B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

[Chronus]

Originally Posted by Vortex Thing

Chronos

I'm not boss bashing. I'm telling the facts as they are having flown that specific aircraft, having flown with some of the departed, having flown for the airline, having been subject to its "just culture" for many years, having had my family live in Dubai and having seen good men and women come and go.

Not only am I giving my opinion what I am saying is accompanied by rock solid irrefutable proof.

Now I am not saying the sole cause was two men but the devil is in the detail. Accountable Manager or post holder de facto has responsibilites.

The last 5 mins of the flight are indeed very important for many reasons but whatever those reasons be they act of god, mishandling, catastrophic failure they were made possible by the launch of the aircraft from base in weather in which they not only predicted not to be able to land ut was predicted for the entire duration of their fuel to be highly unlikely to allow them to do so.

I've been dispatched from Dubai in similar enough circumstance that their for the grace of god go I. FZ mgt make Enron look clean.

If you think that the whole company ethos and modus operandi has no bearing on why the plane was even airborne and not on the ground either at the ALTN or in DXB then I fear you misunderstand the swiss cheese model.

Why have any form of regulation if we never ever invoke it! This is why the resignation rate is where it is.

One of our pilots in his exit interview was asked why he was leaving. He told them I've been in the airline here for 3 years. You have not been remotely interested in anything I have to offer, anything I can bring to help or used any of my skills other than flying a plane. Now that I am leaving you want to know why! This is why!

This goes so deep it is so deeply engrained that it is rotten to the core. People have a right to know.

VORTEX THING I do of course share your sentiments, whole heartedly, and fully appreciate the rigours of work for dubious operators. It is just that at this stage I thought it rather premature to speculate on things such as company culture.
My thoughts were entirely focussed on the most likely cause, given all that is known thus far.
On the issue of operators, perhaps you may recall the Isparta MD83 crash. A few from management and authority are having to get used to porridge as kebabs are no longer on the menu for them. But hey, what comes first, corporate greed or safety. After all who are we to dispute it.

[Otto Throttle]

The "R" on the roster can't be taken to mean very much. Aside from asking for a particular trip, you could request a start or finish time. However, the system has a cruel sense of humour, as "Finish by 0200L" could easily see you with a duty commencing at 0300L as technically it complies and thus your "requested" bid is successfully granted.

[bud leon]

I would not contest that this may be a fatiguing work pattern, but at the risk of being flamed would suggest that you can't really ask to fly three nights in a row and then complain about being fatigued. Whilst it may not be fashionable to defend Flydubai in this thread, I am far junior to both of these guys, but on the same day operated a much easier flight ending about 9pm local time, so presumably had they bid for day flights they would have got them, as I did.

The pilot can't complain about being fatigued because he is deceased.

Many of the comments in this thread, if truly representative of industry operations and perceptions, indicate the aviation industry is lagging a long way behind other high risk industries when it comes to understanding and managing fatigue.

Humans are notoriously bad at responding to fatigue, it's why driving and resting times in the heavy vehicle industry in most advanced economies is heavily regulated.

[skadi]

This video shows the GA into the clouds followed by the steep descend to the ground.



skadi

[glad rag]

Poor guys, just listened to the transcript, very difficult, with the change of units back and forth.

Terrible accident.

[HDP]

If (and that's a big if) pilot error is blamed for this accident, then it's going to be terribly hard for their 2 widows who are both pregnant. I hope flydubai will provide them with counselling, but I don't get my hopes up.

[Alain67]

Originally Posted by Ngineer

Hard to tell 100%, but the aircraft looks well lit up as it descends in both videos I have seen. This would also rule out fuel exhaustion and subsequent engine/idg failure. Looks like a definitive stall for whatever reasons.

Is a 60° pitch down compatible with a stall ??

[NeuroAvGeek]

Vortex Thing,

I know it goes against industry dogma, but if the safety culture is so bad and it stems from the chief pilot's office, why not leak something to the media? The public loves a scapegoat especially one with a face to blame, why not let that be Vial's (or whomever's) face?

Especially if the company takes a financial hit, they'll be looking to reform their public image...

[armchairpilot94116]

Stalls/Upsets:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFRAQ-71U8A


Ci 676:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUNeI-JOgKA

Ci 676: stall / crash during approach / 1000 feet higher then alt indication.
The Crash of Flight CI676, a China Airlines Airbus A300, Taipei, Taiwan, Monday 16 February, 1998: What We Know So Far



AA recovery techniques:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35Zy_rl8WuM

[Alain67]

armchairpilot94116, thanks for these links !

[Continental-520]

Tatelyle...

I have seen and flown worse rosters, with more night work and multiple sectors. This is pretty much industry standard, in the low end of the market. And yes, sleeping on duty was fairly standard, esp at 03:00 or 05:00. Someone mentioned I was blaming all airlines. Not at all, but there is a significant section at the low end of the industry where this is quite normal.

Being the norm doesn't mean it is right. If you take the deeper meaning of what Vortex Thing has said in his numerous good posts, the culture that permeates in FZ and others in the region is such that people are very reluctant to draw the line in the sand and say no to operating a duty when things like fatigue and sickness mount up. In the western unionised world, getting a black mark against your name might be the extent of what lingers in the back of your mind. In the Middle East, losing your job is a consequence that is always close to the front of your mind.

Fact.


520.

[Vortex Thing]

CSENG

We fly manually all the time. FDB are not an automated airline. Hand flying is encouraged and practiced as often as viable. We use the autopilot in the cruise and that is pretty much it. for everyday. Some guys put the autopilot in at 1000ft after take off, some wait until flaps up no lights, some hand fly up to FL410. (If were not too heavy or first cruise ALT)

We frequently hand fly from well above platform to touchdown.

Whenever in the NG you disconnect the autopilot you disconnect the auto throttle. It was something that I had to unlearn when I did my 777/787 type rating as in that aircraft you never (I'll put very rarely as a caveat) disconnect the authothrottle.

The only time in an NG that you fly mixed auto manual is if you disconnect the AP, then deselect the auto throttle but not disconnect it. This is known as deselecting speed and is something I have down, AS SOP, in other airlines but something that FDB DO NOT DO. (for the avoidance of doubt)

So in FDB it was simple if you disconnect the AP then the AT comes out as well. As there are no automatic approaches flown most of the above conversation about modes and trim bias etc are simply not relevant in this or any other FDB case.

[Aluminium shuffler]

Chesty, you are arguing against me while repeating some of my points. So did B777 and Cloud. Guys, read a post properly before arguing with it. With 13k on type, I'm well aware of how the system works, its flaws and how to use it.

[Alice025]

Originally Posted by glad rag

Poor guys, just listened to the transcript, very difficult, with the change of units back and forth.

Terrible accident.

It is also that for other planes on arrival to Rostov that night, it was easier to decide on the alternatives, as they would picture nearby airports and their runways, likely (the same bad) weather conditions there, if their pax require international? customs. passports/ can that be a domestic airport or one would need an international one. Then, their passengers would be from the area, not necessarily in bad want of Rostov arrival exactly. All the small things helping to take the decision. In that case locals opted for Krasnodar and Taganrog, instead, one int'l one domestic and partly out of operation but operating nevertheless ; (little demand, crisis, but runway there).
Rostov-Taganrog 70 km; Rostov-Krasnodar 280 km. Normally would be Rostov-Donetsk as a spare airport - 200 km, international, but that's now Ukraine, but no visas, but the runway there is bombed out. Etc. quick thoughts. Easier for locals :o(


I mean, if passengers are all local as they were in the case, they might be happy to run away from the plane at another nearby airport as in reality closer to their homes and won't incur any costs to the airline upkeeping them until the flight to Rostov.


Instead, the pilot asks the airport, very carefully, if the weather is any better, clearly would be glad to know more. is replied strictly technically in not the best English.
second tongue for both.

[Airbubba]

armchairpilot94116, thanks for these links !

I posted links earlier to descriptions of the China Airlines A300 crashes in Nagoya and Taipei but they were removed, perhaps as not pertinent to a B-738 mishap. However, both of these crashes had stalls involving misuse of automation on approach.

One of the links armchairpilot94116 posted is an article by Professor Peter B. Ladkin. His formal analysis of accident causality has had broad influence in aviation safety the past couple of decades. And, he often posts here in PPRuNe as PBL.

Is a 60° pitch down compatible with a stall ??

I'd say it would be compatible with the departure from controlled flight after the stall. As someone pointed out, almost inevitably, one wing stalls first, there is a roll moment and once the bank goes near vertical recovery down low is not likely. Whether the plane is in a stall as it descends nose down in a near vertical bank is academic and I don't claim to know.

[CAT1]

I'm surprised no-one has mentioned the possibility of a flap mis-selection on the go around as a possible cause of the stall.......it's been done to me once in the past, fortunately not with the same results.

[oicur12.again]

"If (and that's a big if) pilot error is blamed for this accident"

Is it a big "If"?

The vast majority of accidents are pilot error.

This probably is too, statistically.

There but . . . . .

[HDP]

"If (and that's a big if) pilot error is blamed for this accident"

Is it a big "If"?

The vast majority of accidents are pilot error.

This probably is too, statistically.

There but . . . . .

It was sarcasm, which probably isn't too appropriate right now...

[Comanche]

Another possibility is A/P selected after Go-around (which they would normally do) but not actually engaging due insufficient pilot trimming (or Control Wheel Steering engaged instead of A/P) and unnoticed by crew causing excessive pitch and stall with insufficient altitude to recover

[Otto Throttle]

With regard to domestic carriers diverting, in fairness it is very doubtful they arrived at ROV with close to 4 hours worth of fuel and probably did not have the option to hold. Right or wrong, FZ at least had that additional option and chose to exercise it without compromising any subsequent decision to also divert.

The forecast at the closer diversion fields to ROV also wasn't great, so not very many appealing options that particular night.