EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo
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OTH radar at LCRA would cover area and Troodos would listen. I note AAIB have offered assistance to Egypt
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a...r-flight-ms804
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a...r-flight-ms804
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We had real-time telemetry of the moon landing and 47 years ago, right upto the moment of (soft) impact with the lunar surface.
And we sit here looking at text from the news channels to try to find out what hapenned more than 5 hours ago.
The technology is there, has been discussed to death. It's not a problem with volume of data either, as has been discussed and agreed on this forum.
And we sit here looking at text from the news channels to try to find out what hapenned more than 5 hours ago.
The technology is there, has been discussed to death. It's not a problem with volume of data either, as has been discussed and agreed on this forum.
The reality is that realtime telemetry would need to be backed up by data recorders to ensure data communications problems did not result in lost data. The safety value is only in those cases where the recorders cannot be recovered which is rare. Rather than safety it is the cost of searching for and recovering data recorders that needs to be balanced against the cost of implementing such a system. If it existed the data should not in any case be released until after an accident investigation.
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It *is* interesting that all these military air-surveillance radars and satellite-born radars and optical systems never have anything to say about planes that go down, at least in time to help S&R. AF-447 and MH-370 were a real disappointment in that regard.
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I don't entirely disagree however, the ADS-B data being received before and after the incident position in the days before the incident are almost entirely from one site either near or on LTFG Gazipasa-Alanya airport on the SW Coast of Turkey. This site is consistently recording ranges of up 260nm which is a good range for ADS-B receivers and easily covers out to the LKP. So in fact there is no blind spot and the flightpath is consistently covered by the LTFG Rx. I agree a precise point cannot be inferred by this especially since there was almost three minutes from the last transmission from the aircraft until Flightawre software began posting estimated positions but, I suggest the Flightaware position is very close.
Flight Track Log MSR804 18-May-2016 CDG / LFPG - CAI / HECA FlightAware
Flightradar24, FlightAware, and RadarBox24 should all have more detailed ADS-B data on their servers.
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I am surely not going to speculate about the actual cause of this tragedy but I have seen several posts saying that it must be somethig terrorist related because airliners do not drop out of the sky like this.
Fact is they do, last years we have had some airliners down due pilot error, malfunctions, weather.... So a terrorist atack is just a possibility among other.
With the information avalaible for this accident, I have just remebered the Indonesia Air Asia A-320 that crashed on the sea after droping from its cruising altitude of FL320 due a combiation of mecanical troubles and pilot error.
Accident Report
I do not mean this accident may have anything with todays tragedy but I would like to point out that other causes other than terrorism could be involved. It has happened before
Fact is they do, last years we have had some airliners down due pilot error, malfunctions, weather.... So a terrorist atack is just a possibility among other.
With the information avalaible for this accident, I have just remebered the Indonesia Air Asia A-320 that crashed on the sea after droping from its cruising altitude of FL320 due a combiation of mecanical troubles and pilot error.
Accident Report
I do not mean this accident may have anything with todays tragedy but I would like to point out that other causes other than terrorism could be involved. It has happened before
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vmandr,
clear,
important i think to keep in mind that there are such jumps ... and other 'anomalies' that are related to the tool,
i dont know the extrapolation algorithm used by FR24... next to jumps there are also very significant turns that you would not expect ... if you look at the North Atlantic for example, you can see a plane symbol ('inside' the purple line, so not on a changeover point from a "loss of coverage ---- line" to a "solid purple line") ... change heading in an instant from say 270 to 0 and shortly thereafter to 180 before turning to 265 ...
so be careful with interpretation is the message,
clear,
important i think to keep in mind that there are such jumps ... and other 'anomalies' that are related to the tool,
i dont know the extrapolation algorithm used by FR24... next to jumps there are also very significant turns that you would not expect ... if you look at the North Atlantic for example, you can see a plane symbol ('inside' the purple line, so not on a changeover point from a "loss of coverage ---- line" to a "solid purple line") ... change heading in an instant from say 270 to 0 and shortly thereafter to 180 before turning to 265 ...
so be careful with interpretation is the message,
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MSR803 departed Cairo 1727, arrived Roissy 2153.
There was a round trip to Tunis from Cairo prior to this.
Last edited by Feathered; 19th May 2016 at 14:12.
Before an item is associated with the missing aircraft it is probably worth considering the amount of debris floating in the Mediterranean from the many migrant vessels that have sunk in the area.
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I very much doubt it. FL370 will be well below RECMAX toward the end of a flight with little fuel and a poor load. Besides high speed protection would have kicked in and even if they were in alternate law there's still a speed stability that would have lessened the likelihood of a repeat. A Jetstream could easily cause an upset but not a catastrophic loss of the hull.
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If there was indeed an explosive device on board, then it is likely to be similar to the one onboard Metrojet, which means quite simple device and not necessarily accurate.
Maybe it was just put there in Cairo and supposed to detonate after takeoff or later in that flight and just... didn't.
From a political standpoint I'd say that the impact for Egypt would be the same if the plane had crashed near France, given it is an Egyptian flight.
It would simply have added a political impact in France, just like metrojet which point was to destroy Egyptian tourism & to adress a political message to Russia. But again, endless speculation.
Maybe it was just put there in Cairo and supposed to detonate after takeoff or later in that flight and just... didn't.
From a political standpoint I'd say that the impact for Egypt would be the same if the plane had crashed near France, given it is an Egyptian flight.
It would simply have added a political impact in France, just like metrojet which point was to destroy Egyptian tourism & to adress a political message to Russia. But again, endless speculation.
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UK HMS Defender is in the area now close to the Maersk Ahram and other vessels. Maybe this is the start of defining and outlining a search area.
Surprising that speeds are between say 5-16 knots ... no vessels at 0 knots yet.
Have to note that at this stage i have no information about what these vessels are searching for. There is more going on in the Med at the moment.
Surprising that speeds are between say 5-16 knots ... no vessels at 0 knots yet.
Have to note that at this stage i have no information about what these vessels are searching for. There is more going on in the Med at the moment.
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From CNN:
The cause behind the disappearance of EgyptAir Flight 804 is more likely to be terrorism than a technical issue, Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Sharif Fathi said.
"We do not deny there is a possibility of terrorism or deny the possibility of technical fault," Fathi said at a Cairo news conference.
The cause behind the disappearance of EgyptAir Flight 804 is more likely to be terrorism than a technical issue, Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Sharif Fathi said.
"We do not deny there is a possibility of terrorism or deny the possibility of technical fault," Fathi said at a Cairo news conference.
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Arabic broadcaster Al Arabiya Tweeted that two bodies were seen floating in the search area.
EgyptAir flight MS804 missing: live updates as bodies and wreckage found after plane vanishes with 66 on board - Mirror Online
EgyptAir flight MS804 missing: live updates as bodies and wreckage found after plane vanishes with 66 on board - Mirror Online
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Actually, there is. The Egyptians have proven very clearly with the 767 flight out of New York and the Russian flight earlier this year that they cannot be trusted to tell the truth about the cause of an accident.
Originally Posted by aterpster
98% vs 02%
I don't know how you came to this conclusion (or the earlier poster), the Egyptian minister simply stated the obvious without putting a bias in favor of either. If we look at the history of accidents over the past few years involving a rapid descent from cruise without any pre-warning, I believe pilot induced loss of control is by far the leading cause, followed by deliberate pilot action, terrorism coming third. Obviously none of them can be discounted at this stage, and this is exactly what Fathi said.
If I remember correctly, the first 50 pages of the Metrojet crash thread were filled with speculation on the various possible failure modes of the HS, until grim reality started to set in.
The military radars had info on MH370 (it was found in due course) but people didn't manage to put two and two together ... and initial SAR effort was victim of a red herring.
What mil radar need is there for where AF447 went down? (Note that the satellite ACARS info did provide some information early on). Why would a mil satellite be looking at that spot when AF447 went down?
In this current case, it looks like there was a fairly quick response from the Greek defense side
Originally Posted by a few pages back, Greek media source
(all times local, Greek local time is UTC+3):
0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified.
0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified.
There's an entire reporting and tracking structure in place for Commercial air. The military stuff is built for a different purpose, not as a back up to the civil system, even though sometimes it can be helpful when called up to supplement the existent civil structure. (If that report is from solid info, it looks like the Greek military radar was helpful to me).
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 19th May 2016 at 17:07.