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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

Old 20th Mar 2016, 00:19
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ZOOKER
Until this incident, I had no idea that some ANSPs reported wind speeds in m/sec. Surely, if airspeeds are in knots, W/V should be reported in the same units?
You obviously don't fly to (or over!) CIS or China then. Winds are always reported in mps and this is well understood by crews who operate in these areas (including the unfortunate FZ crew). Converting from mps to kts is a non-event and requires no mental capacity, just multiply value in mps by 2 to get kts.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 00:42
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Just listening to truncated 9 minute audio is fatigue inducing. One has to appreciate aircrew holding two hours patiently in addition to unknown numbers of hours they already put in on that day.

RIP.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 01:07
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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Been a few accidents in the past with aircraft holding for long periods in Icing conditions then when back to approach speeds have stalled. Lets hope this is not the case.

As far as I am aware all holding should be done in the clean configuration, no flap in the 73 for this reason.

I haven't looked at the Wx at the time..... Just putting it out there
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 01:36
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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or is it entirely the prerogative of the pilot?
Yes, technically totally up to the pilot. But pilot maybe in touch with the airline dispatchers and be under pressure to land at the destination, airlines hate such disruptions as alternate airports, it costs them $$$.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 03:23
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone thought that maybe, just maybe during the second missed approach with a high body angle one Engine flamed out from fuel exhaustion from low fuel qty in that main tank? They were holding for quite a while. When it flamed out, the other one at high thrust, high nose attitude....... speed fell below VMCA.......stalled spun in......
It's possible......
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 03:33
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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As far as icing is concerned, I was under the impression that the aircraft had been holding at FL150. I suspect given the weather in that area at the time, this was in clear air. There has also been speculation as to why the crew requested a climb to FL80 after the missed approach, and I would also suspect that this is related to a suitable level of clear air and to facilitate a subsequent diversion.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 04:01
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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@ACMS

It was posted very early in the thread that they had around 8.5 hours endurance and the accident happened around 6 hours into the flight. They still had 2.5 hours worth of fuel left as per the above figures.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 04:08
  #228 (permalink)  
 
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Fair enough, we'll see in good time.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 04:20
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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This is clearly a botched G/A into a stall.
Given the apparent lawn dart impact, and the second approach GA profile, all those expecting the full stall scenario are likely to be disappointed. A stall which continues would result in a much flatter impact attitude at much lower speeds.

The Tatarstan Boeing 737-500 which crashed at Kazan accident will be much closer to what happened in this accident. In that accident, MAK could only suggest the possibility of a push into a dive caused by Somatogravic Illusion, because the CVR was inoperative. I suspect we will have an operable CVR which may this time confirm an instance of Somatogravic Illusion.

The Somatogravic Illusion is a complicated sounding name, but all it really means is that linear acceleration can fool you into thinking you are pitching up when you are actually pitching over into a dive. If you pull up too steeply on the initial go around and need to pitch over a bit to maintain airspeed, you must use your attitude indicator to make the adjustment. If you get behind the aircraft and unconsciously start flying by the seat of your pants, you can get yourself in trouble very quickly. Modern twin jets are capable of pretty good acceleration rates, especially when light. More than enough to cause that Somatogravic Illusion effect in an unsuspecting aircrew.

To those professional pilots who have a good understanding of the pitfalls of hand flying, I apologize for the fundamental nature of the above paragraph, but I feel it is necessary to write to the LCD (Lowest Common Denominator) in the current situation.

As to why the crew was able to execute a safe GA on the first approach and failed to do so on the second, it is probable that the Go Arounds were just done differently.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 05:12
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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What have we got so far in terms of evidence, taking in into account the source/reliability?

* The weather wasn’t great but not limiting in terms of surface conditions
* Two approaches were made, with a period of extended holding between them
* Two missed approaches were flown, both from >1,000’ AGL
* Fuel quantity does not appear to be an issue
* No urgency/distress calls were given
* Up to and including the last RT exchange, communications appeared normal
* During the first part of the final missed approach, speed and altitude increase
* After getting to c. 4,000’, speed carries on increasing but altitude decreases rapidly
* The final descent to impact is short, in the region of 10s

As the FDRs have been recovered it shouldn’t be too long until there are accurate figures, assuming they are readable. At the moment we only have the FR24 data, which although should not be taken as gospel, is at least internally consistent. As it’s all we’ve got to go on, it shows in speed vs. altitude pretty much what you would expect from a GA flown with TOGA thrust, right up to the moment it starts a rapid descent. It doesn’t show the speed -> altitude trade and excessive RoC that you’d expect from a pitch excursion. Also, the extrapolated speeds appear to be well removed from unaccelerated stall speeds, in any configuration.

All in all, a bit puzzling at the moment. Why did they GA approaching 1,000’? Could be as simple as they did not make their SAC or there was a WS caution/warning. Whatever was happening, they obviously didn’t like it so threw it away before getting any closer to the ground. Something happened during the missed approach that turned a 4,000fpm climb into a 10,000fpm+ descent within seconds, if the trace is to be believed. Very odd...
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 05:24
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Spatial disorientation - awful feeling on a dark stormy night.

Similar to Gulf Air 72, Flash 604......
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 05:26
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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I always brief the go around actions with the other pilot if I'm ever in doubt that we may need to go missed in bad weather. What I mean by actions, is what we as a crew are going to physically do interns of reconfiguring the aeroplane, additional to the turn at ****, climb to ****. I've nearly killed myself twice by botching up missed approaches when I once flew in single pilot ops.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 05:41
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DP
I've nearly killed myself twice by botching up missed approaches when I once flew in single pilot ops.
I got the stick shaker during a high altitude go around at KSEA in a 767. The cause of the go around was a flap malfunction and I was trying to make the go around without using the TOGA switches.

Scared the luv'n ****e out of myself. Bought the F/O a steak dinner at Morton's for that eff up.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 06:35
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Otto Throttle
As far as icing is concerned, I was under the impression that the aircraft had been holding at FL150. I suspect given the weather in that area at the time, this was in clear air. There has also been speculation as to why the crew requested a climb to FL80 after the missed approach, and I would also suspect that this is related to a suitable level of clear air and to facilitate a subsequent diversion.
They were definitely not in clear air at FL150. Again, check the Cloud top temperatures here (mouseover, indication top left on screen): With -25 to -35 degrees clouds higher up by far.

Satellit Top Alarm-Bild vom 19.03.2016, 01:45 Uhr - Ukraine | Wetter von kachelmann.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 06:54
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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The Somatogravic Illusion is a complicated sounding name, but all it really means is that linear acceleration can fool you into thinking you are pitching up when you are actually pitching over into a dive. If you pull up too steeply on the initial go around and need to pitch over a bit to maintain airspeed, you must use your attitude indicator to make the adjustment. If you get behind the aircraft and unconsciously start flying by the seat of your pants, you can get yourself in trouble very quickly. Modern twin jets are capable of pretty good acceleration rates, especially when light. More than enough to cause that Somatogravic Illusion effect in an unsuspecting aircrew.
With all the jet transport go-arounds in one day around the world and add to that all the catapult assisted take offs of jet fighters from aircraft carriers around the world every day and night, you would think there would be hundreds of crashes due to Somatogravic illusions. But obviously there are not.

Often the sort of airline transport crashes we are seeing where an IMC go-around has turned into a steep climb followed by a stall and dive into the ground, turn out in the end to be nothing more than poor instrument flying ability by the pilot.

Somatogravic Illusions are often used as the catch-all excuse for crashes like these because it's hard to believe there are airline pilots out there simply cannot fly on instruments when most of their career has been watching an autopilot do its work.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 07:17
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Any thought that they just flew right into a cell and got spat out the bottom?
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 07:21
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody
Any thought that they just flew right into a cell and got spat out the bottom?
There was no such thing as a cell. It is not summer. There was no thunderstorm. It was just an average wintry crap weather which happens at 100 places every day in this time of the year.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 07:53
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Have a read of page 1 of this thread and the wx posted there has CBs on it. I would agree that it would be unlikely however still possible
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 07:58
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody
Have a read of page 1 of this thread and the wx posted there has CBs on it
As I wrote in my Post on page 1, in Russia the observation of CB is 20 to 50 times more frequent than in any other country in the world. The reason for this unknown is unknown to me. They do so in ANY kind of non-stratiform precip. If there is a shower, it's always a CB in Russia. There was not one lightning flash and again, just look at the sat imagery of the time, no "cells" and there was also technically no CB. Over the town itself top cloud temperature was -26, you can check it yourself with mouseover. This has nothing to do with a CB. At least some rules in Meteorology also apply for Russia.

Satellit Top Alarm-Bild vom 19.03.2016, 01:45 Uhr - Ukraine | Wetter von kachelmann.

Last edited by weatherdude; 20th Mar 2016 at 08:01. Reason: Typo
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 08:24
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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I'm struggling to understand why he was hand flying it, surely at 1500ft the autopilot would still be engaged? And therefore the GA would be flown via the autopilot too. It's a dark and stormy night, not a time to exercising your hand flying skills.
Or are all GAs on the B737 hand flown?
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