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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

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Old 19th May 2016, 14:06
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you very much, Mr. Mo, your information is highly appreciated.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:08
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Updates from same source progress of s&r

photo hosting sites
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:14
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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No am not on board any vessel , am connected through maersk ahram captain and the photos and updates are his. I am just sharing the info
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:14
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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OTH radar at LCRA would cover area and Troodos would listen. I note AAIB have offered assistance to Egypt
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a...r-flight-ms804
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:15
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightDream111 View Post
We had real-time telemetry of the moon landing and 47 years ago, right upto the moment of (soft) impact with the lunar surface.

And we sit here looking at text from the news channels to try to find out what hapenned more than 5 hours ago.

The technology is there, has been discussed to death. It's not a problem with volume of data either, as has been discussed and agreed on this forum.
I do not normally comment at such an early stage because it is speculative and ghoolish but what possible benefit would realtime telemetry bring in this situation? The motivation is clearly morbid curiosity rather than safety because in this as in almost all cases the data recorders will be recovered and any lessons that can be learned will be. However even morbid curiosity woudl almost certainly not be satisfied as in all probability the telemetry broadcast would simply have halted when whatever occured occurred.

The reality is that realtime telemetry would need to be backed up by data recorders to ensure data communications problems did not result in lost data. The safety value is only in those cases where the recorders cannot be recovered which is rare. Rather than safety it is the cost of searching for and recovering data recorders that needs to be balanced against the cost of implementing such a system. If it existed the data should not in any case be released until after an accident investigation.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:34
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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It *is* interesting that all these military air-surveillance radars and satellite-born radars and optical systems never have anything to say about planes that go down, at least in time to help S&R. AF-447 and MH-370 were a real disappointment in that regard.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:35
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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I don't entirely disagree however, the ADS-B data being received before and after the incident position in the days before the incident are almost entirely from one site either near or on LTFG Gazipasa-Alanya airport on the SW Coast of Turkey. This site is consistently recording ranges of up 260nm which is a good range for ADS-B receivers and easily covers out to the LKP. So in fact there is no blind spot and the flightpath is consistently covered by the LTFG Rx. I agree a precise point cannot be inferred by this especially since there was almost three minutes from the last transmission from the aircraft until Flightawre software began posting estimated positions but, I suggest the Flightaware position is very close.
It appears that the search area details available at the present are in good agreement with the last positions on the ADS-B data in this FlightAware log:

Flight Track Log MSR804 18-May-2016 CDG / LFPG - CAI / HECA FlightAware

Flightradar24, FlightAware, and RadarBox24 should all have more detailed ADS-B data on their servers.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:37
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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I am surely not going to speculate about the actual cause of this tragedy but I have seen several posts saying that it must be somethig terrorist related because airliners do not drop out of the sky like this.
Fact is they do, last years we have had some airliners down due pilot error, malfunctions, weather.... So a terrorist atack is just a possibility among other.
With the information avalaible for this accident, I have just remebered the Indonesia Air Asia A-320 that crashed on the sea after droping from its cruising altitude of FL320 due a combiation of mecanical troubles and pilot error.
Accident Report
I do not mean this accident may have anything with todays tragedy but I would like to point out that other causes other than terrorism could be involved. It has happened before
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:44
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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vmandr,

clear,

important i think to keep in mind that there are such jumps ... and other 'anomalies' that are related to the tool,

i dont know the extrapolation algorithm used by FR24... next to jumps there are also very significant turns that you would not expect ... if you look at the North Atlantic for example, you can see a plane symbol ('inside' the purple line, so not on a changeover point from a "loss of coverage ---- line" to a "solid purple line") ... change heading in an instant from say 270 to 0 and shortly thereafter to 180 before turning to 265 ...

so be careful with interpretation is the message,
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:45
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GeeRam View Post
Likely wasn't ex-Cairo before CDG, flightradar24 has SU-GCC visiting Tunis & Asmara in Eritrea on May 18 before flying the return from Paris to Cairo.......but your theory is therefore still very feasible.
According to Flightaware, the accident aircraft flew to CDG/LFPG direct from Cairo prior to the last flight.

MSR803 departed Cairo 1727, arrived Roissy 2153.


There was a round trip to Tunis from Cairo prior to this.

Last edited by Feathered; 19th May 2016 at 15:12.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:57
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Before an item is associated with the missing aircraft it is probably worth considering the amount of debris floating in the Mediterranean from the many migrant vessels that have sunk in the area.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:58
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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I very much doubt it. FL370 will be well below RECMAX toward the end of a flight with little fuel and a poor load. Besides high speed protection would have kicked in and even if they were in alternate law there's still a speed stability that would have lessened the likelihood of a repeat. A Jetstream could easily cause an upset but not a catastrophic loss of the hull.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:58
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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If there was indeed an explosive device on board, then it is likely to be similar to the one onboard Metrojet, which means quite simple device and not necessarily accurate.

Maybe it was just put there in Cairo and supposed to detonate after takeoff or later in that flight and just... didn't.

From a political standpoint I'd say that the impact for Egypt would be the same if the plane had crashed near France, given it is an Egyptian flight.

It would simply have added a political impact in France, just like metrojet which point was to destroy Egyptian tourism & to adress a political message to Russia. But again, endless speculation.
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Old 19th May 2016, 14:59
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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UK HMS Defender is in the area now close to the Maersk Ahram and other vessels. Maybe this is the start of defining and outlining a search area.

Surprising that speeds are between say 5-16 knots ... no vessels at 0 knots yet.

Have to note that at this stage i have no information about what these vessels are searching for. There is more going on in the Med at the moment.
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Old 19th May 2016, 15:01
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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From CNN:

The cause behind the disappearance of EgyptAir Flight 804 is more likely to be terrorism than a technical issue, Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Sharif Fathi said.

"We do not deny there is a possibility of terrorism or deny the possibility of technical fault," Fathi said at a Cairo news conference.
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Old 19th May 2016, 15:01
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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Arabic broadcaster Al Arabiya Tweeted that two bodies were seen floating in the search area.

EgyptAir flight MS804 missing: live updates as bodies and wreckage found after plane vanishes with 66 on board - Mirror Online
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Old 19th May 2016, 15:11
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by HeartyMeatballs View Post
I do not think there's any significance of it being inside of Egyptian airspace. If it was sabotage then how would the perpetrator know that they were in the Egyptian FIR?
Actually, there is. The Egyptians have proven very clearly with the 767 flight out of New York and the Russian flight earlier this year that they cannot be trusted to tell the truth about the cause of an accident.
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Old 19th May 2016, 15:14
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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A number of vessels in the area were increasing speed to 11 knots.
As far as i know there are no photos in the public domain now that show identified aircraft components.
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Old 19th May 2016, 15:18
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aterpster
98% vs 02%

I don't know how you came to this conclusion (or the earlier poster), the Egyptian minister simply stated the obvious without putting a bias in favor of either. If we look at the history of accidents over the past few years involving a rapid descent from cruise without any pre-warning, I believe pilot induced loss of control is by far the leading cause, followed by deliberate pilot action, terrorism coming third. Obviously none of them can be discounted at this stage, and this is exactly what Fathi said.


If I remember correctly, the first 50 pages of the Metrojet crash thread were filled with speculation on the various possible failure modes of the HS, until grim reality started to set in.
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Old 19th May 2016, 15:24
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by edmundronald View Post
It *is* interesting that all these military air-surveillance radars and satellite-born radars and optical systems never have anything to say about planes that go down, at least in time to help S&R. AF-447 and MH-370 were a real disappointment in that regard.
How is that interesting?
The military radars had info on MH370 (it was found in due course) but people didn't manage to put two and two together ... and initial SAR effort was victim of a red herring.
What mil radar need is there for where AF447 went down? (Note that the satellite ACARS info did provide some information early on). Why would a mil satellite be looking at that spot when AF447 went down?

In this current case, it looks like there was a fairly quick response from the Greek defense side
Originally Posted by a few pages back, Greek media source
(all times local, Greek local time is UTC+3):
0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified.
so I'd like to know: what's your beef?

There's an entire reporting and tracking structure in place for Commercial air. The military stuff is built for a different purpose, not as a back up to the civil system, even though sometimes it can be helpful when called up to supplement the existent civil structure. (If that report is from solid info, it looks like the Greek military radar was helpful to me).

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 19th May 2016 at 18:07.
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