations.
Please, calm down. I am merely stating the facts. Shareholder lists have a delay, and the marketscreener you are using is dated. Varna is not even a shareholder anymore, but showing up as largest shareholder on your source. Folketrygfondet is at presently 5.85 percent, and thus biggest owner. As things stand now, and with the government guarantee, Norwegian is in a perfect position to sort out it's debt, and financial challenges by putting it's bondholders and creditors up against the wall.
Norway sold it's last shares in sas and made Norwegian it's main national airline. Without Norwegian, Norway would never had sold it's shares in sas


Last edited by uncle-traveling-matt; 9th Apr 2020 at 15:36.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 13:59
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ReallyAnnoyed View Post

I have no skin in this game, but when someone claims that the Norwegian state is majority shareholder in NAS, I expect it to be backed up by hard facts. Just wishy washy speculation and insinuations.
I hope this meets all of your expectations.



Last edited by maxpeck; 9th Apr 2020 at 14:25.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 14:19
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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Maxpeck, thanks. Which source is that? I prefer to read it myself than a screenshot.

What the Norwegian state has offered is a loan guarantee, provided that NAS came live up to some pretty tough conditions including 8% equity which they are nowhere near meeting. Only a PR manager working for NAS could come up with the ludicrous notion that NAS is "in a perfect position to sort out its debt." It is the absolutely last arrow of desperation, for what they are asking to convert massive debt to shares of an imaginary value in the hope that the creditors want a lottery ticket instead of the assests that the loans are secured against. As you can see right here: https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/luft...tatt-pa-sengen the creditors did not even know about this notion. If it was that simple, I wonder why any company would ever go bankrupt if they can just hand over shares to their creditors to make the debt magically disappear?

Should this debt to equity swap work against all odds and sense, you will still end up wiping basically all current shareholders out to nothing: https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/luft...r-redningsplan

Norwegian is not a national carrier. It is and has always been a private company. The strategy now is a variant of the "privatize the profits, but socialize the losses." An argument used is that Norwegian in lieu of its name advertises Norway around the world. Pretty desperate argumentation. If you want connectivity in Norway due to the geography, Widerøe is much better suited for that. Flying Norwegians to the sun can be achieved by any airline.

Last edited by ReallyAnnoyed; 9th Apr 2020 at 14:34.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 15:34
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ReallyAnnoyed View Post
Maxpeck, thanks. Which source is that? I prefer to read it myself than a screenshot.

What the Norwegian state has offered is a loan guarantee, provided that NAS came live up to some pretty tough conditions including 8% equity which they are nowhere near meeting. Only a PR manager working for NAS could come up with the ludicrous notion that NAS is "in a perfect position to sort out its debt." It is the absolutely last arrow of desperation, for what they are asking to convert massive debt to shares of an imaginary value in the hope that the creditors want a lottery ticket instead of the assests that the loans are secured against. As you can see right here: https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/luft...tatt-pa-sengen the creditors did not even know about this notion. If it was that simple, I wonder why any company would ever go bankrupt if they can just hand over shares to their creditors to make the debt magically disappear?

Should this debt to equity swap work against all odds and sense, you will still end up wiping basically all current shareholders out to nothing: https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/luft...r-redningsplan

Norwegian is not a national carrier. It is and has always been a private company. The strategy now is a variant of the "privatize the profits, but socialize the losses." An argument used is that Norwegian in lieu of its name advertises Norway around the world. Pretty desperate argumentation. If you want connectivity in Norway due to the geography, Widerøe is much better suited for that. Flying Norwegians to the sun can be achieved by any airline.
For someone without a skin in this game, you seem to get mighty defensive all of the sudden. Im holding on to my original opinion, and you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts, one of these just corrected and spoon feed to you by another member in here.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 16:15
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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You're welcome. It is available from here, but to get the latest updates you have to pay.

https://tekinvestor.no/aksjonaerlister/nas_ol
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 16:56
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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Well uncle, you are about as credible as Comical Ali and I only interject because you so obviously misinform on purpose. You remind me of the PR managers that NAS like to employ. The former one, DK, was completely delusional as well. I provided you with facts, but when you are fact-resistant, one can not but wonder about your obvious lack of neutrality. This is an open forum, not an organ for company propaganda.

Thanks, Maxpeck.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 17:25
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ReallyAnnoyed View Post
Well uncle, you are about as credible as Comical Ali and I only interject because you so obviously misinform on purpose. You remind me of the PR managers that NAS like to employ. The former one, DK, was completely delusional as well. I provided you with facts, but when you are fact-resistant, one can not but wonder about your obvious lack of neutrality. This is an open forum, not an organ for company propaganda.

Thanks, Maxpeck.
You call me fact-resistant. All the while you are making your assumptions based on ”facts” that you find from media, and cherry pick to fit with your so-called ”neutrality” analysis of Norwegian. You can't even find a correct list of shareholders, I believe that is quite telling. Trying to silence someone by calling me a propaganda minister from an evil regime, reflects very poorly back at you as a person.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 17:51
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Judging by the way some people are writing here you would think that Norway owns 60% of the company, while they only have 6% of the shares. Hardly relevant.
Considering the market value of the company that 6% is worth less than 10 millions euros, which is the equivalent of less than peanuts, enough to run the company for maybe 2 days. With a debt of what, 6 billions eur?
The more I look at the number the more I realize that government loans are not going to be enough.
If they want to survive they need a monstrous full blown bail out, not a guaranteed loan of a few hundreds millions.

Last edited by dirk85; 9th Apr 2020 at 19:13.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 18:36
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Sounding desperate …. their debt is simply horrific
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...e-final-gambit
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 18:46
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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Damning write up but sadly very accurate.
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Old 10th Apr 2020, 15:04
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Under water with rocks in their pockets

I personally can't see Norwegian getting themselves out of this mess now. To be honest, I'm surprised they managed to survive Winter 19/20 after last years' troubles, so without an enormous injection of cash from the Norwegian Government, I suspect they may be the first major airlines to come unstuck by the current crisis.
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